and there are even certain alt coins being developed with even better built-in anonymity Isn't this part of what makes bitcoins so risky? What's the barrier to entry here for newcomers besides branding? Exactly. There is an unlimited number of other algorithms that have at least as good characteris...

This is where I'm personally more comfortable with a trend following layer on top of the PP, like a 200 day MA, so that if it turns out long bonds are "broken," the PP won't continue plowing more and more money into them during rebalance events. If I'm wrong and LTTs can continue to skyro...

and there are even certain alt coins being developed with even better built-in anonymity Isn't this part of what makes bitcoins so risky? What's the barrier to entry here for newcomers besides branding? You're right. There are no barriers other than branding, or more specifically, the network effec...

It's wacky time! I'm starting to thing a 2-5% allocation to bitcoin could be prudent. I think we all agree cash is going to be clamped down on in the coming years. That's already the global trend. Without all digital USD, government policies to spark inflation with negative rates won't work. Tax col...

This is where I'm personally more comfortable with a trend following layer on top of the PP, like a 200 day MA, so that if it turns out long bonds are "broken," the PP won't continue plowing more and more money into them during rebalance events. If I'm wrong and LTTs can continue to skyroc...

Interesting idea to short the smaller contracts. However, aren't some of them fairly low volume with large bid/ask spreads? I've read that's the case for the smaller gold contracts, for example. I think I'd feel more comfortable staying with the very liquid full size contracts, filling in where nee...

How would one rebalance with futures? Is it possible to trade fractions of a contract? I assume not, which means trades are in approx. $100K blocks. Also, the 20%-30% max. DD stated earlier for the PP sounds high. 1980 had the largest DD that I'm aware of: 20% according to http://www.peaktotrough.c...

How would one rebalance with futures? Is it possible to trade fractions of a contract? I assume not, which means trades are in approx. $100K blocks. Also, the 20%-30% max. DD stated earlier for the PP sounds high. 1980 had the largest DD that I'm aware of: 20% according to http://www.peaktotrough.c...

I can't comment on this subject anymore; it's getting too much on my nerves. Sorry my questions about the PP have made you so angry. Are you doing OK? Because this really isn't something to raise your blood pressure over. I'm talking about a portfolio here, not religion or politics. Maybe after mor...

Is a simple solution the LTT "price ceiling problem" zero coupon bonds? E.g., using something like ZROZ? If the problem with LTTs is that their price is capped because their yields are "basemented" near the zero rate bound, then wouldn't zero coupon long term bonds be the answer ...

"Why should ______ continue to go up?" You can substitute many things for PP in that questions..... Real estate, 60/40, any number of lazy portfolios, farm land, silver, muni bonds, etc, etc. Unfortunately no one can ever answer these with certainty. My belief is that balanced portfolios ...

+1 What clacy said (except you said it better than me, clacy). "Why should ______ continue to go up? This gets to the heart of it, and I hope my posts didn't rub you the wrong way, Sam Lowry of Brazil, but after all your thread title features the whole pp, not the bond ceiling. Not at all. :) ...

Just jumping in to remind folks of the Swiss PP YTD results that Lang posted somewhere in the last couple of days. He had the long Swiss bond (50-year issue maturing in 2064) returning about 30% YTD. And thanks Sam for pushing the issue. I think we're all interested in what happens to long bonds if...

We're in uncharted territory here. The pp could turn out to be a miserable performer. I just can't think of a better way to invest, and long bonds appear to be a crucial part of the plan. I get the "I can't think of a better way to invest sentiment." I wouldn't be here or waste my time th...

It just sticks out like an elephant in the living room because the whole spirit of the PP is that it's supposed to be very simple, and in particular, it's supposed to be quite simple to understand how it will respond and still work in any economic environment. The plausible, simple explanation for ...

We're in uncharted territory here. The pp could turn out to be a miserable performer. I just can't think of a better way to invest, and long bonds appear to be a crucial part of the plan. I get the "I can't think of a better way to invest sentiment." I wouldn't be here or waste my time th...

I think you're a little too obsessed with "upward drift" coming from Treasury bonds. The PP will do fine with the other three assets just as it did during the 70's when everyone and their mother was convinced the USD was absolutely and utterly doomed. If we get to a point like that again ...

We're in uncharted territory here. The pp could turn out to be a miserable performer. I just can't think of a better way to invest, and long bonds appear to be a crucial part of the plan. I get the "I can't think of a better way to invest sentiment." I wouldn't be here or waste my time th...

So if you think LTTs are not a problem for the PP, then you either believe interest rates will go negative and keep getting more negative long term OR you believe the PP can function as it has been with only 2 assets out of 4 drifting up. Is there another choice I'm missing? Well, we're only at 2.3...

It's entirely possible that 3 or even 4 of the PP asset classes will continue to go up, because the US looks relatively wonderful compared to the turd that is the rest of the world. At least for those of us in the US. Someone else mentioned that we're in uncharted territory with rates this low for ...

LTTs cannot be timed, just like gold and stocks. But unlike gold and stocks, they do have an interest rate floor. We don't know exactly what that floor is, but we do know if rates stay persistently negative, it will endanger the entire financial system as banks and insurance companies have their bu...

And gold is worthless because it's going to be synthesized. And cash is no good due to runaway printing. And the stock market is rigged. So, what else are you going to buy? I don't see what what I said has to do with what you said. I'm saying LTTs have an inherent ceiling because their price is a f...

People will still be productive and have to put their money somewhere? Right, just as people worked and were productive from 1950 to 1982, when they put their money in all sorts of things, one of which was not LTTs, which went pretty much straight down in price for over 3 decades. Since the PP wasn...

LTTs cannot be timed, just like gold and stocks. But unlike gold and stocks, they do have an interest rate floor. We don't know exactly what that floor is, but we do know if rates stay persistently negative, it will endanger the entire financial system as banks and insurance companies have their bus...

Comment: The port is now at an all time (backtest) high. Wow. 8) Oh, that gives me heart burn... Even as I tell myself this cannot be timed, mean reversion is real, and so whenever I hear all time high I think, "Great, now there is some very real high probability of this thing going down in th...