Search found 87 matches

by Mike59
Wed Oct 04, 2023 11:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?
Replies: 13
Views: 13909

Re: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?

And does it ever take courage to buy more when it's a sea of red in the bond market every day?! :-\ When I see business news and my immediate reaction is "this is it, it's all over, what we thought was true isn't anymore..." , the old me would've sold , I know better that times like this "may" be a ...
by Mike59
Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68375

Re: International stocks?

Some ideas I've considered in my PP : internal correlation of the portfolio and stock valuation Being in Canada I feel I can't do domestic stocks as our stock market has so many commodities (oil and gas producers, gold stocks etc) and sentiment about the commodities sector seems to trickle into our...
by Mike59
Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:16 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68375

Re: International stocks?

Some ideas I've considered in my PP : internal correlation of the portfolio and stock valuation Being in Canada I feel I can't do domestic stocks as our stock market has so many commodities (oil and gas producers, gold stocks etc) and sentiment about the commodities sector seems to trickle into our ...
by Mike59
Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95467

Re: PP Mistakes

I regret buying long bonds near the top in the last 2-3 years, hoping that an agnostic dollar cost averaging approach would serve me well in the long run. I have become somewhat less purist and time some of my purchases , preferring to accumulate cash to 35% allocation then spread it around , typica...
by Mike59
Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year
Replies: 7
Views: 5884

Re: Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year

YTD:
TLT -6.99%
GLD: + 4.10%
SPY: + 16.99% / VT : 11.93%
by Mike59
Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 230
Views: 111264

Re: BTC in the PP

Thinking of adding to my BTC position this week but the psychological part is always a hurdle, never fun adding to flat/losing positions or ones and seeing them go lower. Better part of me knows any serious green in my portfolios was bought during dips (I have a 2x on gold when it was $1000/oz). The...
by Mike59
Wed May 18, 2022 8:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657211

Re: The GOLD scream room

To me gold is more insurance against financial calamity and less an inflation hedge. I like the last post about small amounts of inflation being an "annoyance". We live in a highly manipulated market where everything remains controlled and stable, the Fed appears to have the steering wheel. We may h...
by Mike59
Wed May 18, 2022 8:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 9
Views: 3274

coping with a LTT bear market

It's interesting to read all the posts about bonds that ask how to compensate for the crash we've witnessed, sentiment seems to be extremely poor. I see ideas floating around such as switching to lower duration bonds , abandoning the permanent portfolio 4x25% structure, going international etc. Is e...
by Mike59
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 28
Views: 24880

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

Having been through a couple of cycles and having done a ton of research, I can tell you that investing up front is statistically most likely to return you the highest. You're losing out on bond yield, stock dividends and capital gains on the sidelines, ultimately you miss out on the power of compou...
by Mike59
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: The Single Best Equity ETF for Canadians
Replies: 2
Views: 8245

Re: The Single Best Equity ETF for Canadians

The ETF is an interesting idea but I feel there is too much Canadian exposure for a domestic investor. By CAPE ratio Canada is over 20 and has been more overvalued than Europe and EM for some time, for this reason I have no interest unless the market took a serious haircut. With the US ratio being e...
by Mike59
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 166835

Re: What's going on with silver?

In my experience precious metals trading is best done by relative valuation compared to a long term mean. I use a 50 month SMA. As it stands silver is on my watch list and I would say it's neutral (close to it's 50 month SMA), I've been loading up on Platinum in the last year in my VP and I see much...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Viability of HBPP with perpetually low interest rate Fed
Replies: 21
Views: 13697

Re: Viability of HBPP with perpetually low interest rate Fed

Concerns about perpetually low interest rates are perfectly valid, they can go lower, and may even go negative as you've stated. The problem is- what if you align yourself for this expectation and are wrong? I'd rather have a portfolio that takes my emotions out of it and forces me to mechanically t...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 166835

Re: What's going on with silver?

kitco close 2019/04/24: $15.00 currently sits at $14.94 Problem with silver is that I love it, and you're not supposed to fall in love with investments right? :-[ I still have too much from the $20-50 era and added it to my PP as along term holding so the losses aren't realized. Have done much bette...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?
Replies: 22
Views: 13262

Re: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?

From a CAPE/Schiller ratio standpoint, EM is where you want to be if you're looking for higher long term returns. I've bought nothing but EM and Developed Europe for my PP for the last couple of years, both are looking a little richer than I'd like right now (as with most world equities). The true o...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Uranium
Replies: 2
Views: 2406

Uranium

Uranium stocks are down 90% off their all time highs. Anyone else eyeing this ? I own the components of URA individually (Cameco/Nexgen/Uranium Participation) with exposure in the US, especially with this talk of Trump looking to put Tarrifs on foreign uranium. As I've heard on some podcasts, either...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Canada EWC ETF a value play?
Replies: 14
Views: 9995

Re: Canada EWC ETF a value play?

Canadian investor here and I'd discourage buying EWC. Canadian banks are betting heavily on Canadian real estate which is probably one of the world's largest bubbles right now, I would steer far away if you're looking at a value play. On a more technical basis, CAPE ratios suggest Canada is still ne...
by Mike59
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP performance for Q1 2018
Replies: 16
Views: 13050

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Another Canadian here, I run a slightly modified Permanent portfolio, interesting how currency, hedging and exposure can tilt the results. The figures below do not count dividends... Gold: CGL.C (unhedged gold etf): +4.76% Stocks (split between Developed europe and emerging markets without any US or...
by Mike59
Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 192
Views: 97177

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

so, this story drags on, the discounts are ridiculous compared to NAV (which I'm ok with, I've stacked CEF recently at -12%, looking to hit a rebalancing band soon and throw some cash at GTU which sits at -6%). Surprisingly  my precious metal positions are in the green... Can anyone help translate t...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic
Replies: 7
Views: 4120

Re: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

US S&P futures down -1.5% , ouch!  If this sticks overnight it's the most excitement /volatility I've seen in a long time, takes me back to August 2011 fiscal cliff days...  ;D
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux
Replies: 28
Views: 15003

Re: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux

I pulled out the old laptop, and used a puppy linux liveCD to test. I think this might be a reasonable option while I explore alternatives [or not]. I think I need to wipe WindowsXP and install a full version of linux on the HD. I am not that familiar with the difference between all the distros. Do...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic
Replies: 7
Views: 4120

Re: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic

Libertarian666 wrote: I'm shocked! shocked, that gambling is going on there.
Of course this won't have any effect on gold... or will it?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

moonshot straight up, over $10 at the open .... Should be an interesting week
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: America's Global Image
Replies: 20
Views: 9893

Re: America's Global Image

What the FUCK, Canada? Take it from an average Canadian, most of us have a favorable view of the US, even if we differ on some political views. Quebec is the primary reason for that figure, it has about 10 million people (maybe 1/3 of the country and perhaps reflects 1/3 of the hate in that poll) ,...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux
Replies: 28
Views: 15003

Re: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux

I have a 2 year old acer win8 notebook I got on sale for about 300 , Windows 8 junked it, and it got worse with every update. I installed a dual-boot with linux and at least it's usable. You can play around with it for free, and it might buy you some time. Xubuntu, it's lean and light- not perfect, ...
by Mike59
Sat May 30, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 192
Views: 97177

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

Per some of my other posts I've averaged into GTU quite nicely during the discount (I recall some days below 10% from NAV), I'm hoping this doesn't go through... If it goes through or hits NAV before the deal I'm considering selling the GTU and moving to CEF. I figure the nice 7% or so gain I've mad...
by Mike59
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What Drives Gold
Replies: 15
Views: 10798

Re: What Drives Gold

Gold's price isn't simply driven by the supply-demand ratio, the dollar's movements, inflation, oil price, geopolitical events and so on.  The market's way of functioning is far more complex and less transparent. Brief and brilliant summary. It climbs a wall of worry, and anything can serve as that...