Search found 2663 matches

by Kbg
Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Question for Xan re Searching
Replies: 8
Views: 247

Re: Question for Xan re Searching

The great thing about bonds is that a pencil and some scratch paper will tell you everything you really know to make an informed decision. If you are thinking of swapping out or adjusting you can precisely figure out the monetary tradeoffs involved. Unfortunately, you will have to make some assumpti...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: #NAFO on Twitter
Replies: 2
Views: 41

Re: #NAFO on Twitter

I always think of Smitty and his dog whenever I see a meme post.
by Kbg
Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: #NAFO on Twitter
Replies: 2
Views: 41

#NAFO on Twitter

If you are a Twitter person from time to time and interested in the UKR-RS war search on NAFO, NAFOmeme or NAFOfellas. There's some funny stuff there and typical with twitter lots of garbage as well. However, the dumpster dive will yield some pretty hilarious posts and may be worth wasting a little ...
by Kbg
Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: House Purchase Successful!
Replies: 5
Views: 140

Re: House Purchase Successful!

+1
by Kbg
Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2167

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

In a tax deferred IRA account, is there any reason I would not buy a 3 month CD vs. a 3 month Treasury? See the clip of rates. The higher rate on the Treasury is because maturity date is closer to end of Jan 2023, so closer to 4 months vs. 3. If I look at Treasury maturity dates in the range of the...
by Kbg
Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:29 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1465
Views: 515719

Re: Stock scream room

It's ugly...first hand experience. :-)
by Kbg
Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Question for Xan re Searching
Replies: 8
Views: 247

Re: Question for Xan re Searching

Sorry to hear that Maddy. Were you going to do the 5 or 10 year hold and roll? If so, stick with your plan. It will work out over time. If that was too much risk you are finding out, then you may want to slide down to ITTs. You get most of the return and less volatility by quite a bit and it's clear...
by Kbg
Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:02 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2167

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

That last comment by Kevin is where I am at too. So I buy, say, 10 year Tips. With a sub 2% base rate. And inflation is non existent. Is that not like having my money in a savings account paying 2% or so interest nowadays? Yes and no. Yes, all things being equal. No because with TIPS you are guaran...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2167

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Why do BHs love them...they eliminate inflation risk which is a HUGE benefit. And yet I see that iShares TIPS Bond ETF is down 17.78% YTD. And yes, I get that the performance of a fund is different than buying a bond and holding it to maturity. Still, that just looks to me like another asset that i...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:48 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2167

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Desert also knows a ton about fixed income as it makes up a large percentage of his portfolio and he's quite sharp on this stuff. I am with you on TIPS in that I don't understand them well enough. There seem to be too many variables which I think is what you are trying to get away from. But, damn, ...
by Kbg
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:02 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Question for Xan re Searching
Replies: 8
Views: 247

Re: Question for Xan re Searching

Maddy, I'd caution against hedging with TBT unless your market timing skills are good. Generally, you will be better off just taking some money off the table. One thing I would definitely look into is how the swaps work for these...if the ETF is paying the swap fees (vs. receiving them), then there'...
by Kbg
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16081

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by Kbg
Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: No surprise!
Replies: 8
Views: 394

Re: No surprise!

I'm an equal opportunity party disliker. I still vote exclusively R, but I'll throw away my vote to a write in candidate in a nano-second if my R choice is someone I consider to be part of the crazy faction. I'd actually consider D candidates now which is a change for me. I'd likely not vote for any...
by Kbg
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:07 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 600

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

I think we've been going through a "Come to Jesus" experience on supply chains which is the largest factor along with coming out of the Covid slump.

Turns out just in time foreign sourcing depends on a lot of assumptions that aren't holding up.
by Kbg
Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:59 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: No surprise!
Replies: 8
Views: 394

Re: No surprise!

I'm not sure comparing either party to their current versions is useful. They essentially began switching political spectrum sides in the 1890s and were fully "switched" by the time WW2 started. Our modern parties were created by and large between Kennedy and Reagan. This stuff isn't static and I wo...
by Kbg
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:00 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 1588

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

As far as his alleged biases go? He does have a PhD in history and the US Army did have him teaching the book's exact subject matter to cadets at West Point. He also, I believe, served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. I'd say that by an unbiased view that he'd be considered creditable. PhD candidate.....
by Kbg
Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 600

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

Follow the commodities themselves...the two will track, not perfectly but certainly. Many commodity funds due to the indexes they follow tend to be heavy on oil...and oil is down almost a third in a very short time period.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:14 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed
Replies: 9
Views: 600

Re: Commodity Stocks Getting Creamed

The signs are we are headed to recession. It appears the Fed is quite done with easy money. Wall Street was late to believing it. Normally the FFR needs to exceed inflation to tame it. Whether we repeat the 70s or inflation turns down to meet the FFR we shall see.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 581
Views: 42384

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The Austrians write some interesting stuff in the international political/security area. Generally always good for an alternative take on things that is also well founded.
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:50 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 1588

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Deleted...over the top, no value added
by Kbg
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 1588

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Not sure why anyone is quoting this guy as a reference. He’s not even an historian…not that non historians can’t write good history but my take on the guy is he had a very bad experience in the Army and has an axe to grind. And yes there were two batches of states…of course this is the first time I’...
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure
Replies: 55
Views: 1588

Re: Vinny’s Mexican Adventure

Completely inaccurate, horribly so for a very dedicated set of abolitionists who were in a minority but a politically powerful one. If you read the war was not primarily over slavery at its core, you are reading widely discredited historical theories generated by southern historians starting in the ...
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: More Money != More Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 1132

Re: More Money != More Inflation

Basically the Fed does provide price stability, but it does not control the real economy when it comes to basic supply and demand. Influence yes, control no.
by Kbg
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3623

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising.
by Kbg
Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3623

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality?