Search found 1680 matches

by barrett
Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75179

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

https://overcast.fm/+F1mWd2F8 This is the best discussion about Covid19 and vaccines that I’ve heard yet. Thanks for posting. That is an excellent source of information from a virologist and, I have to say, one of the more optimistic pieces I have heard. I would recommend skipping the first 16 minu...
by barrett
Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

Never mind my last post. Just realized that if I redeemed the May of 2021 bonds in May of 2022, that I actually would get nine months of interest payments (September to May inclusive). Carry on!
by barrett
Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:42 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

The rate is set every six months and you get that rate for six months regardless of the announcement date. Quick example. Bond bought in Sept (3.54%) Rate change on 1 Nov to 7.1% Bond bought in Jan September bond stays at 3.54 until March at which point it rolls to 7.1% until Sept next January bond...
by barrett
Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: "The Bezzle"
Replies: 9
Views: 442

Re: "The Bezzle"

Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationa...
by barrett
Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:47 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

This just posted at Tips Watch: https://tipswatch.com/2021/10/13/inflation-report-sets-i-bonds-inflation-adjusted-rate-at-7-12-and-social-security-cola-at-5-9/ So the new inflation rate for I-Bonds starting on 11/1 will be 7.12%. Also of note on that page is that the SS COLA is 5.9%. I'm guessing th...
by barrett
Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446493

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The pattern is that COVID hits a new area, mows through it like wildfire for about 6-8 weeks, and then settles in as yet another endemic seasonal illness. NYC was one of the first places in the US to get hit, so our pandemic period finished up in May of 2020. Healthwise, nothing of note has happene...
by barrett
Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:52 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446493

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I guess Scott Adams has basically the same opinion as I do: I think I am supposed to be one of the Lefties on here but I agree. Here in CT, Governor Lamont had his executive powers extended another four plus months. This in spite of the fact that statewide more than 77% of all CT residents have had...
by barrett
Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75179

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Vinay Prasad MD MPH is a pretty reasonable dude. He’s pro-vax, but not at the complete expense of critical thinking. He seems to be more and more understanding of vaccine hesitancy given the attempted shutdown of scientific debate. Here’s a new video discussing the latest concerns about myocarditis...
by barrett
Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP musings
Replies: 10
Views: 770

Re: PP musings

What happened to the "fine art" that Rickards used to recommend as part of a balanced doomer portfolio? Has he sold it all off? It seems like he changes his mind just often enough to be perceived as relevant.
by barrett
Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:00 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Calling ALL IBond aficionado's!!!!
Replies: 16
Views: 2516

Re: Calling ALL IBond aficionado's!!!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-simple-investment-can-earn-you-more-than-6-with-no-risk-11633443665?siteid=yhoof2 Another prediction of over 6% coming to I bonds Nov 1st. Seems like a no-brainer if you can scrape up cash. Just dreaming, if I could go all in at 6% for next 30 years I think I ...
by barrett
Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:18 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The end of the Roth conversions?
Replies: 34
Views: 834

Re: The end of the Roth conversions?

I don't think people are mad about Roth conversions, they're mad that Peter Thiel made a lot of money in a way that they wouldn't have done even if they'd known about it. And he won't have to pay taxes on it. I don't even think many people were mad about that. It's just Dem politicians doing what t...
by barrett
Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

What are you getting? Was this in reply to my question about real interest rates? If so, I am not sure what you are asking. Yeah, you asked me to clarify how I am calculating real yields. I am just looking it up from that link in my post so there's nothing really to calculate. You simply need to lo...
by barrett
Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:54 pm
Wait -- gold up, everything else down? Are we in the mirror universe?
Silver was up as well, right? I was wondering about your silver allocation and how you see it fitting into your asset allocation. Precious metals diversification? Industrial metal speculation? Fun to look at?
by barrett
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:40 am
What are you getting?
Was this in reply to my question about real interest rates? If so, I am not sure what you are asking.
by barrett
Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:50 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Calling ALL IBond aficionado's!!!!
Replies: 16
Views: 2516

Re: Calling ALL IBond aficionado's!!!!

Don't know if it's been posted here before but this site is courtesy of Bogleheads member Numbers Cruncher:

http://eyebonds.info/ibonds/home1000.html

That's 23 years and counting of I-Bond data.
by barrett
Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

vincent, where/how do you see real yields rising? Here is a chart of real interest rates on the 1-year treasury over time: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2021 Depending on which part of the curve you're using, re...
by barrett
Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

This raises a sidecar question. Why is gold down over a 12 month period of inflationary and other worries? Real yields have been rising during that 12 month period. The problem people have is they think there is inflation when what they feel is CPI inflation. Good question, glennds! I have been won...
by barrett
Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:15 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

With gold down about 6% over the last 12 months and stocks up 31%, I am curious if anyone is re-balancing into gold recently.
by barrett
Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75179

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Now that we're getting into the area of recommendations/endorsements, about 15-20 years ago I was at a Denny's and for my toast selection I chose rye toast. My waiter was an older gentleman who got all excited and exclaimed, " Excellent choice sir!!! Excellent Choice! I've often had the rye toast my...
by barrett
Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do you think we are due for a drop in the market?
Replies: 15
Views: 1016

Re: Do you think we are due for a drop in the market?

StrategyDriven wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:00 pm
BOOM, down 5% just like that, curious to see where this goes, my models are all close to going out of equities.
Out of equities completely? What would your portfolio then look like? Just curious.
by barrett
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

It’s been said many times before, by craigr for example: I don’t necessarily want to be in an environment where gold is doing well. I hold some, but I want prosperity, in which stocks are doing well. Yeah, good point, and one that I frequently forget as I also have a tendency to think only in total...
by barrett
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

For the record, I haven’t had any issues buying, nor checking the status of the bonds. Thanks for clarifying, dualstow. I had to get over my strong preference for paper I-Bonds before I was able to buy the digital kind. I guess jhogue gradually brought me to drink at the cool mountain stream. I was...
by barrett
Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

Clunkiest website ever. I was locked out for years. I would surely have bought more i-bonds in the past several years, but I just hate the website. dualstow, Were you trying to redeem bonds via Treasury Direct or just check on their value? This is our first year using the site and no problems so fa...
by barrett
Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890517

Re: The GOLD scream room

My personal allocation is 45/15/20/20 s/g/b/c which seems more appropriate for me. I’d love to divest out of gold even further but the taxes are quite ridiculous. I kind of like that mix, actually. The Budd Gold Light Portfolio. Seriously, you get still have enough of the defensive assets to cushio...
by barrett
Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:33 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446493

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Well the slope of the Florida 7 day average deaths curve (I looked at a few sites) is heading downward at about a 60 degree angle. We just don't know where it will bottom, but a normal chart interpretation would suggest it is indeed crashing. I still say (hope) that this time will be the charm, so ...