Search found 1809 matches

by barrett
Mon May 16, 2022 11:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paging Tyler!
Replies: 23
Views: 3211

Re: Paging Tyler!

I heard last night that Phoenix played the all-time worst game 7 of any sport! I prefer to think of it as Dallas playing the all-time best game 7 of any sport. 8) I was only able to watch a few minutes early in the game but Dallas was making it tough on the Suns to get a decent shot and when they d...
by barrett
Mon May 16, 2022 6:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
Replies: 8
Views: 154

Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)

I like rules of thumb. This makes sense. Maybe I'll split my Tbill ladder to be half 52-week and half 2-year notes and just let them autoroll from there. Are you putting off the house purchase for at least two years? I ask because even 2-year notes (not held to maturity) will go negative if rates c...
by barrett
Sun May 15, 2022 7:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 519

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Are you reinvesting dividends / distributions? If so, as already paying taxes in those, maybe don’t reinvest and put the stock and LTT distributions into cash? I don't see that you have answered Dieter's question, Jason. With everything in a taxable account, "turning off" reinvestment of dividends ...
by barrett
Sun May 15, 2022 6:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 519

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Meanwhile TLT is down 21.28% YTD, cash is losing ~8% to inflation, VTI is down 16.53% and GLD with its negative 1.27% return isn't exactly looking like it's gonna come to the rescue. Can you imagine what'll happen with the PP if Fama's suggestion that 10% short-term Treasury rates might be needed t...
by barrett
Fri May 13, 2022 7:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3494
Views: 1048661

Re: The GOLD scream room

But in all seriousness, it looks like Gold is mostly tracking inversely to a strong dollar. The "market" has decided that inflation is headed down to ~3%. Not that Gold is strongly correlated with inflation anyway. In my investment view, gold has performed great twice in my lifetime: 1. When gold w...
by barrett
Fri May 13, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 36
Views: 1103

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

@ barrett: I understand your desire to keep things as simple as possible. I won't make a decision on when to deliver 2022 gifted I bonds until after the November 1, 2022 interest rate re-set. The option to choose when to deliver gifted I-bonds is an attractive feature, but sooner is usually better ...
by barrett
Thu May 12, 2022 6:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 36
Views: 1103

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

Gifting I-bonds is a strategy to buy more than the $10K per person limit by buying I-bonds as gifts. Gifting is a two part operation. For instance, you and your wife could each buy your quota of $10K I-bonds in 2022, and then each buy another $10K as gifts for each other. The gifted I-bonds are the...
by barrett
Mon May 09, 2022 10:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 36
Views: 1103

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

Simultaneously, I have embraced the I-bond “gift box” strategy. For 2022, we maxed out I-bonds at a guaranteed annualized rate of 7.12%/9.62%. I then bought $10K each as 2023 gifts for my wife and I in the week before the 1 May 2022 rate re-set, also at 7.12%/9.62%. After the 1 May re-set I bought ...
by barrett
Sat May 07, 2022 6:06 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 2706

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Regardless, it is definitely currently broken! I continue to sell calls going down, but doesn't feel very good anyway. May be selling them at $113 next... When the heck are savings banks going to boost their 0-0.5% rates? When they see money leaving those accounts? I guess we'll see if banks start ...
by barrett
Thu May 05, 2022 5:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 2706

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Some of us have said for a long time that we yearn for the days when we could get some yield on our cash holdings. The only way to get there is via this pain that rising rates bring. Not really telling anyone anything they don't know. I would add, though, that the Fed is doing pretty much what they ...
by barrett
Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP
Replies: 6
Views: 337

Re: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP

ps one more question: Do you keep the Gold in the Tax or Tax deferred account? I know that they don't pay interest, but the 28% collectible tax rate is kind of scary.... You're not understanding the way gold is taxed, at least not completely. Check out Tyler's article on Portfolio Charts here: http...
by barrett
Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3473

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We're witnessing what effect the loss of reserve currency status and death of the petrodollar he has on the US treasury bond / PP. This is why we hold gold, right? I'm sticking w/ treasuries, and the PP in general: Stocks: 25% Gold: 20% Bonds: 20% Cash: 20% Those figures only add up to 85%! I am co...
by barrett
Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:23 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 6
Views: 689

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

Just bought my 2022 allotment of I-Bonds today. I wanted to lock in the 7.12% for six months before the annualized rate jumps to 9.62% on 5/1/22. Will let you all know in a few years if that was a good move. O0 Took me maybe five minutes to get this all done on Treasury Direct. I still don't like ha...
by barrett
Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:48 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds Do Nothing for PP?
Replies: 5
Views: 507

Re: Bonds Do Nothing for PP?

Thanks for the replies. I did some back testing and long term treasuries seem to have diminishing returns: cagr 8.02 last 50 years 9.07 last 40 years 6.65 last 30 years 5.89 last 20 years 3.21 last 10 years Curious if these returns are adjusted for inflation or not. Obviously inflation was really h...
by barrett
Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 36
Views: 1103

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

Our driveway needs paving but it can last another couple of years if home repair & construction stay expensive. We had planned on doing it this spring but have decided to hold off. My understanding is that oil prices also affect paving costs quite a bit. We had hoped to put off replacing our busines...
by barrett
Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Inflation!
Replies: 13
Views: 721

Re: Inflation!

Great observation - might turn this into its own thread based on what we have given up due to inflation (demand slow down) Yep...doing without, substitution and making due with things longer are well known/documented consumer behaviors during inflation (and interestingly the reverse...pulling purch...
by barrett
Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:24 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 53
Views: 11028

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either. I don't believe the $840 number is correct though. Did you calculate that or just grab the number from the TipsWatch article at https://tipswatch.com/? Any I-Bonds purchased in April won't actually earn any interest unti...
by barrett
Tue Apr 12, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 53
Views: 11028

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either. I don't believe the $840 number is correct though. Did you calculate that or just grab the number from the TipsWatch article at https://tipswatch.com/? Any I-Bonds purchased in April won't actually earn any interest unti...
by barrett
Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3473

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The remaining 6% of my t bonds are in taxable, thankfully. Currently underwater, not horribly, but still underwater. When t-bonds spiked I think it was January of 2020, I think I sold half of my t-bonds. Have been running them at 15% or so. Maybe 2 months ago, I sold exactly half of what was remain...
by barrett
Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:25 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 6
Views: 689

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

https://tipswatch.com/2022/04/12/i-bondss-new-variable-rate-will-rise-to-9-62-with-the-may-reset/ I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset Thanks Vnatale!! Yes, thanks for posting that, Vincent! And I agree with what kbg wrote in the other thread that this is not good at a ...
by barrett
Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3473

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Ps. I hope somebody is very successful with their bonds... So that I can unload the remainder of my (6%) allocation. I'm curious why you have held onto the 6% position. Any chance of tax-loss harvesting on those? I mean, obviously they would have to be in a taxable account. Also, are you going with...
by barrett
Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3473

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Maybe a good thought experiment to to think what would happen if 30 year bonds go to 5 percent. Can the government afford to pay that interest rate? They might have to go back to QE which will bring the yields back down. I wish part of the portfolio would jump up to offset the falling bonds. In ord...
by barrett
Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 3707

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

I thought you get paid the interest for the month on the first day of the next month. So the interest you accumulated in August was paid on 1 September. Well, that would certainly explain it! So, in that case, I-Bonds pay no interest for the first three months PLUS however many days prior to the en...
by barrett
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 3707

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

Prior to May of 2021 I had only ever purchased paper I-Bonds and the last of those I got in 2011 when one could still do so. My first electronic I-Bonds were purchased from Treasury Direct on 5/3/21. I am puzzled that I did not see an interest payment on 8/1/21, figuring that May - July was the thre...
by barrett
Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:06 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 3707

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

I was thinking of making a purchase every 6 months at the rate change. This would be deep cash, but I like the thought of being able to sell every six months after the first year. You can still sell every six months after the first year even if you buy all 10K at the same time. For example, if you ...