Search found 1824 matches

by barrett
Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7663

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s. The site I (and many others) used to use was peaktotrough.com but that stopped updating years ago. ...
by barrett
Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7663

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Up to now down 5% over a year is about the max that was touted . So far it is down more than 2x that half way through a year so I would venture to say many are not happy being down more than 2x that going in to the second half of the year The Permanent Portfolio book (by Craig & MT) from 2012 did s...
by barrett
Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079913

Re: The GOLD scream room

Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-million-tonnes-of-gold-ore/ Story sounds suspicious. Agree with whatchamacallit that the story is probably way off in some way. Ugandan miners having f...
by barrett
Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:56 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank run currently happening in China?
Replies: 12
Views: 326

Re: Bank run currently happening in China?

Another thought I had on this is kind of conspiracy-ish, but here it is. Paying with cash used to be the way most transactions were settled in China but the CCP has been trying to make that more difficult. Not saying they are causing whatever is going on with cash withdrawals… just that they may not...
by barrett
Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:59 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank run currently happening in China?
Replies: 12
Views: 326

Re: Bank run currently happening in China?

By the way, I put the word 'virus" in quotes above because, according to my Chinese friends, what's really going on with the lockdowns is a struggle within the Communist party before they meet later this year to either extend Xi's reign or kick him out. Xi is more or less taking an extreme action a...
by barrett
Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:31 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank run currently happening in China?
Replies: 12
Views: 326

Re: Bank run currently happening in China?

Here in the US a lot of people had their right to work taken away from them for part or most of the pandemic, but there were payments from the government to at least partly cover that disruption. The Chinese government has done nothing similar as far as I know. The "virus" lockdowns have been brutal...
by barrett
Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:10 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 11
Views: 1142

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

I don't convert my paper I-bonds to digital. I keep them in my local bank safe deposit box, along with some gold. A bit of physical diversification is never a bad thing. I do the same as jhogue. Right now, less than 20% of our US Savings Bonds (still redeeming some old EEs) are in electronic form. ...
by barrett
Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:28 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Covered calls and Cash secured puts in TLT, GLD and SLV
Replies: 47
Views: 3510

Re: Covered calls and Cash secured puts in TLT, GLD and SLV

Good to get your update, Cortopassi. It seems this has become less of a PP forum and more of a "this is what I am doing now" place. Which is fine. Good that you have an allocation that allows you to not worry at the moment. Wife and I have been loading up on I-Bonds (we even followed jhogue's I-Bond...
by barrett
Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7663

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

$100+ oil never hurts the oil business. Things are picking up. We expect 2023 to be exceptional for our oil & gas cloud computing and consulting company. Thanks. Can you recommend something to read that explains the pros and cons of the Keystone XL Pipeline? I'm looking for something that doesn't h...
by barrett
Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7663

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I'm dropping in after a long absence. I'm taking note of the pretty severe drawdown in the HBPP, and I must say it's making me more hopeful about the model. Even though HBPP is a collection of four things, not just one thing, mean reversion is a strong force. If the portfolio is down 10% or more th...
by barrett
Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:58 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 52
Views: 2301

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

But it may make sense for my younger wife to buy them for a few more years (just not in a year when she "receives" her gifted bonds). What does your older wife think about not recieving an i-bond gift? :P Let’s just say that having my own polygamist cult has its advantages when it comes to skirting...
by barrett
Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 52
Views: 2301

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

I have embraced the I-bond “gift box” strategy. For 2022, we maxed out I-bonds at a guaranteed annualized rate of 7.12%/9.62%. I then bought $10K each as 2023 gifts for my wife and I in the week before the 1 May 2022 rate re-set, also at 7.12%/9.62%. After the 1 May re-set I bought yet another $10K...
by barrett
Fri May 27, 2022 6:05 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5178

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

On my own premise, we might as well assume that the banning of "assault style" weapons are off the table. There are too many people and politicians who are against this idea. The same with high capacity mags. I don't see that anyone has questioned this "opening statement" by joypog. Is the battle a...
by barrett
Thu May 19, 2022 12:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079913

Re: The GOLD scream room

I concur with Desert. Heck of a job, Dually!
by barrett
Thu May 19, 2022 6:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 7
Views: 833

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

Tlt is a 14 year duration so 5 years to recovery seems way to short I see that it's current duration is 18.08 here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/TLT?cid=ppc:ishares_us:google:fund-names-priorities&gclid=Cj0KCQjw1ZeUBhDyARIsAOzAqQKh8eLrV4bzLAkl9t3F_cGAD0hqACgaeK7n9BCyZq4P7isXMrgS29saAt...
by barrett
Mon May 16, 2022 11:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 27
Views: 3757

Re: Paging Tyler!

I heard last night that Phoenix played the all-time worst game 7 of any sport! I prefer to think of it as Dallas playing the all-time best game 7 of any sport. 8) I was only able to watch a few minutes early in the game but Dallas was making it tough on the Suns to get a decent shot and when they d...
by barrett
Mon May 16, 2022 6:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 333

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there. Are you putting off the house purchase for at least two years? I ask because even 2-year notes (not held to maturity) will go negative if rates c...
by barrett
Sun May 15, 2022 7:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1047

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Are you reinvesting dividends / distributions? If so, as already paying taxes in those, maybe don’t reinvest and put the stock and LTT distributions into cash? I don't see that you have answered Dieter's question, Jason. With everything in a taxable account, "turning off" reinvestment of dividends ...
by barrett
Sun May 15, 2022 6:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1047

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Meanwhile TLT is down 21.28% YTD, cash is losing ~8% to inflation, VTI is down 16.53% and GLD with its negative 1.27% return isn't exactly looking like it's gonna come to the rescue. Can you imagine what'll happen with the PP if Fama's suggestion that 10% short-term Treasury rates might be needed t...
by barrett
Fri May 13, 2022 7:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079913

Re: The GOLD scream room

But in all seriousness, it looks like Gold is mostly tracking inversely to a strong dollar. The "market" has decided that inflation is headed down to ~3%. Not that Gold is strongly correlated with inflation anyway. In my investment view, gold has performed great twice in my lifetime: 1. When gold w...
by barrett
Fri May 13, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 52
Views: 2301

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

@ barrett: I understand your desire to keep things as simple as possible. I won't make a decision on when to deliver 2022 gifted I bonds until after the November 1, 2022 interest rate re-set. The option to choose when to deliver gifted I-bonds is an attractive feature, but sooner is usually better ...
by barrett
Thu May 12, 2022 6:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 52
Views: 2301

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

Gifting I-bonds is a strategy to buy more than the $10K per person limit by buying I-bonds as gifts. Gifting is a two part operation. For instance, you and your wife could each buy your quota of $10K I-bonds in 2022, and then each buy another $10K as gifts for each other. The gifted I-bonds are the...
by barrett
Mon May 09, 2022 10:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 52
Views: 2301

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

Simultaneously, I have embraced the I-bond “gift box” strategy. For 2022, we maxed out I-bonds at a guaranteed annualized rate of 7.12%/9.62%. I then bought $10K each as 2023 gifts for my wife and I in the week before the 1 May 2022 rate re-set, also at 7.12%/9.62%. After the 1 May re-set I bought ...
by barrett
Sat May 07, 2022 6:06 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3478

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Regardless, it is definitely currently broken! I continue to sell calls going down, but doesn't feel very good anyway. May be selling them at $113 next... When the heck are savings banks going to boost their 0-0.5% rates? When they see money leaving those accounts? I guess we'll see if banks start ...
by barrett
Thu May 05, 2022 5:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3478

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Some of us have said for a long time that we yearn for the days when we could get some yield on our cash holdings. The only way to get there is via this pain that rising rates bring. Not really telling anyone anything they don't know. I would add, though, that the Fed is doing pretty much what they ...