Search found 5 matches

by gnome
Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 9614

Re: International diversification

Granted, all fiat money is just paper, but not everywhere is Zimbabwe. In 50 years the US dollar has gone from 4.38 swiss francs to parity, and the pound from 8.58 to 1.68 Singapore dollars. That's structural, rather than market fluctuation. My understanding of the PP is that it is a volatility stra...
by gnome
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 9614

International diversification

I'm resident in the (not very) United Kingdom and, having sold a house, I would like to start a PP. But I rebel against the idea of a UK or US version, with 50% in cash/bonds, as both currencies have been grossly debased over the long term when compared with proper hard currencies like the Swiss Fra...
by gnome
Mon Jul 13, 2015 4:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing to capture volatility
Replies: 6
Views: 3145

Rebalancing to capture volatility

With gold (in sterling) at a 5 year low, after spiking in 2011, I got wondering how well the PP captured that kind of volatility. A quick calculation of what would happen in any year where gold went up 35%, and stocks and bonds dropped 20% gives the result (33.75/98.75=34.2%) that no rebalancing wou...
by gnome
Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Heresy - market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 11382

Re: Heresy - market timing

Interesting that permanentpessimist is thinking of diversifying currencies. It does seem to be the weak spot of the PP. Fine if one lives and invests in a huge economy like the US, and markets are functioning as a price discovery mechanism, so that you get normal economic cycles. It does appear, how...
by gnome
Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Heresy - market timing
Replies: 20
Views: 11382

Heresy - market timing

I've read Rowland and Lawson, browsed this excellent forum, am convinced by the principle, and want to get started. But it seems to me that PP theory is incoherent on the subject of entry timing. As I understand it, the PP's essence is to own a selection of assets whose performance is largely uncorr...