Search found 325 matches

by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I don’t think the PP appeals to the OCD as much as does the slicing and dicing approach. You know, is a bond barbell 0.1% better than just intermediate bonds, should I add 5% SCV, etc etc. I was (am) a control freak and I find the PP refreshingly does not feed that impulse. I think I probably did a...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Not an attack or defending anyone here. In fact, let's face it, watching people argue on the internet is kinda fun. But I am serious as a heart-attack when it comes to money. I have said this before, but please keep in mind there are 2 demographics posting on this forum. One demographic (the vast ma...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Maybe. I always thought it was interesting that since a lot of crypto is involved in illegal transactions, the government seizes billions and billions worth of it. More levers at their disposal. One benefit of watching foreign films as a teenager was realizing that power usually wins out. Americans...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikil...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Bitcoin is just too young and Harry was wise. Even though he would probably have been fascinated by it, I can’t imagine that he would have recommended crypto to investors depending on his sage advice, let alone telling people to put in in a portfolio of “money you can’t afford to lose.” Bitcoin sup...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

I used to live in the ghetto and had a similar experience. I represented myself (no prior legal training). The system said pay a little money and basically get a slap on the wrist. I said “What if I don’t pay?”. They said “we’ll toss you in jail”. I said “what kind of food do you serve and can I bri...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Money may not buy happiness but it certainly can buy choices in life But in what way? IMHO one of the largest benefits of THE PERCEPTION of having excess money is it lowers fear of uncertainty. Uncertainty causes fear. Fear triggers varying levels of fight or flight in the amygdala based on the per...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

I don't think a bird is necessarily going to change its feathers just because it hit some milestone. Savers will always save. Spenders will always spend. Gamblers will always gamble. There's a lot of wisdom here. Definitely don't expect that after you hit that number, you'll act differently. You'll...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

The definition of "financially independent" is what is setting your goal post. This definition is different for everyone. Do you have a formula in mind? Personally, I calculate it as follows: (Annual Spending x Cape) x 1.2 = Entry-Level Financially Independent Your calculation makes sense to me, bu...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

ahrunforthehills, you don’t post often, but for me your posts are gold. I haven’t taken a lot of action during this stock downturn. Just watching the market reduce my stock allocation for me since I apparently didn’t take enough profits in December-January. Thanks dualstow, I really appreciate the ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

And yes, while bond prices do decline at times, they're still less risky than stocks, especially if the average duration is not too long. Thanks, that's clear. What seems I cannot really accept and digest is that at the moment who's losing less is actually the winner. Still have the childish belief...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1008

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

I needed to stash away money into the PP until I was financially independent, then I could consider VP investments. I'm gonna break this down into 2 different sections: VP Why are you in the PP? Are you a danger to yourself gambling-wise? If so, just stay in the PP. Are you afraid of losing money? ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue May 31, 2022 2:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures. I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue May 31, 2022 1:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7415

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Although I generally agree with this… not so much for the PP. People expect the PP to be a fast-turning ship because that is insurance they thought they were paying for by giving up their higher expected returns. I think the real problem is that the PP is not geared towards rising rates and relies o...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun May 15, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I agree it's never going to be the worst option but I think it's wise to look at how to build a better bunker. Lots of great input Kevin. I appreciate seeing your well thought-out posts. We consider it a decent investment philosophy/allocation that will never be the best performing, or the worst pe...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sat May 14, 2022 4:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

The scenario playing out now is one that I envisioned and was one of the reasons why I chose the PP in the first place. What is playing out now is high inflation, rising interest rates, with a potentially weakening economy. This was the exact scenario that I thought gold was supposed to bail us out...
by ahhrunforthehills
Fri May 13, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Dump the PP allocation. DISCLAIMER: I already know this is going to be heresy and I am not really looking to get into the weeds again. This has been discussed previously ad nauseam. IMHO, the risk-reward profile of the PP is much more complicated then people here want to believe. I also believe this...
by ahhrunforthehills
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.
Replies: 73
Views: 7681

Re: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.

Mark, Since it appears that you like to travel, have you considered puerto rico's Act 60? Just put in your 183 days each year and spend the rest of your time travelling somewhere else. They even lower the number of days if there is a disaster that strikes. Assuming the PR government doesn't screw yo...
by ahhrunforthehills
Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.
Replies: 73
Views: 7681

Re: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.

Speaking of praise be...a thread worthy of participating in. +1 I often find Mark's posts to be a breath of fresh air. A couple of questions though. First, what do you do when interest rates go up? Over a long enough time horizon that's something you have to consider. Second, what happens when you ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.
Replies: 73
Views: 7681

Re: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.

Given that it could be feasible under the right conditions (thanks! ahhrunforthehills ), the last piece of the puzzle seems to be how to handle re-balancing. My first blush at that would be to just buy a single ETF that is a bond/equity mix . And then also hold some physical gold outside the system...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.
Replies: 73
Views: 7681

Re: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.

I just ran a comparison between living off of margin vs paying annual capital gains taxes. It seems to really boil down to portfolio performance and how many years you will still be in the market. A high annual return combined with a low withdrawal rate makes living off a margin loan a winner after ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.
Replies: 73
Views: 7681

Re: Buy, Borrow, Die. Legally Never pay Taxes.

Hi Mark, Great topic. I too have been curious about this. I just ran a spreadsheet that would account for the margin, LTV, etc. over a 50 year period. It appears based on my data (which might be riddled with errors) that in order to do this somewhat safely you would need to keep your Withdrawal Rate...
by ahhrunforthehills
Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 6755

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

It's great to see your name reappear on the forum ahrunforthehills! Your posts have been some of the best I've ever read here. Obviously it's not just the PP but the whole universe of low or reduced "fat tails" portfolios intended for retirees and others who can't handle deep or protracted drawdown...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 37
Views: 6755

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Thanks for a thoughtful and well reasoned post Kevin, Years back I was discussing the PP concept with a retired Japanese stockbroker and she stated exactly those concerns relating to living in Japan (very low return on 3/4 of the portfolio). Now here we are with the same issue. I had been very seri...
by ahhrunforthehills
Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?
Replies: 72
Views: 8126

Re: What is your prediction for the future of the forum?

What you say doesn't make sense at all. If you want to be actively involved in your portfolio and you believe that is the way to maximize your risk/reward ratio. That statement in itself is very revealing. The PP has outperformed its expectations in recent years so I can understand how it has attra...