Search found 1149 matches

by Kbg
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 762

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Buybacks are a form of corporate resource allocation. Companies can do three things with excess cash. 1. Invest 2. Buybacks 3. Dividends Due to the US tax code, only stupid companies pay dividends. So most companies chose #1 or #2. It's also a reason why they finance with debt vs. equity now days. W...
by Kbg
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 51
Views: 4900

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Well they are major bond classes so I monitor them. Generally munis only work well for certain tax situations and I rarely invest in them. I’m a fan of investment grade ST corporates however. I’ve held VCSH for a very long time. A little more risk, yep. A huge risk jump over STTs, nope. Compare the ...
by Kbg
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 4
Views: 103

Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk

Well slight problem. You will not get cheap options on dips. Options on the QQQ are very efficiently priced. That’s not to say you can’t pick up a hedge cheap, as is the case when market volatility is low. However, a safe LT assumption for buying puts is you are going to subtract the cost from whate...
by Kbg
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 762

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Hint #2: Gross vs. net corporate debt. Credit card analogy #2: My credit card debt is up 10 fold again, darn it! Going from $100 to 1000 and I have 100K in STTs. Do I have a debt problem? Have you examined a chart of corporate profits to GDP? Surprise...also at historical highs. Look away folks, no ...
by Kbg
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 762

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Sounds good and really super scary...a perfect news story headline to sell news. Dig a little deeper and you will find corporate debt is a big fat meh right now. Hint: If I make $100K a year and my credit card balance goes up by an astounding factor of 10 do I have a problem? Answer: It depends...wh...
by Kbg
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 762

Re: Permanently low interest rates

I’m going to break ranks with this thread, by the vast majority of objective economic indicators the US is doing extremely well right now. Inflation is low (with NO deflation) wages are up, unemployment is down, corporate profits are doing quite well, tax receipts are up. It’s quite easy to receive ...
by Kbg
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 762

Re: Permanently low interest rates

This stuff can make your head explode. I think one of the best sources for understanding is pragcap.com. Lots of excellent material there. Two articles are very helpful...what is money and where does money come from. The first is the most important...really when you peel the banana money is pure fai...
by Kbg
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 149

Re: BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks

I was an Econ undergrad so I’m no expert but it’s pretty clear standard fiat monetary theory is no longer describing reality. I’m guessing there is a Nobel prize some decades down the road to whomever figures this out. My personal theory is population flattening out or shrinking may be more an eleme...
by Kbg
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 42
Views: 534

Re: The GOLD scream room

Wow, you are gone for a couple of days and Budd is persona non grata. No comment on Budd the person from me, but in my view the person who maintains the board (e.g. does all the work) gets to make the call and I support Xan’s privilege/right to do so.
by Kbg
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 51
Views: 4900

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Of course this is all individual tax rate dependent but for my federal and state tax rates I get the following return order after taxes. I-Bonds ST Investment Grade Corporate ST US Govt ST Munis Assumes 2.83 on I-bonds and tonight's 30 day SEC yields on VCSH, VGSH, VWSTX, as adjusted for various tax...
by Kbg
Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 566
Views: 107268

Re: Stock scream room

Gold is useless for the most part (not counting jewelry) but it’s pretty hard to argue against its usefulness in a diversified portfolio.
by Kbg
Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 566
Views: 107268

Re: Stock scream room

With the exception of truly immediate cash needs (you know actual dollar bills hidden under your mattress for quick access), cash is an evil wasting asset and your goal should be to have none of it or the absolute minimum possible. Note, this is not the same as saying you shouldn't have very safe as...