Search found 23 matches

by Roberto
Sun Jun 22, 2014 10:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Do You Hang Your Diplomas Up On The Wall?
Replies: 11
Views: 7181

Re: Do You Hang Your Diplomas Up On The Wall?

I don't hang my degrees on the wall, but I store my pens and pencils in a coffee mug on my desk which bears the following reminder:  "MBA- When your BS just can't take you any further."  ;D
by Roberto
Sat May 31, 2014 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How 2 assets with negative returns and negative correlations can make money
Replies: 44
Views: 26852

Re: How 2 assets with negative returns and negative correlations can make money

KShartle, if you don't mind my asking, what is your current allocation strategy?
by Roberto
Wed May 21, 2014 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Your Personal Mortality Estimate
Replies: 11
Views: 6714

Your Personal Mortality Estimate

Many of you have probably seen or done something similar to this, but I hadn't, and  found answering these 50 or so questions very useful  in reducing to hard numbers the otherwise vague notion of retirement preparation.  The questions alone are instructive, as they all relate to the longevity facto...
by Roberto
Thu May 08, 2014 8:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

I started into the PP a couple of months ago feeling 100% certain that long bonds would be a complete loser: now my bonds are up almost 7%, while my stocks and gold have gone nowhere.  Who'd a thunk it?  I guess that's why the rest of you are still here.  Of course to be a good newsletter writer, I ...
by Roberto
Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:47 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

Has anyone given thought to or run the numbers on the possibility of a 33x3 omitting bonds instead of cash?
by Roberto
Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Role of Cash in the PP
Replies: 38
Views: 23073

Re: Role of Cash in the PP

Thanks for the great work, Sophie.  It is really helpful to me as a PP newbie to see that folks are checking this out from every angle, and that the generally good results prevail regardless of the time frame. You mentioned the fact that we are in a period of low interest rates, and it appears to me...
by Roberto
Sun Apr 06, 2014 11:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IB removes min 10 USD charge for >100K accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 6677

Re: IB removes min 10 USD charge for >100K accounts

You definitely need to be careful with IB, especially as you are learning to use the trading platform.  "But honest, I didn't mean to do that..."  doesn't get you very far with them.
by Roberto
Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IB removes min 10 USD charge for >100K accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 6677

Re: IB removes min 10 USD charge for >100K accounts

Model JC, clever idea to get quotes elsewhere if you really don't like paying for market data, but for my VP, I love IB's extensive company data service...well worth the $7 monthly charge IMHO.  Heck I used to pay more than that for every single trade with Fidelity! If you happen to have a Fidelity ...
by Roberto
Sat Mar 29, 2014 9:46 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talking Head Predictions
Replies: 14
Views: 9025

Re: Talking Head Predictions

Tex, not to oversimplify, but I think that debt - like any addiction - is a many-headed and very patient monster.  I'm not saying that we couldn't turn things around, get back on the road toward constitutional government, and recover a solid national balance sheet.  I just don't see many signs of it...
by Roberto
Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talking Head Predictions
Replies: 14
Views: 9025

Re: Talking Head Predictions

I agree that  Iraq  was all about preserving the petrodollar system, and have heard that we similarly and suddenly lost patience with Ghaddafi of Libya when he started making noises to the same effect.  However, I don't think that Russia and China, along with the other economic interests would be so...
by Roberto
Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talking Head Predictions
Replies: 14
Views: 9025

Re: Talking Head Predictions

Why should we continue to expect people to turn to gold just because the US dollar is under threat?  No one can predict the future, right? China and Russia are already working out bilateral exchange agreements which circumvent the dollar, and there is no reason such arrangements shouldn't multiply a...
by Roberto
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talking Head Predictions
Replies: 14
Views: 9025

Re: Talking Head Predictions

Porter Stansberry makes public every year-end a report card on every one of his writers' (including his own) predictions.  I haven't seen anyone else willing to do that, until I stumbled across the PP.  Regarding the "gold as hedge only," that simply can't be true in the PP.  Would you ris...
by Roberto
Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Will This Time Be Different
Replies: 26
Views: 15745

Re: Will This Time Be Different

I guess if you feel that the current situation is just "business as usual," and has all been foreseen and managed by the PP strategy, then yes, PS, we shouldn't have to bother with any such safety nets.  My concern is that what may be coming has not occurred in the past (or at least not si...
by Roberto
Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Will This Time Be Different
Replies: 26
Views: 15745

Re: Will This Time Be Different

You don't have to read "doomer porn" every day to realize that something here eventually has to blow, and the possibility of that something being gold, bonds, and stocks (at least for awhile) seems quite real to me.  So...what about trailing stops?  Would I be excommunicated from the PP tr...
by Roberto
Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Reserve Currency
Replies: 4
Views: 2720

Reserve Currency

What might be the likely ramifications for the PP, and particularly for the bonds component, if world markets were to (gradually or not) replace the USD as the reserve currency?
by Roberto
Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

Do we ever see falling prices (other than housing) combined with rising interest rates?  Seems like that would be bad for bonds too.
by Roberto
Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

Yeah, I figured I'd get hammered for mentioning Dent.  I didn't say he was always right, just that his focus on demographic changes leading to deflation seems plausible.  Looks like those with a response to my bonds concerns have done so already.  Thanks for all your input.
by Roberto
Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:54 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying bonds online with IB and Fidelity
Replies: 3
Views: 3409

Re: Buying bonds online with IB and Fidelity

Yes, I have the bond market data on, and I'm not even using limit orders.  I guess that's risky, but I thought a market order should definitely happen fast: nope, it doesn't execute.  I consistently get a brief popup saying that my "order size is small so there may not be a market for it;"...
by Roberto
Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying bonds online with IB and Fidelity
Replies: 3
Views: 3409

Buying bonds online with IB and Fidelity

When I order US Treasuries (5k or 10k) through Interactive Brokers, I get an order confirmation, but then the order just sits there for days and nothing happens;  although one one occasion it went through immediately, so I know I'm following the correct procedure.  Usually I just give up and place t...
by Roberto
Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

Given that there seems to be considerable dispute about its definition... without using the word "deflation," can someone describe the economic conditions in which LTBs (once trusted but now widely held suspect) would be the most  productive component of the PP?  The whole Harry Dent/Demog...
by Roberto
Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

I guess part of what I'm trying to understand is how the market actually places value on bonds.  The bonds I bought last week are already up almost 2.5%.  How does that happen, although there has been no new mention anywhere of pending  Fed interest rate manipulations?  If I sold these bonds a year ...
by Roberto
Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:36 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

I appreciate everyone jumping in on this.  I am no economist, so please correct me.... Either interest rates will go up or stay the same, in which case I'd rather  enjoy the benefits of holding cash.  Yes, they could go down another few points, but is it possible that a drop from about 3.5% to  0 % ...
by Roberto
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why Hold Long Bonds Now
Replies: 95
Views: 42999

Re: Why Hold Long Bonds Now

I have just implemented the PP with about 100k of retirement money, but even after reading HB's shorter version and Craig R.'s longer version of the story, I still find myself unconvinced on the bonds portion.  I keep wondering if HB would be sticking to his guns in the current economy.  Nobody seem...