Search found 76 matches
- Thu Oct 03, 2024 7:20 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New Here - What are folks investing in
- Replies: 18
- Views: 8723
Re: New Here - What are folks investing in
I follow the standard 4x25 PP with a 20/30 (not 15/35) rebalancing band. Keeping things simple enables me to sleep well at night, and makes rebalancing easier. But if I had to do it over I might have done the Golden Butterfly from the start, and I'm still considering a switch to GB.
- Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2667
Re: Rebalancing and Timing
To avoid this dilemma, I set a fixed day in the year in which I check the bands (20/30 in my case). If the portfolio has hit the bands at this specific date, I rebalance. The rest of the days I do nothing with it. As you will only check (and maybe rebalance) once a year, you can use narrower rebala...
- Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2667
Re: Rebalancing and Timing
Thanks to you both for sharing your perspective. It's good to know I'm not the only one. :-)
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2667
Rebalancing and Timing
No matter what bands you use, when you get close to a rebalancing point you need to decide when exactly to pull the trigger. Yet from one perspective this goes against the PP policy of not checking your portfolio all the time and not trying to time the markets. As an example, back in October I think...
- Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:21 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates
- Replies: 1
- Views: 3401
Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates
Here's another way to look at the challenging market for long-term bonds...
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds ... irees-gain
I suppose every cloud has a silver lining!
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds ... irees-gain
I suppose every cloud has a silver lining!
- Sat Jul 29, 2023 2:35 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4543
Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
IMHO, no sentence should include both "permanent portfolio" and "ideal time to invest". ;-) O0 I have been guilty of that, but mainly of saying it’s an ideal time to invest in the (entire) pp. There's an old proverb: the best time to plant a tree was 80 years ago; the second bes...
- Fri Jul 28, 2023 7:58 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4543
Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
What if you had decided that it was today you were converting you existing portfolio to the Permanent Portfolio. Would you think that it was a good time to be buying the long-term bond portion? It never matters regarding the cash portion. Seems like not that bad a time to be buying the gold portion...
- Fri Jul 28, 2023 5:00 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4543
Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
I'll rephrase to do you think in looking back at it you could have been glad to have made a substantial long-term bond purchase today? No, because that means I would have been timing the market. Every occurrence of happiness over a successful big purchase would be counterbalanced by an occurrence o...
- Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:02 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4543
- Wed Jul 05, 2023 6:27 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold bars on sale at Costco
- Replies: 15
- Views: 34163
Re: Gold bars on sale at Costco
When I search for "Gold Bar" after logging into the Costco website, the only product I see is "Autumn's Gold Granola Bar, Cinnamon Almond, 1.24 oz, 16-count" for $23.99. They look yummy!
- Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:34 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
- Replies: 40
- Views: 51380
Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.
One guys' commentary I do still read is Hussman. The article linked below is the latest. A couple quotes stood out: I feel kind of bad for Hussman. Yes, I used to read him too, but as far as I can see he's never really recovered from the beating he took after the Global Financial Crisis (when he di...
- Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
- Replies: 37
- Views: 78909
Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Our very own Tyler wrote an excellent essay about the importance of cash in your portfolio:
https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/05/12/ ... -investor/
https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/05/12/ ... -investor/
- Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:38 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: SCV in the GB
- Replies: 8
- Views: 7638
Re: SCV in the GB
Thanks to you both, this information is extremely helpful!foglifter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:27 pm+1 on SLYV and IJS. I also use AVUV, which seems to be gaining interest (AUM reached 4.8B) and sports a fairly low ER of 0.25%.flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:08 pm Some additional options are SLYV and IJS. They are both "S&P 600 Small Cap Value" ETFs.
- Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:36 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: SCV in the GB
- Replies: 8
- Views: 7638
SCV in the GB
For those of you following the Golden Butterfly portfolio: what funds or ETFs do you use for the small cap value portion of the equities barbell? I invest with Schwab and their Small-Cap Index Fund (SWSSX) is designed to track the Russell 2000, but as far as I can see its annual returns are not that...
- Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2022 Returns
- Replies: 44
- Views: 35309
2022 Returns
It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
- Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:52 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier
- Replies: 1
- Views: 2553
Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier
"Goldman Sachs expects gold, with its real demand drivers, to outperform the highly volatile bitcoin in the long term"...
https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-12-12/
https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-12-12/
- Sat Dec 10, 2022 7:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
- Replies: 117
- Views: 56574
Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Since 2013 (Yellen), and there's been a return to a semi-pegging, a multi-facet gold/dollar standard and as such gold has been flatish/range-bound. Not doing what otherwise might have been expected. As such the PP would seem to be performing more as-expected in other countries, whilst not so in the...
- Tue May 03, 2022 7:21 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5324
Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
- Tue May 03, 2022 1:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5324
Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
- Tue May 03, 2022 10:42 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5324
Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve ...
- Mon May 02, 2022 8:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 5324
Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
With stocks, long-term bonds, and gold all down (not to mention GDP), I wonder if we're in one of those rare tight-money recessions that Harry Browne talked about...
- Mon May 02, 2022 8:18 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
- Replies: 34
- Views: 14778
Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
If the stock market crashes far enough (and who knows if it will?), you'll hit your rebalance bands and buy low. There's a reason this forum is called Gyroscopic Investing. :-)
- Mon May 02, 2022 6:28 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
- Replies: 18
- Views: 7939
Re: Overseas Gold? 2022
However, being serious now. Watch the Australian Elections this year. If socialist nutcases get into Government, I would re-evaluate storing Gold here. Between the right-wing Russophiles and left-wing wokesters that have taken over both US parties...and apparently everywhere else....where the hell ...
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:26 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
- Replies: 40
- Views: 12749
Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
It's not clear to me how I-bonds are deep cash, given that they mature in 30 years. What am I missing? You mean as opposed to being deep bonds? A bond matures in 30 years and you have no option to cash out early (not including the coupon) other than selling it, and its value can gyrate wildly. The ...
- Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:18 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
- Replies: 40
- Views: 12749
Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
The only thing I would quibble about is that this thread belongs with Cash, rather than Bonds. ;) I struggled over that, JHogue. :-) You’re right. Even though i*Bonds are often used for deep cash and certainly not for what we know as the Bond portion of the pp, I figured “Bond” is right in the name...