Search found 1280 matches

by Kbg
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 432

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

LOL, the story of my life. However, with patience I’ve found that a good strategy will work out. I pretty much bank on the fact that as soon as I invest it will have an awful year.
by Kbg
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 432

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

I very humbly with no disrespect don’t get these sentiments being expressed with the PP. At a portfolio level it is all handled very elegantly via your rebalancing strategy. Other strategies I get it, but not the PP. I have a pretty good active strategy that buys/sells Nasdaq 100 stocks and it is qu...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2563
Views: 423811

Re: The GOLD scream room

So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain: The latest move IS simply a random event. The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years. The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something th...
by Kbg
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 102
Views: 81405

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

For me I’ve long thought the actual secret sauce of the PP is the premise that we can not predict...ergo a lot of fancy statistical analysis flies in the face of the premise. We do have history and there we have to make an assumption that future will resemble past. Good moment for full disclosure......
by Kbg
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 102
Views: 81405

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

Thought I would post this. Conceptually one could implement the PP classically or with risk parity weighting. In the latter, cash is more something you dial in later to tame whatever mix you may be doing. (from 1978 using Portfolioviz) CAGR Stdev Best Yr Worst Yr Max. DD SRatio 9.31% 9.36% 47.49% -1...
by Kbg
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 19
Views: 432

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

Look at my avatar, and then say out loud three times: “It’s the portfolio that matters, not the assets. My assets simply provide the expected performance and risk profile OF THE PORTFOLIO.”

Yell the last three loudly as it relieves stress.
by Kbg
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 69
Views: 14830

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

8/8/19

Bullet: 25.09%

Barbell: 29.19%

Personal: 30.55%
by Kbg
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 354

Re: Tactical Bonds

To me a bond index mixed with something else bonds doesn’t make a whole lot of sense if you’re trying to trade bonds. If you are so inclined then roll the bones with the big boys and play yield curve movements...or invest.
by Kbg
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2563
Views: 423811

Re: The GOLD scream room

Poor Budd...
by Kbg
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: TLT vs EDV vs ZROZ

Holding period...are we trading or investing?
by Kbg
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Largest College Admissions Scam Includes Hollywood Actresses and Coaches
Replies: 52
Views: 3202

Re: Largest College Admissions Scam Includes Hollywood Actresses and Coaches

I had a similar experience, though I went to a humble land grant state university. About a decade ago I went to my oldest daughter’s graduation at the same university and my first thought was: “Wow, this place is A LOT nicer than when I was here. Guess I know why tuition is so much more.”
by Kbg
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 354

Re: Tactical Bonds

I’ve been doing bond momentum for I think 4 years now. My approach is a group of bond ETFs that perform uniquely based on what interest rates and the macro economy are doing. It works well and the CAGR is high 6ish.