Search found 76 matches

by stpeter
Thu Oct 03, 2024 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Here - What are folks investing in
Replies: 18
Views: 8723

Re: New Here - What are folks investing in

I follow the standard 4x25 PP with a 20/30 (not 15/35) rebalancing band. Keeping things simple enables me to sleep well at night, and makes rebalancing easier. But if I had to do it over I might have done the Golden Butterfly from the start, and I'm still considering a switch to GB.
by stpeter
Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
Replies: 7
Views: 2667

Re: Rebalancing and Timing

To avoid this dilemma, I set a fixed day in the year in which I check the bands (20/30 in my case). If the portfolio has hit the bands at this specific date, I rebalance. The rest of the days I do nothing with it. As you will only check (and maybe rebalance) once a year, you can use narrower rebala...
by stpeter
Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
Replies: 7
Views: 2667

Re: Rebalancing and Timing

Thanks to you both for sharing your perspective. It's good to know I'm not the only one. :-)
by stpeter
Tue Feb 06, 2024 4:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
Replies: 7
Views: 2667

Rebalancing and Timing

No matter what bands you use, when you get close to a rebalancing point you need to decide when exactly to pull the trigger. Yet from one perspective this goes against the PP policy of not checking your portfolio all the time and not trying to time the markets. As an example, back in October I think...
by stpeter
Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 1
Views: 3401

Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates

Here's another way to look at the challenging market for long-term bonds...

https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds ... irees-gain

I suppose every cloud has a silver lining!
by stpeter
Sat Jul 29, 2023 2:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 4543

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

IMHO, no sentence should include both "permanent portfolio" and "ideal time to invest". ;-) O0 I have been guilty of that, but mainly of saying it’s an ideal time to invest in the (entire) pp. There's an old proverb: the best time to plant a tree was 80 years ago; the second bes...
by stpeter
Fri Jul 28, 2023 7:58 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 4543

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

What if you had decided that it was today you were converting you existing portfolio to the Permanent Portfolio. Would you think that it was a good time to be buying the long-term bond portion? It never matters regarding the cash portion. Seems like not that bad a time to be buying the gold portion...
by stpeter
Fri Jul 28, 2023 5:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 4543

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

I'll rephrase to do you think in looking back at it you could have been glad to have made a substantial long-term bond purchase today? No, because that means I would have been timing the market. Every occurrence of happiness over a successful big purchase would be counterbalanced by an occurrence o...
by stpeter
Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 4543

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

yankees60 wrote: Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:57 am However, on the basis of the below could now be an ideal time to invest in the long-term bonds as part of the Permanent Portfolio plan?
IMHO, no sentence should include both "permanent portfolio" and "ideal time to invest". ;-)
by stpeter
Wed Jul 05, 2023 6:27 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold bars on sale at Costco
Replies: 15
Views: 34163

Re: Gold bars on sale at Costco

When I search for "Gold Bar" after logging into the Costco website, the only product I see is "Autumn's Gold Granola Bar, Cinnamon Almond, 1.24 oz, 16-count" for $23.99. They look yummy! :D
by stpeter
Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 51380

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

One guys' commentary I do still read is Hussman. The article linked below is the latest. A couple quotes stood out: I feel kind of bad for Hussman. Yes, I used to read him too, but as far as I can see he's never really recovered from the beating he took after the Global Financial Crisis (when he di...
by stpeter
Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 78909

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Our very own Tyler wrote an excellent essay about the importance of cash in your portfolio:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/05/12/ ... -investor/
by stpeter
Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:38 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SCV in the GB
Replies: 8
Views: 7638

Re: SCV in the GB

foglifter wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:27 pm
flyingpylon wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:08 pm Some additional options are SLYV and IJS. They are both "S&P 600 Small Cap Value" ETFs.
+1 on SLYV and IJS. I also use AVUV, which seems to be gaining interest (AUM reached 4.8B) and sports a fairly low ER of 0.25%.
Thanks to you both, this information is extremely helpful!
by stpeter
Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SCV in the GB
Replies: 8
Views: 7638

SCV in the GB

For those of you following the Golden Butterfly portfolio: what funds or ETFs do you use for the small cap value portion of the equities barbell? I invest with Schwab and their Small-Cap Index Fund (SWSSX) is designed to track the Russell 2000, but as far as I can see its annual returns are not that...
by stpeter
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 35309

2022 Returns

It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
by stpeter
Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier
Replies: 1
Views: 2553

Gold vs. Bitcoin as Portfolio Diversifier

"Goldman Sachs expects gold, with its real demand drivers, to outperform the highly volatile bitcoin in the long term"...

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-12-12/
by stpeter
Sat Dec 10, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 56574

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Since 2013 (Yellen), and there's been a return to a semi-pegging, a multi-facet gold/dollar standard and as such gold has been flatish/range-bound. Not doing what otherwise might have been expected. As such the PP would seem to be performing more as-expected in other countries, whilst not so in the...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 5324

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 1:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 5324

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 5324

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve ...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 5324

Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

With stocks, long-term bonds, and gold all down (not to mention GDP), I wonder if we're in one of those rare tight-money recessions that Harry Browne talked about...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 14778

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Don wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:16 am I'm looking at a market crash ahead. Which asset in the PP will save us? Also, any non PP assets, possibly like TBT?
If the stock market crashes far enough (and who knows if it will?), you'll hit your rebalance bands and buy low. There's a reason this forum is called Gyroscopic Investing. :-)
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 6:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 18
Views: 7939

Re: Overseas Gold? 2022

However, being serious now. Watch the Australian Elections this year. If socialist nutcases get into Government, I would re-evaluate storing Gold here. Between the right-wing Russophiles and left-wing wokesters that have taken over both US parties...and apparently everywhere else....where the hell ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 12749

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

It's not clear to me how I-bonds are deep cash, given that they mature in 30 years. What am I missing? You mean as opposed to being deep bonds? A bond matures in 30 years and you have no option to cash out early (not including the coupon) other than selling it, and its value can gyrate wildly. The ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 12749

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

The only thing I would quibble about is that this thread belongs with Cash, rather than Bonds. ;) I struggled over that, JHogue. :-) You’re right. Even though i*Bonds are often used for deep cash and certainly not for what we know as the Bond portion of the pp, I figured “Bond” is right in the name...