Search found 2652 matches

by Kbg
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 211
Views: 13539

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by Kbg
Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: No surprise!
Replies: 8
Views: 196

Re: No surprise!

I'm an equal opportunity party disliker. I still vote exclusively R, but I'll throw away my vote to a write in candidate in a nano-second if my R choice is someone I consider to be part of the crazy faction. I'd actually consider D candidates now which is a change for me. I'd likely not vote for any...
by Kbg
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:07 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 316

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

I think we've been going through a "Come to Jesus" experience on supply chains which is the largest factor along with coming out of the Covid slump.

Turns out just in time foreign sourcing depends on a lot of assumptions that aren't holding up.
by Kbg
Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:59 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: No surprise!
Replies: 8
Views: 196

Re: No surprise!

I'm not sure comparing either party to their current versions is useful. They essentially began switching political spectrum sides in the 1890s and were fully "switched" by the time WW2 started. Our modern parties were created by and large between Kennedy and Reagan. This stuff isn't static and I wo...
by Kbg
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:00 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

As far as his alleged biases go? He does have a PhD in history and the US Army did have him teaching the book's exact subject matter to cadets at West Point. He also, I believe, served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. I'd say that by an unbiased view that he'd be considered creditable. PhD candidate.....
by Kbg
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 316

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

Follow the commodities themselves...the two will track, not perfectly but certainly. Many commodity funds due to the indexes they follow tend to be heavy on oil...and oil is down almost a third in a very short time period.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:14 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 316

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

The signs are we are headed to recession. It appears the Fed is quite done with easy money. Wall Street was late to believing it. Normally the FFR needs to exceed inflation to tame it. Whether we repeat the 70s or inflation turns down to meet the FFR we shall see.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41032

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The Austrians write some interesting stuff in the international political/security area. Generally always good for an alternative take on things that is also well founded.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:50 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Deleted...over the top, no value added
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Not sure why anyone is quoting this guy as a reference. He’s not even an historian…not that non historians can’t write good history but my take on the guy is he had a very bad experience in the Army and has an axe to grind. And yes there were two batches of states…of course this is the first time I’...
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Completely inaccurate, horribly so for a very dedicated set of abolitionists who were in a minority but a politically powerful one. If you read the war was not primarily over slavery at its core, you are reading widely discredited historical theories generated by southern historians starting in the ...
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: More Money != More Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 784

Re: More Money != More Inflation

Basically the Fed does provide price stability, but it does not control the real economy when it comes to basic supply and demand. Influence yes, control no.
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2821

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising.
by Kbg
Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2821

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality?
by Kbg
Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:33 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

No, Darwinian survival of the fittest was explicitly used as a justification for a lot of awful stuff by many European countries. I assume you are familiar with “Aryans.” Sure it was a Justification…the two were coincidental in time for the colonial heydays of the 1800s. The earlier stuff 1500-1700s...
by Kbg
Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1388

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Are you predicting a 40 year run in gold? At least bonds had/have that going for them. There are extremely good financial and economic reasons not to invest in gold…we here are in a minority and perhaps a delusional one at that. All we got is hope and history, financially and economically we got zero.
by Kbg
Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 14
Views: 426

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Great thread on BH for sure.

Some things are simple (not counting taxation)…a tips with a real rate of return is a always and categorically superior to an ibond.

Throwing in taxes, then it becomes a matter of where to put them.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:00 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.
Replies: 138
Views: 3708

Re: Anybody got Beef with the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg, David French etc.

Shortages of everything...90%+ business caused. They created a highly fragile logistics system. That's the facts...the rest is BS.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:56 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

kbg now do israel/Palestine :) That's a tough one for sure. On colonialism...lots of context behind that stuff that was prevalent at the time...Christianity/white man's burden and Darwinian theories. While Darwin may be pretty good scientifically, it is plausible to say his theories led to a lot of...
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:53 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 41032

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Yeah...a piece of why I went off on Vinny's post. I hate false equivalency and that type of analytical reasoning...because A did something wrong in the past A can't criticize B. Criticizing both is the only moral stand one should take.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:48 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1388

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Energy tends to be a good asset to hold in times like these. I've done some backtesting with TLT and energy related assets. There may be some promise here but I don't have anything solid yet due to lack of time to properly analyze it fully.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:42 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1958

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

An SCV (or SP600) ETF combined with QQQ is a really excellent stock mix I think.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2821

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retur...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 948

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Well Mark said I was the true believer once...so let's go there Russia: Easy to criticize. Humans and international social norms have evolved (for the better). Russia has given rise to Lenin, Stalin and Putin...all dictators, all expansive in seeking territory and two absolutely and directly respons...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1388

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Data wise, and academically there is zero proof gold provides anything more than the equivalent allocation in bonds...sometimes more, most of the time less. The only thing you can say is gold always is more volatile than bonds. Whether one includes or excludes the 1970s for US-based gold returns is...