Search found 2325 matches

by Kbg
Tue May 24, 2022 5:54 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
Replies: 5
Views: 300

Re: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?

whatchamacallit wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:11 pm
Dxy up 12.59% in last year now.

My understanding of what I have heard is all the dollar denominated debt is needing to be paid off.
And/or we have a compelling rate if you want to purchase our debt compared to most other non-junk countries.
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 5:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 227
Views: 25158

Re: BTC in the PP

Completely on board with the tech and what it can be used for...just not as a replacement for good ole fashioned government fiat currency. Just not gonna happen at scale unless governments get more stupid than they've ever been...and thus far I'm not aware of a government who isn't or hasn't been aw...
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 3:06 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 227
Views: 25158

Re: BTC in the PP

LOL!
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 227
Views: 25158

Re: BTC in the PP

A continued...ah, no. https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-when-things-break/ 3) Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins. Here’s an alarming disclosure from CoinBase in which they explain that the Bitcoin they custody could be considered firm assets in case of bankruptcy. In other words, custo...
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 12:30 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21031

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I actually feel sorry for the Russian kid on trial. I get where the Ukrainians are coming from, but I think it was a stupid move at this point in time. There's a good reason why war crimes trials are normally held AFTER the winner is determined...to wit, not setting your own soldiers up for the sam...
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 14
Views: 869

Re: US / International weight

Jack, Read up on people who held gold in the 1930s when the government confiscated it/made it basically useless. There's plenty to be found googleing. You can pick totalitarian Germany or democratic US. Between your theory and historical reality, I know what I'm going with. I have a decent chunk of ...
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 12:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 338

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the g...
by Kbg
Mon May 23, 2022 11:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 24
Views: 763

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Simple summary...the days of everything cheap due to Chinese labor/manufacturing/and just in time supply chains are over The average American consumer would say they are experiencing inflation at the gas pump, food at the grocery store, and rent in their neighborhood. Does all that have much to do ...
by Kbg
Thu May 19, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 24
Views: 763

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Simple summary...the days of everything cheap due to Chinese labor/manufacturing/and just in time supply chains are over
by Kbg
Wed May 18, 2022 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Appetite for Destruction
Replies: 3
Views: 115

Re: Appetite for Destruction

Welcome to the Jungle ;D

A great trac if you have apple music...Hair Metal Essentials
by Kbg
Wed May 18, 2022 2:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 43
Views: 2970

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Good article in the WSJ today on the guy's online journal. (Paywall) https://www.wsj.com/articles/buffalo-shooting-supermarket-673-page-diary-reveals-suspects-descent-into-racist-extremism-11652814938?mod=hp_lead_pos11 Nothing excuses what he did , but I think one can feel pity for him in watching/...
by Kbg
Wed May 18, 2022 9:51 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 43
Views: 2970

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Good article in the WSJ today on the guy's online journal. (Paywall) https://www.wsj.com/articles/buffalo-shooting-supermarket-673-page-diary-reveals-suspects-descent-into-racist-extremism-11652814938?mod=hp_lead_pos11 Nothing excuses what he did , but I think one can feel pity for him in watching/r...
by Kbg
Wed May 18, 2022 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 11
Views: 422

Re: Random observation

Okay, yes. I’m all for simpler as long as it works as intended. The main thing to be aware of is that TBM pushes you firmly into intermediate bonds vs. long-term bonds. However, as noted in a different thread I don't think that's a bad thing if one ditches cash and goes to just straight intermediat...
by Kbg
Wed May 18, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 24
Views: 763

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Not talked about as much...but scarcity of labor is a significant factor I think as well. It has been a really long time since business has had to "pay up" for workers and the fact that unions are getting any traction at all suggests a tight labor market. P.S. It's good to have PS back and posting a...
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 5:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 16
Views: 1492

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference. Duration (making numbers up) LTTs 20 ITTs 10 Cash 0 25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs Ideal duration for ITT’s is ...
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 16
Views: 1492

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs That's a loaded question and most likely would depend on how and when one sold off assets. But here's an interesting tidbit from PVisualizer using the monthly returns display There is not a single m...
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21031

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol) What is the significance of the steel plant? Physically, it was the last hold out that enabled interdiction of a land bridge to Crimea Metaphorically, it turned into the Ukrainian version of the Alamo or if you're into ancient h...
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 2:52 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 16
Views: 1492

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference.

Duration (making numbers up)

LTTs 20
ITTs 10
Cash 0

25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 2:48 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?
Replies: 2
Views: 113

Re: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?

+1 good article...I came to this same conclusion about a year and a half ago.
by Kbg
Tue May 17, 2022 2:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 11
Views: 422

Re: Random observation

Explained by the fact that the US TBM is 60%+ in USG bonds. I think Hal's observation is basically sound and a good choice if one doesn't have LTTs as an option which was his main point.
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 56
Views: 2178

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Bitcoin is just too young and Harry was wise. Even though he would probably have been fascinated by it, I can’t imagine that he would have recommended crypto to investors depending on his sage advice, let alone telling people to put in in a portfolio of “money you can’t afford to lose.” Bitcoin sup...
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 1:52 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21031

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The FT com one is excellent and is what I based my comment on
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21031

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)? https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-vladimir-putin-ill-with-blood-cancer-secret-recording/ By himself, I don't think it will do much for a co...
by Kbg
Mon May 16, 2022 9:11 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21031

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia. There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of th...