Search found 2226 matches

by Kbg
Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

v_c,

Agree on all points.

I use the PP as a benchmark for a similar though leveraged portfolio.

I chuckled on your last two sentences...very true. Kinda like using Formula 1 racing speeds to evaluate rally car race speeds. Yes, they both have engines but not really the same thing.
by Kbg
Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 101794

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Going to facts here's the bottom line: Ivermetcin studies range anywhere from it may work to it doesn't work. The jury is still out. COVID specific vaccines work at the reported efficacy with the reported side effects. The most studied vaccine ever (by far). If I'm over 40-50 and make evidence based...
by Kbg
Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Fair value can be modelled (basically an educated guess) and then confirmed in hindsight by evaluating whether there was a mean. Fair value is market value less speculative excess. The PP allows you over time to essentially be holding assets at their fair value and reducing the speculative excess a...
by Kbg
Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 107
Views: 6287

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

start it...if we go by HB rules it's clearly VP stuff.
by Kbg
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Is a speculative premium considered over performance? But if you believe in a long term average growth trend and that there will be reversion to that mean then is it fair to say that anything above that is considered performance or just that if you have exposure above fair value then you're taking ...
by Kbg
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 101794

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

What we refer to as “facts” are actually data+interpretation+persuasion. So more “facts” are not really a solution. Not only that, but there's a lot more to covering the news than just fact vs opinion. For example, which stories get coverage and which are buried? Even if you're presenting everythin...
by Kbg
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

Good points made, thanks for the excellent responses.
by Kbg
Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:47 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

jhogue wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:14 am
Is the PP under-performing, or is the stock market over-performing?
It's all relative, right? :-)
by Kbg
Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 101794

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

If such an organization appeared, and just reported the facts, I wonder how many people would even believe them? It seems not many...every where I look on the internet critical thinking skills seems to be a dying art. I know very few people these days that don't lead with their opinions and then wo...
by Kbg
Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:27 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

D1984/Pug, I'm not sure geography rules will really do anything. I sat through a lecture by Charlie Cook (of The Cook Report fame) about 15 years ago and he mentioned that with the advent of highly precise geographic systems and data mining the ability to draw a congressional district the way you wa...
by Kbg
Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Give it time, these numbers will reverse. When the market tanks hard PP will catch up for a short period of time before getting left in the dust again...ain't nuthing surprising about the PP way underperforming in a strong bull market.
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4369
Views: 860233

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Being ever the middleist, I’ve never understood either extreme. If scripture is the final authority then clearly what you do in life matters and you will be judged for your actions. On the other hand, it’s impossible to get through life without sin and thus the need of grace through the atonement of...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

I stand corrected, nut job regardless. Having said the above, if I were the next Republican speaker I’d find a couple of democrats who made some outrageous statements and strip them of their committee assignments. I’d probably keep doing it until several were out. Then I’d ask the dems, when does th...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

Benko wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:20 am
tive.
Bipartisan legislation was one thing in the ERA of JFK live and let live liberals and another today in the era of AOC.
Or the “distinguished” MTG from Florida.

It’s amazing what our two political parties serve up for us.
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Staying the course with LTTs
Replies: 95
Views: 2693

Re: Staying the course with LTTs

Mj is our resident hand wringer…he’ll be fine, we’ll be fine. :-)
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A case for bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 312

Re: A case for bonds?

That’s always the question, but why does it matter in a PP? I know, it’s fun to talk about. :-) I just find myself continuously surprised that folks don’t do due diligence when they adopt whatever portfolio. With the tools available on the internet for free these days no one should ever not know wha...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A case for bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 312

Re: A case for bonds?

Look, bonds are the easiest part of the PP. Straight math. We can try and predict all day long or just split the difference like the PP does. If we have a sustained increase in interest rates the longest bonds will get hammered the worst, shorter bonds do better and they all lose money. The reverse ...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5357
Views: 491931

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Serious questions. No, I don't think I have COVID. If you get it, under what situation should you go to the hospital? What do they do for it in the hospital? All I know about is that the last step, the Hail Mary, is putting you on the ventilator. What comes before that? You want to get your behind ...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3319
Views: 921738

Re: The GOLD scream room

I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything! That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset. Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few month...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Kyle Rittenhouse
Replies: 31
Views: 891

Re: Kyle Rittenhouse

I like juries. They have to sit through a trial and hear the evidence as presented by two adversaries. They have to get to the point where 12 people have to agree on everything and live with their decision the rest of their lives.. If they can't agree, there is no decision. I like juries. Let's leav...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3319
Views: 921738

Re: The GOLD scream room

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US GSGB - US Goldsmith Golden Butterfly
Replies: 11
Views: 343

Re: US GSGB - US Goldsmith Golden Butterfly

If you're a data guy, it is really had to justify gold north of 25% of a portfolio. Pull out the 70s and it's tough to even get to 20%...more like 10-15%. After studying it for while...wind in your sails or boat anchor. Not much in between. Statistically it is trendy so I'm looking at how one might ...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Howard Marks - Winds of Change

I think this is just excellent...pg 7-12 is what I'm posting here. His letters always tend to be very good reads

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... change.pdf
by Kbg
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 101794

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

It would be really awesome if some organization could just report the facts, without any opinion or bias. Not holding my breath. If I were insanely rich that would be my gift to America...not holding mine either. For the record though, government websites with data I think are excellent sources of ...
by Kbg
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1909
Views: 101794

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

https://thecovidblog.com/2021/11/17/reap-what-you-sow-doctors-dropping-like-flies-died-suddenly-unexpectedly/ Many more reasons I won't be getting the death jab... Too many coincidences. Do these reports give any of the vax enthusiasts pause? Or rather, why don't these widely available reports give...