Search found 1832 matches

by Kbg
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 724
Views: 55925

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Go back to when gold imploded in the early 80s, it's right there. Of course before that gold had gone vertical for a couple of years. Investing/trading tip...when something goes vertical on a chart, it NEVER ends well. Beware annual or monthly smoothing effects. If you don't have daily data you don'...
by Kbg
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 724
Views: 55925

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Everyone knows the PP has had a 29% max drawdown, right?
by Kbg
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires
Replies: 6
Views: 238

Re: Buy and Hold Stock Millionaires

The biggest challenge is knowing in advance which stocks are going to be around for 30 years. I would definitely modify with something that tossed out stocks from time to time and selected new ones. If one didn't want the hassle of self managing a concentrated ETF that focuses on dividends with a go...
by Kbg
Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 14
Views: 528

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

Yeah, my feeling is it's really a personal choice. Whatever works best for the individual so long as they know the +/-s going in and are good with the tradeoffs.
by Kbg
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 724
Views: 55925

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics. 2019 and 2020 were two of the better years ever for the PP. You can almost go to the bank on it not doing al...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I think it’s time to move into crypto
Replies: 49
Views: 743

Re: I think it’s time to move into crypto

No comment on the goodness or badness of the statement, but I did think it interesting Yellen called out bitcoin as specifically being bad for the environment last week/earlier this week. "“I don’t think that bitcoin … is widely used as a transaction mechanism,” she told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin at...
by Kbg
Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 14
Views: 528

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

Very instructive and thanks to all for all the assistance. It seems that if one goes the ETF route, you don't get the duration that a straight up 30yr LTT gives you. You can tell from looking at the yield on these ETFs that they don't have as much duration, but then you don't have as much durationa...
by Kbg
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: TAXES BABY, TAXES!
Replies: 12
Views: 316

Re: TAXES BABY, TAXES!

If gold goes to a billion and you sell a coin for a billion in cash and report a billion in income to the banana republic government.......thats on you. If the government hyperinflates, you shouldn't think they will honor roth ira promises. Gold is best owned in physical form, secure from legal and...
by Kbg
Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
Replies: 11
Views: 381

Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP

It's a fine portfolio. Has the exact same Sharpe Ratio as the PP and gives you about 1.2% CAGR points a year more.

However, an even better portfolio is 50 stock and 25 each to LTTs and gold.
by Kbg
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 14
Views: 528

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

vnatale wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:13 am
Would Vanguard be considered a "good broker"? Fidelity?
IDK. Call them up and ask them if they provide trade execution statistics or reporting in general and on your specific trades/account.
by Kbg
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 14
Views: 528

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

The reason I opted out of TLT was the expense ratio but with a .05 % expense ratios - It's pretty hard to beat SCHQ and VGLT. And it saves the hassle of buying and selling LTT's at auction. But a pro with an actual LTT, is that your only counter party is the US Govt. You will get your money back. T...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 614

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 14
Views: 528

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

The main issues are 1. Can you execute as effectively, efficiently and as cheaply as the ETF ? (no, you can't) 2. Which is the larger cost? The costs of the above or the cost of the ETF management fee? (probably unknown because it is highly unlikely you will do the things you need to do to even know...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Big City to Rural Living: Considerations?
Replies: 33
Views: 834

Re: Big City to Rural Living: Considerations?

We lived in different areas of west Texas for about 4 years and for the towns that aren't clearly dying they can be very cool and eclectic in terms of what they offer. One place we particularly liked was a place that had this old 1940s movie theater that was completely restored to its original art d...
by Kbg
Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 614

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's rid...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
Replies: 20
Views: 466

Re: How does the G-Fund Work?

usermane wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:37 pm
What I'm hoping to be is roughly right rather than precisely wrong.
With any of this stuff, this is the best we can hope for and is a good goal to strive for.
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Political Humor and Satire
Replies: 65
Views: 2914

Re: Political Humor and Satire

I saw a pretty funny meme the other day which instantly reminded me of the board.

If you ever get lost in the wilderness start talking about taxation and a libertarian will seemingly appear out of nowhere to start arguing with you.
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin ETF in Canada
Replies: 12
Views: 289

Re: Bitcoin ETF in Canada

Mark, No idea on the tax implications. If they are considered 1256 contracts then I would think the same 60/40 mark to market rules apply. That may be worth some googling time and/or looking through the CME website for these contracts. I'd be a little surprised if the CME doesn't have some info on t...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
Replies: 20
Views: 466

Re: How does the G-Fund Work?

um, This is just excellent. Very much looking forward to your next iteration. If you don't mind I would suggest trying to factor in some duration analysis. As much as we are comparing the G Fund to ITTs, the fact is they don't behave the same. It would be interesting to bounce your approach against ...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin ETF in Canada
Replies: 12
Views: 289

Re: Bitcoin ETF in Canada

Get a futures account at a brokerage and fund it. As part of the process you will get the standard risk disclosure notices which you will have to read and sign in ink or digitally. If you are conservative you can hold cash for the entire value of the future(s) which means (mostly) you are long or sh...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ammo price increase disparity
Replies: 14
Views: 332

Re: Ammo price increase disparity

On the other hand... I'm glad I didn't buy into 7.62, since my investments had a much higher return than 7.62 did. I'm a magazine half full kind of guy. Kinda like me when I go golfing. I usually shoot around 5 over and I get way more value per stroke than most other golfers. Translated: Lose 5 bal...
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The flooded midwest
Replies: 22
Views: 8213

Re: The flooded midwest

2-3 years out for most ag futures.
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin ETF in Canada
Replies: 12
Views: 289

Re: Bitcoin ETF in Canada

For a bunch of reasons I'd trade futures if you can swing it. Of interest CME now has Ether futures.
by Kbg
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
Replies: 20
Views: 466

Re: How does the G-Fund Work?

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:11 pm
I like the idea of 75% G 25% STRIPS. If there was an N fund I'd throw a bit in there just to make this a GSTRINs allocation.
Interesting idea. More please on the tactical approach for the strip component.
by Kbg
Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
Replies: 20
Views: 466

Re: How does the G-Fund Work?

Ugg, politics sucked me in again. I'm out on that aspect of the thread. If you have access to the G Fund, be happy, you are getting a good deal...cash equivalent with ITT returns as mentioned. However, as of today ibonds are a better deal all things being equal. In reality all things are not equal w...