Search found 2180 matches

by Kbg
Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 55
Views: 3894

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

I thought this article very good. A good synopsis of a lot of different takes on BTC. https://dualmomentum.net/2021/06/23/bitcoin-a-sensible-approach/ A couple of interesting excerpts... There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, of which 89% has already been mined. That leaves a circulating ...
by Kbg
Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1317

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

I find this to be a really good site on SWR

https://earlyretirementnow.com/

Great thread...worthy of the old days.
by Kbg
Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 248
Views: 104864

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Just scanned it. It seems to be talking about similar concepts as just a levered PP. The allocations may be different but the assets being suggested are pretty much the same (gold, stocks, LTT). I did notice that they assumed that LTTs were going to be a losing investment in the long run. I persona...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

Anyway, you WANT your PP (or whatever saving asset(s) you are putting $$$ into) to INCREASE in real terms every single year. This is the benefit received from saving. If they decreased or stayed flat, saving anything was counterproductive or pointless. Perhaps a nit, but even if all my savings opti...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

So what exactly is a PP contextual CPI (inflation index)? What are its components, how is it measured, how is it adjusted? Should I even care if I spend 97% of my life living in the US? And indeed, macroeconomics is not microeconomics. Since 99% of what I want to accumulate are a particular set of ...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 248
Views: 104864

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

There are some really good threads on Bogleheads going on with regard to the title of this thread. This one in particular really has me rethinking my approach. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=357281 It get's pretty dense at times and you can blow by most of it, but look for var...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

You're right if we make one key assumption, which is that inflation is defined by the Fed. I think we were just stating that different people can use that word in different contexts to mean different things. Now whether the definition by the Fed is the one that is relevant in the context of how we ...
by Kbg
Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Inflation Spike Probably Won't Last
Replies: 13
Views: 649

Re: The Inflation Spike Probably Won't Last

If Joe Biden had done his job then we wouldn't be seeing this inflation. Actually, I don't believe that for a minute but I remember in one of the debates he said that If Trump had done his job your friends and relatives wouldn't have died of Covid. So it seems fair for people to believe that based ...
by Kbg
Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

People can debate forever on how to measure inflation. Look, I understand what KBG is saying and arguably it is the most practical way to look at it. But the reason inflation is so confusing is because the same word is used to describe so many different things. Sometimes theoretical, sometimes tech...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:52 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Inflation Spike Probably Won't Last
Replies: 13
Views: 649

Re: The Inflation Spike Probably Won't Last

If Joe Biden had done his job then we wouldn't be seeing this inflation. Actually, I don't believe that for a minute but I remember in one of the debates he said that If Trump had done his job your friends and relatives wouldn't have died of Covid. So it seems fair for people to believe that based ...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

Stable no change money guys...make the case why a Snickers bar, a gallon of gas or whatever should perpetually stay the same price? What is wonderful about that? If grandma's bread loaf goes up 10% and if her SS check goes up 10%, in real terms grandma just has to be able to deal with larger numbers...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1479

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

D (and everyone who asked a similar question), Here ya go a month by month blow...https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm#change And "Because I bonds that are less than five years old have values that do not include the latest three months of intere...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: "The Bezzle"
Replies: 9
Views: 442

Re: "The Bezzle"

Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflation...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%

I am absolutely incredulous that banks and T bills are still paying near zero interest. A spread of 7% between inflation and nominal interest rates is absolutely unprecedented. There's no incentive for them to do so and a lot of things are tied to various base rates. On the flip side, one could ask...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%

Much as I like I-bonds, I like the freedom that comes with being debt free even more. I don't think I would be accumulating I-bonds if I had not paid off my mortgage already. I debate myself over this all the time. The purely economic rational thing to do is go with interest rate differentials, but...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: "The Bezzle"
Replies: 9
Views: 442

Re: "The Bezzle"

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm
Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.

Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
Excellent post, thanks! Sounds similar to Soro's theory of reflexivity.
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

Two reasons come to mind why inflation might be bad: 1. If money is being debased, no one saves in the money. It pushes people to, instead of saving in money, to speculate in stocks, real estate, etc. 2. The new (inflated) money needs to appear somewhere , thus you get the Cantillon Effect and all ...
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:51 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Highest I bond rate ever: 7.12%

Ugg, salt in the wound.

We had a slug of these and used them to by down our mortgage and refinance to a 15 year. Given the mortgage is 2.25% and my home has tripled in value, no complaints. However, we humans are never happy are we? :-)
by Kbg
Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1479

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

The rate is set every six months and you get that rate for six months regardless of the announcement date. Quick example. Bond bought in Sept (3.54%) Rate change on 1 Nov to 7.1% Bond bought in Jan September bond stays at 3.54 until March at which point it rolls to 7.1% until Sept next January bond ...
by Kbg
Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:55 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 248
Views: 104864

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

It has been a minute since I posted a performance update…so here its is. UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The Bullet) VGSH/TQQQ/TMF/DGP 44/25/12.5/18.5 (The barbell) VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% (The Newbie) 70% BND/25% TQQQ/5% VIXY (Personal mix) 1/1/21 - 9/30/21; quarterly rebalance Bullet:...
by Kbg
Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: For CPI Haters
Replies: 1
Views: 200

For CPI Haters

by Kbg
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

BTC, If a G20 country starts putting BTC in their official reserves that would be a game changer in terms of my current opinion. If you happen to see that please post. If that happens, Im sure youll hear about it! Curious, but given Bitcoin's trajectory over the last 10 years, doesn’t such an event...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:43 pm
Wasn’t gold ownership banned in the US but kept its value and had a market price in other countries?
Yes
by Kbg
Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions
Replies: 77
Views: 2885

Re: China Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions

BTC,

If a G20 country starts putting BTC in their official reserves that would be a game changer in terms of my current opinion. If you happen to see that please post.
by Kbg
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 22
Views: 850

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

Desert,

Are you a BRK investor? Curious as to your thoughts if you are.