Search found 2304 matches

by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 49
Views: 1530

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Bitcoin is just too young and Harry was wise. Even though he would probably have been fascinated by it, I can’t imagine that he would have recommended crypto to investors depending on his sage advice, let alone telling people to put in in a portfolio of “money you can’t afford to lose.” Bitcoin sup...
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 1:52 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19557

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The FT com one is excellent and is what I based my comment on
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19557

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)? https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-vladimir-putin-ill-with-blood-cancer-secret-recording/ By himself, I don't think it will do much for a co...
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 9:11 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19557

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia. There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of th...
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 8:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 6
Views: 231

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

I prefer and think it more usefully descriptive... Inflation = Increasing money supply + scarcity Demand pull and cost push are more the mechanics than the underlying reasons. The above also cuts through a ton of BS you read. For example, people asserting the Fed's actions in 2008 until just recentl...
by Kbg
Fri May 13, 2022 8:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3496
Views: 1048703

Re: The GOLD scream room

Reminder…per HB, when the dollar does well gold will not. Gold is the risk off asset when the dollar is tanking.

Cash is king right now.
by Kbg
Thu May 12, 2022 11:29 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 12
Views: 635

Re: US / International weight

When I wrote the above I was specifically referring to governments can regulate anything they want when they want (assuming the powers that be want to). Gold has been no exception. And they happen to be, by far, the largest holders of the stuff. I’m not saying it’s being manipulated now…I am saying ...
by Kbg
Thu May 12, 2022 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 49
Views: 1530

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I think HB was deeply mistrusting of the government. Enough so that he would have been an advocate for owning some Bitcoin. Perhaps in the VP, if not the PP. Hey we are all just shooting the breeze on a website, but just for discussion/fun...I'll be a bit provocative on what I'm going to say. Concu...
by Kbg
Thu May 12, 2022 8:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 222
Views: 24687

Re: BTC in the PP

BTC-USD YTD -38.9%

GLDM YTD 2.19%

Not much of a track record...but during the 2020 stock market tank...BTC was off 50% from June 2019 to March 2020

Hmmm...BTC thus far is not digital gold. Gold remains gold.
by Kbg
Thu May 12, 2022 8:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 12
Views: 635

Re: US / International weight

The Simba spreadsheet on Bogleheads is useful for a really long view of the asset histories available...with a HUGE caveat that it is annual data which will definitely smooth out the lumps one would have taken in reality. The point made though is a good one...there is pre 1981 and post 1981 when it ...
by Kbg
Thu May 12, 2022 8:12 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Hey thanks for that link! An interesting read. I think it depends on market size as well as to what happens. The hedge funds are likely involved in mid to larger cityscapes. For small town America the papers have just been closing down. It's a super tough business to be in now and a lot of people wa...
by Kbg
Wed May 11, 2022 6:43 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

dualstow wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:03 pm
The little guy keeps getting absorbed by the bigger one that can survive.
I would quibble with this...local newspapers and radio stations that report on local items (not adverts) are rapidly vanishing. So not absorption but rather extinction.
by Kbg
Wed May 11, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

one more comment...most news that actually impacts our lives is local and there's not much of that around anymore which is unfortunate.
by Kbg
Wed May 11, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Try going without any news for a month...you will come to realize 99% of it has no impact your personal daily life. i’m reminded of that guy, a former Nike executive involved in digital media if I recall, who shut himself off from all news circa 2016. His brother alerts him in case of emergencies. ...
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 5:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 717

Re: BelangP's book out

I think kbg is right. O0 I mean, the futures contracts don’t have a physical token of inherent “real value”, but I doubt it would mean much. I don’t think gold has a significant industrial demand. It just emerged as a fungible, portable, divisible… commodity that people wanted. There’s a video on y...
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Mainstream propaganda organs
Replies: 24
Views: 386

Re: Mainstream propaganda organs

murphy_p_t wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:14 pm
This is getting fun, triple tag team.

Patiently waiting for some corrections...
You will be a long time waiting if you are looking for anything from me.

I guess you assume you’ve sourced something worth rebutting.
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 4:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 717

Re: BelangP's book out

I was thinking about a token with real value and the main thing I could come up with is an actual asset that is represents a share of an asset and is redeemable (wheat, rice, or maybe oil). There is the counter party risk which I’m not sure how you get around. To remove the counter party risk I thi...
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 4:31 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

I don't think I've seen a place like this that gets so unhinged over news. Internet tips: You do not have to click on click bait and you can chose not to consume news of any kind. Try going without any news for a month...you will come to realize 99% of it has no impact your personal daily life. I c...
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 4:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 49
Views: 1530

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Imagine if the Bitcoin price was taking off during all this. Yes imagine…but it’s not. There are beginning to be a few academic studies on bitcoin as an asset class. Most of them start with a qualifier; “well there isn’t much data” bitcoin tends to be highly correlated to technology stocks. I think...
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 3:42 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 29
Views: 2576

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

I don't think I've seen a place like this that gets so unhinged over news.

Internet tips: You do not have to click on click bait and you can chose not to consume news of any kind.

Try going without any news for a month...you will come to realize 99% of it has no impact your personal daily life.
by Kbg
Mon May 09, 2022 2:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 49
Views: 1530

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Completely not surprised about BTC...gold hasn't blown it out of the water but it has held. BTC, not so much. Down worse than the market by a fair amount.
by Kbg
Fri May 06, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 573

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

When thinking about this stuff…measuring can be absolute or relative. In relative terms the changes are huge. Take a mortgage…over doubling in less than a year. Letting bonds expire at 90B a month instead of purchasing more to artificially keep interest rates low. Liquidity is rapidly being drained ...
by Kbg
Tue May 03, 2022 8:40 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: good references for estate planning?
Replies: 9
Views: 202

Re: good references for estate planning?

I bought one of the Nolo books...very good, very dry. :-)
by Kbg
Tue May 03, 2022 8:38 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Mainstream propaganda organs
Replies: 24
Views: 386

Re: Mainstream propaganda organs

Interesting response...a simple yes or no would have done. At least that way the rest of the board would know what it's responding to.
by Kbg
Tue May 03, 2022 8:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 12
Views: 635

Re: US / International weight

> never recommend this portfolio to anyone less than 50 Unless they have enough saved. Esp combined with a house/downsizing and possible SS/pension. Actually, if one has a pension and particularly if one has an inflation adjusted pension there's less reason to have a PP because one has a stable bas...