Search found 151 matches

by EdwardjK
Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 141050

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

As much as I admire the HBPP, I sold out of Treasuries back in 2017. Yes, I did miss a big increase in Treasury value, but I also avoided the dramatic decline due to the Fed raising interest rates. I have made several posts herein about a modified HBPP where I make quarterly adjustments based upon t...
by EdwardjK
Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 34
Views: 7181

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

"The ability to generate after-tax inflation adjusted cash flows is what matters for retirees. THAT is the key." ochotona, I disagree. I entered retirement with net worth that I am fully prepared to use to live and enjoy life. Although I have assets that generate healthy dividends, I use those divi...
by EdwardjK
Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 out of 4 assets failing
Replies: 4
Views: 1269

3 out of 4 assets failing

We are most certainly living in interesting times. Holding cash returns a loss driven by inflation, currently at 8.6%. Long-term Treasuries are down 22% due to higher interest rates and more to come. Equities, as measured by "VTI", are down 16%, with further decreases likely as the economy continues...
by EdwardjK
Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 7238

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

Congratulations on such an early retirement. Before I comment on the Permanent Portfolio, I have a few questions for you to consider: 1. Have you factored inflation into your financial projections? Inflation will erode the value of your investment portfolio very quickly. I hope you have modeled a 50...
by EdwardjK
Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Failure?
Replies: 34
Views: 6626

Permanent Portfolio Failure?

Did the Permanent Portfolio fail in 2021? I ask this provocative question in order to generate some discussion. According to ETF Replay, the Permanent Portfolio generated a total return of 4.1% in 2021. That falls dramatically short of the S&P 500, which generated a total return of 28.7%; and falls ...
by EdwardjK
Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers
Replies: 88
Views: 30870

Re: A worthwhile read for all PP'ers

I do not believe that any crypto-currency will replace gold as a store of value. I say that because I believe that most countries, including the US, will digitize their currencies and effectively negate the need for Bitcoin, et al. This will fulfill the Progressive mandate that the Federal governmen...
by EdwardjK
Mon May 03, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why not use QQQ instead of VTI?
Replies: 5
Views: 1836

Re: Why not use QQQ instead of VTI?

zeke2020,

Read my post here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12069
by EdwardjK
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 22
Views: 6346

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

Matthew19, If you think Fidelity has poor service, try Vanguard. Late last year I too inherited an IRA. I called Vanguard several times to make what I thought were simple inquiries about their transfer process, and each inquiry lasted at least one hour. Others in my family had the same experience. I...
by EdwardjK
Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?
Replies: 31
Views: 6923

Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

"The insight model actually has surpassed the returns of vtinx the last ten years with less equities"

Mathjak, et al, kindly point me to the "insight" model to which you refer.

Thanks,

Ed
by EdwardjK
Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?
Replies: 31
Views: 6923

Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Mathjak stated, "I no longer view the pp as a safe haven but as a portfolio making a big bet on rates". As we have not seen an increasing interest rate environment in the last 40 years, Mathjak is correct with this statement. I purchased my first home in early 1981. When I applied for a mortgage, th...
by EdwardjK
Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?
Replies: 31
Views: 6923

Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Whether you are satisfied or not with the Permanent Portfolio depends in large part on your needs and objectives. Speaking for myself, I am retired and need an average 5% annual return (after assuming 3% annual inflation) to spend my last dollar at 99 years of age. Of course there is risk if inflati...
by EdwardjK
Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative Permanent Portfolio Update
Replies: 2
Views: 1658

Re: Alternative Permanent Portfolio Update

D1984, Thank you for your comments and questions. Here are my replies: 1. Yes, my model starts in 2006 because GLD data is not available prior to Nov. 2004. I wanted to calculate full year returns and the model looks back 63-days. So calculating the 2005 annual return is not possible. I am not a fan...
by EdwardjK
Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative Permanent Portfolio Update
Replies: 2
Views: 1658

Alternative Permanent Portfolio Update

Greetings all. A while back I shared a modified version of the Permanent Portfolio using three (3) ETFs - VTI, TLT & GLD. I recently updated the results and want to share them. For background, here are the rules I use: The current closing price (CCP) of each ETF is divided by the closing price at th...
by EdwardjK
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?
Replies: 13
Views: 3170

Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

I'd take 8% and buy new cars and new women every year.
by EdwardjK
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
Replies: 35
Views: 11403

Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP

frugal, I think it is a good idea. With interest rates near zero, having 25% of your portfolio earning nothing is foolish. But I would not allocate evenly across the three remaining assets. A while back I posted the results of a backtest using VTI, TLT, and GLD only, using an allocation methodology ...
by EdwardjK
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Finally some good news
Replies: 5
Views: 2249

Re: Finally some good news

Well, I just learned a new word .... Caucacity is the audacity of white people. Meaning, the willingness to take bold risks only white people feel safe doing. Unfortunately I still have no idea what in the hell it means. Maybe that means I'm suffering from it. I live near Asheville, NC where some p...
by EdwardjK
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Morningstar LTT & Gold analysis
Replies: 10
Views: 4197

Re: Morningstar LTT & Gold analysis

The Morningstar article confirms my comments posted on July 6, 2020, labeled “Alternative HBPP Strategy”.
by EdwardjK
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative HBPP Strategy
Replies: 0
Views: 1502

Alternative HBPP Strategy

Back in 2017, I posted the results of a couple alternative strategies using the ETF components of the HBPP. A lively discussion ensued with a variety of supportive and otherwise comments. Today I am sharing the results of another alternative strategy. Using VTI, TLT and GLD ETFs, this strategy weigh...
by EdwardjK
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yahoo Data Accuracy
Replies: 5
Views: 4022

Yahoo Data Accuracy

Back in early 2017, I download historical "adjusted closing price" data from Yahoo Finance to model an alternative version of the PP strategy. The date range was from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016. Yesterday, I updated my model and downloaded data from January, 2006 to December 31, 2018. Inte...
by EdwardjK
Thu May 31, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: UPDATE - Assumed Portfolio Return in Retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 22621

Re: UPDATE - Assumed Portfolio Return in Retirement

mathjack107, I adjusted my "Monte Carlo" model (see updated initial post) to reflect the Clyatt 95-4% withdrawal strategy. Doing so raises the failure rate from 5.5% to almost 49%. I adjusted my annual withdrawals as follows: If the prior year return was negative, then take 95% of the prior year wit...
by EdwardjK
Mon May 28, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: UPDATE - Assumed Portfolio Return in Retirement
Replies: 46
Views: 22621

UPDATE - Assumed Portfolio Return in Retirement

Hi. I've built a spreadsheet that takes into account my starting portfolio value, estimated spending in retirement, inflation, and Social Security income. Using Solver, the spreadsheet calculates the average annual return needed so that I exhaust my portfolio at age 100. Not that my wife and I will ...
by EdwardjK
Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for original forum members
Replies: 42
Views: 30210

Re: Question for original forum members

Regrettably you missed "Clive" and all his posts. I seem to recall he concluded the PP was not sufficiently diversified and moved on, after requesting all his posts be deleted.
by EdwardjK
Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20302

Re: Alternative PP Models

For those interested, here is the asset selection for the portfolio achieving the 10.29% CAGR. The most interesting observation is that this portfolio is in at least 50% SHY for 26 out of 44 rebalancing points. If you are inclined, please validate the results and report back on any discrepancies. Da...
by EdwardjK
Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20302

Re: Alternative PP Models

Kbg wrote: Highly doubtful that EJKs numbers are accurate.
Kbg,

I'd be happy to share my Excel file with you. Perhaps you can compare the data to your analysis to see where I may gone astray. PM me your e-mail address if interested.

Thanks.
by EdwardjK
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20302

Re: Alternative PP Models

kbg,

Yeah, that works too.