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by barrett
Thu Mar 14, 2024 4:08 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What am I missing here?
Replies: 15
Views: 345

Re: What am I missing here?

I agree to a great extent. However, it’s not about just wealth, but value, Barrett. New treatments for ailments, the democratization of the cellphone, etc. Granted there are all kinds of problems — surprise medical costs & out-of-pocket health insurance rates; unaffordable housing, and so forth. Bu...
by barrett
Wed Mar 13, 2024 9:56 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What am I missing here?
Replies: 15
Views: 345

Re: What am I missing here?

• 50K to 350K over 15 years is 13.85% annualized, right? Is that so dramatic? This is why I’ve always been stock heavy. • As we know, the market moves in fits and starts, thus “time in the market, not timing the market.” What was that ten-year period where the S&P returned nothing? Maybe 2000 to 20...
by barrett
Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:32 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What am I missing here?
Replies: 15
Views: 345

Re: What am I missing here?

Could anyone explain to me what caused such a dramatic increase? Has US productivity increased that much? I believe that the Trump tax cuts in late 2017 (TCJA) helped stocks here in the US a lot. This is hardly a thrilling read but might help: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-t...
by barrett
Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:11 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 461

Re: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?

I decided back in about 2017 not to hold long bonds because they tend to do great for a short period of time and then give up their gains quickly. See the data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30 Plug in an earlier start date so that you can see their performance in late 2008 and early 20...
by barrett
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:18 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
Replies: 17
Views: 993

Re: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)

Cash: looks like these high interest rates aren’t going to last anyway. You may be right - but it's so thorny trying to predict the future. Actually you ARE right given a long enough time horizon. How long? Who knows! It's probably a good idea to make sure anything you do is reversible in case we e...
by barrett
Tue Feb 06, 2024 6:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will following the tips of 'longevity gurus' really keep you healthy to 100? From walking barefoot and ice baths to pump
Replies: 2
Views: 662

Re: Will following the tips of 'longevity gurus' really keep you healthy to 100? From walking barefoot and ice baths to

Didn't read the article, but the one thing I would add to boglerdude's list is having favorable genetics. In fact that may outweigh all other factors put together. Of course, one can't change anything about their genetics. Boglerdude's post outlines several changes that one can consciously take.
by barrett
Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Life Insurance in Retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 147

Re: Life Insurance in Retirement

A few random thoughts... There's obviously no one-size-fits-all answer for this but I cancelled my life insurance last year (at age 64) with about seven years left on a 20-year term. My wife is almost 57 and still has hers. My premium was high(ish) at about $115 per month. In our case our house is p...
by barrett
Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
Replies: 15
Views: 70120

Re: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

Can’t wait to hear what Jeremy Grantham has to say. “ This time…” O0 Or that guy who’s been advertising on the finance news channels for 2 years saying something terrible is coming. Man, this got me thinking about Jim Rickards and the first hit I got was a a podcast from 2/2/23 in which he predicte...
by barrett
Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 104736

Re: 2023 Returns

a cnbc article states: The benchmark S&P 500 ended the year with a 24.2% gain, … An investor who had $500,000 in the S&P 500 index around 12 months ago, would have roughly $630,000 now, according to an analysis by Morningstar Direct. Without really doing the calculation, wouldn’t that mean not a 24...
by barrett
Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 104736

Re: 2023 Returns

Don't have an exact number but it looks like our investment accounts are up 14% to 15% this year. Those accounts are roughly 35% stocks, 15% gold and 50% short-term US debt. So we've avoided the negative impact of poor long bond returns but will also lose out should interest rates continue to declin...
by barrett
Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
Replies: 4
Views: 5886

Re: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating

Curious why you posted this article, Vinny, as it seems to be a plug for this particular fund while expounding on its thoroughly average results. For example: << Given its buttoned-up process, the fund’s long-term performance has been near the median of inflation-protected bond peers. Its Admiral sh...
by barrett
Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:03 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
Replies: 24
Views: 31119

Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years

Just wanted to add the obvious.. that if the 5/1/24 reset ends up being just a shade over the current 1.3%, it's perhaps advantageous to buy now (or toward the end of January, 2024 if you have already purchased your $10,000 max for 2023) and get the clock ticking a few months sooner. Much depends on...
by barrett
Thu Nov 16, 2023 2:02 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
Replies: 24
Views: 31119

Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years

What is the earliest date when the fixed rate forecast becomes more or less accurate? Will it be a couple weeks before May 1st? I want to set up a reminder for myself so I don't miss the narrow window to buy at the current rate if the announced May rate will be lower. Alas, the fixed rate is usuall...
by barrett
Mon Nov 06, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
Replies: 6
Views: 15467

Re: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend

Quick question, Vinny... Have you actually bought any TIPS yet or are you still just researching them? Have not yet bought any. But when I do it will be significant mega-amounts. The urgency has somewhat been mitigated by the present levels of yield from the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund. The...
by barrett
Mon Nov 06, 2023 3:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
Replies: 6
Views: 15467

Re: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend

Quick question, Vinny...

Have you actually bought any TIPS yet or are you still just researching them?
by barrett
Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:09 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Selling “cash” SCHO
Replies: 4
Views: 4256

Re: Selling “cash” SCHO

I want sell some of my SCHO etf that has been reinvesting bond yields. Do I sell the purchases that are making money or do I sell the purchases that are down? Or does it make a difference? You didn't specify if this is in a taxable account or not. If not, I don't see why it would make a difference....
by barrett
Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:37 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
Replies: 24
Views: 31119

Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years

Thanks for posting that, ocho. I may get my wife to buy some in January. We both did the gift box for 2023 and I don't want to do that again (just a personal preference). I think David Enna's articles are good but I have an issue with this statement: << In my most recent projection I estimated that ...
by barrett
Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx
Replies: 3
Views: 8970

Re: prpfx

Found this Morningstar link: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prpfx/portfolio If I am reading the numbers correctly, it looks like most of their bonds are short duration corporates with most of those bonds having a BBB rating. If they have been following this strategy of holding lots of lower ...
by barrett
Sat Oct 07, 2023 12:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17577

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Not a bond expert at all, but... The concept of escape velocity is pretty simple, at least as explained in the article Kevin provided in the first post. But the issue I have with the concept as presented is that long duration bonds will always remain unattractive (when just considering escape veloci...
by barrett
Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:36 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 98309

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

https://www.usfunds.com/resource/central-banks-are-buying-gold-at-a-record-pace-so-far-in-2023/ This is after record purchases in 2022. Are there any reasons to explain these purchases besides them knowing something we don’t know? Mostly Russia, China, Turkey, Singapore. Perhaps preferring to buy g...
by barrett
Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
Replies: 9
Views: 37748

Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.

Double posted something. Sorry about that!
by barrett
Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
Replies: 9
Views: 37748

Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.

I was really glad I had long term TBonds in 2008. They saved my portfolio. Now it just seems like they'll never come back and the roof will finally cave in. Do I rebalance and buy some more? Or get the hell out? Long bonds to me have always been sort of an Achilles Heel of the PP just because their...
by barrett
Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:49 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
Replies: 9
Views: 37748

Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.

While I don't follow the US market much, it seems both bonds and shares are rather elevated in price. As I couldn't find the 30y bond price, imagine you have 50% 10 year bonds, 25% each shares & gold. Thoughts? 30-year yields are elevated but not their price... which is probably what you meant to w...
by barrett
Thu Sep 21, 2023 5:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
Replies: 9
Views: 37748

Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.

I was really glad I had long term TBonds in 2008. They saved my portfolio. Now it just seems like they'll never come back and the roof will finally cave in. Do I rebalance and buy some more? Or get the hell out? Long bonds to me have always been sort of an Achilles Heel of the PP just because their...
by barrett
Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 98309

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

Back when kbg was posting on here (I wish he still were), he would often point out that gold was getting weaker or stronger mainly due to which way the US Dollar Index was moving. This data only goes back to 1/1/2000 but is probably worth a look: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/45/mm-gold-price...