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by Kbg
Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?
Replies: 71
Views: 1307

Re: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?

https://710wor.iheart.com/featured/mark-simone/content/2020-08-27-the-very-long-list-of-the-many-times-joe-bidens-been-caught-in-major-lies/ https://nypost.com/2021/03/25/biden-lies-and-the-media-doesnt-question-it-goodwin/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/biden-is-lying/ https://www.cnn.com/2...
by Kbg
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 157
Views: 92014

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

"Any reason you chose BND? The 7-10 Treasury ETF (IEF) backtests slightly better. Just wondering" BND is pretty safe so far as a bond index fund goes. It's like 60%+ treasuries. For me it's a pure risk/reward call. The corporates in BND bump up that fund's returns over IEF slightly. My backtesting s...
by Kbg
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 157
Views: 92014

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I think when VIXY is down to 2.5% or quarterly whichever you prefer. It's easy to let VIXY shrink to nothing because it does such a good job of burning through a bunch of money. However, that kind of defeats the purpose of having a hedge in the first place. If I can remember I'll make an update to t...
by Kbg
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 566
Views: 244334

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Inflation requires rising wages at some point. If those don't come in to undergird price increases then everything crashes again. As much as I would like to see the pot distributed more fairly, I don't think that's gonna happen. Happening...https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/real-average-hourly-earn...
by Kbg
Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 566
Views: 244334

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Looking at yields around the world I don't see the rate going much higher at all. I actually think 30 year will be at 1.5% in a month. Hard to say...we are now actually experiencing "real" materials shortages and if the infrastructure bill goes through shortages could get worse which is the main pr...
by Kbg
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on my recent rebalancing history
Replies: 19
Views: 1506

Re: Thoughts on my recent rebalancing history

There have been a lot of studies on rebalancing and if one is dishonest, pick a certain date and you can come up with the conclusions you want in advance. If one wants to dive into the topic a good line of study is looking at rebalancing schemes and when they do well and when they don't do well. A d...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 566
Views: 244334

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Even 6.5 years can be to long . I know my other model I swapped for the pp is up this year . The most conservative model is 25% equities with the bond side a total bond fund , a high yield fund and a very short term treasury bond fund ..... There is just no bottom in Tlt ...I stopped even trying to...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 199
Views: 10853

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

CME is starting micro bitcoin futures in May at 1/10th the quoted rate...If these things gain some traction/volume I think I'll be doing a little speculation with them. Cash settled as well, double bonus.
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 566
Views: 244334

Re: The Bond Dream Room

For me I just couldn't do PP orthodoxy anymore when it came to LTTs. My duration is around 6.5 and I debate myself all the time whether or not I'm nuts for going that long at this moment in time. I'm not a gloom and doomer on interest rates but I don't think it is even debatable, at a minimum, that ...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reducing 401k contributions now for tax flexibility later?
Replies: 16
Views: 727

Re: Reducing 401k contributions now for tax flexibility later?

Mathematically, it is almost always the case that you want to defer taxes because you can compound a higher amount longer all things being equal. Roth not Roth always comes down mathematically to projected tax rates. One option that sometimes can yield some really outstanding advice is chuck your si...
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Dave ramsey plan using Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 6037

Re: Dave ramsey plan using Vanguard

On the leveraged threads in the VP section...the intent of most of them was to get the most return using the PP framework. For me running a bunch of numbers caused me to move away from a classic PP leveraged. Most of my posts were really more about leverage and it's characteristics, good and bad vs....
by Kbg
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:57 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 566
Views: 244334

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Not so dreamy these days on the long side. Down over 23%, worst since the 80s.
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Privacy
Replies: 13
Views: 633

Re: Privacy

Two good posts just now.

On #1, yeah way too hard/much work for me. It is an endless cycle I think.

On #2, that would be awesome. Unfortunately, see #1 above. I'm not hopeful.
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:37 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Let's just say your view of the First Amendment is "expansive." Maybe you should read up on what the freedom of assembly protects before you post stuff about it. It's pretty clear you are clueless. Now now, Kbg, there's no need to let your emotions get the better of you and resort to ad hominem att...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Not sure how a vaccine passport violates your ability to freely assemble? Free in this case does not mean conveniently, cheaply or using a conveyance of your choosing. It means you can get together for a political purpose. A passport by definition is a restriction, no doubt. Get a shot, get a passp...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1261
Views: 88756

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant. Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not! Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits... I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good! It's 63 here, I a...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

"But the point is that the government shouldn't have stolen that freedom in the first place." People with a slave mentality won't be able to understand that statement. Furthermore, if you object to being enslaved, they will accuse you of whining. #StockholmSyndrome #SS #NoWhining #ChoicesHaveConseq...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Not sure how a vaccine passport violates your ability to freely assemble? Free in this case does not mean conveniently, cheaply or using a conveyance of your choosing. It means you can get together for a political purpose. A passport by definition is a restriction, no doubt. Get a shot, get a passp...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Why are you guys still droning on about this? Get the jab or don't, take the consequences either way. With the vaccine widely available it's a different situation now. If our mask freedom fighters can't get on an airplane, oh well, drive. Can't travel internationally, oh well, the Grand Canyon is s...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Colorado Grocery Store Mass Shooter
Replies: 69
Views: 2751

Re: Colorado Grocery Store Mass Shooter

I have something to add to the guys with AKs holding off a determined army comments. I actually have a master's degree on this very topic...and your statements are historically inaccurate. First, I mentioned determined. That is a pre-requisite for what I say next. Against a determined Army/Governmen...
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:34 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Privacy
Replies: 13
Views: 633

Re: Privacy

A bit of a side street, I wonder how many apps in the iphone ecosystem will essentially force you to be tracked for the app to work after they implement their new blocking of advertisement tracking feature? I'm going to guess a lot.
by Kbg
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:26 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Why are you guys still droning on about this? Get the jab or don't, take the consequences either way. With the vaccine widely available it's a different situation now. If our mask freedom fighters can't get on an airplane, oh well, drive. Can't travel internationally, oh well, the Grand Canyon is st...
by Kbg
Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:39 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Let's debate: Money
Replies: 37
Views: 1966

Re: Let's debate: Money

v_c, It appears the ball was in my court. :-) Pretty much agree with most of your last longer post...what's to follow aren't counterpoints but simply "more stuff" to think about. One thing were I strongly believe institutional investing principles and personal investing principles diverge, and shoul...
by Kbg
Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Dave ramsey plan using Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 6037

Re: Dave ramsey plan using Vanguard

I realize it is a 100% stocks story but I think it has been 10 years of following PP for me so it does sting a bit. Would anyone be interested in a potential PP variant (that DOESN'T use market timing or vol targeting or anything like that....it's just annually rebalanced once a year every December...
by Kbg
Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 936
Views: 28070

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

I don't really understand why you guys are arguing about this, as it's basically moot at this point. Within 2 weeks or less, literally anyone in the US who wants the vaccine will be able to get it. If the vaccine works as advertised (I believe it does; obviously who knows if there are long term sid...