Search found 59 matches

by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 1:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I take solace in the fact that markets don't always react immediately (IIRC, in March of 2020 it seemed like everything was crashing, but then bonds and gold started to come back before stocks did and it was a great time to rebalance). Patience, grasshopper! :-) Maybe it was good time to rebalance ...
by stpeter
Tue May 03, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve ...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Is This a Tight-Money Recession?

With stocks, long-term bonds, and gold all down (not to mention GDP), I wonder if we're in one of those rare tight-money recessions that Harry Browne talked about...
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 8:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 3107

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Don wrote:
Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:16 am
I'm looking at a market crash ahead. Which asset in the PP will save us? Also, any non PP assets, possibly like TBT?
If the stock market crashes far enough (and who knows if it will?), you'll hit your rebalance bands and buy low. There's a reason this forum is called Gyroscopic Investing. :-)
by stpeter
Mon May 02, 2022 6:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 19
Views: 1188

Re: Overseas Gold? 2022

However, being serious now. Watch the Australian Elections this year. If socialist nutcases get into Government, I would re-evaluate storing Gold here. Between the right-wing Russophiles and left-wing wokesters that have taken over both US parties...and apparently everywhere else....where the hell ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 4914

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

It's not clear to me how I-bonds are deep cash, given that they mature in 30 years. What am I missing? You mean as opposed to being deep bonds? A bond matures in 30 years and you have no option to cash out early (not including the coupon) other than selling it, and its value can gyrate wildly. The ...
by stpeter
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November
Replies: 40
Views: 4914

Re: i-Bonds How-to Q&A as of 2021 November

The only thing I would quibble about is that this thread belongs with Cash, rather than Bonds. ;) I struggled over that, JHogue. :-) You’re right. Even though i*Bonds are often used for deep cash and certainly not for what we know as the Bond portion of the pp, I figured “Bond” is right in the name...
by stpeter
Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid SORR?
Replies: 33
Views: 3375

Re: Retiring in scary environment of 2022: Invest 100% of capital into PP now, or hold cash and deploy slowly to avoid S

Dollar cost average in, twice a year, over the next 2 years, might be a prudent way to go. When I got started with the PP a while back, I DCA'd quarterly over 2 years. I rested easier that way, and to me the PP is the sleep-well-at-night portfolio so it all fit together. You have to do what you're ...
by stpeter
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent portfolio poll
Replies: 32
Views: 5931

Re: Permanent portfolio poll

4x25 with 30/20% rebalance bands. Keeping it simple. :-)
by stpeter
Sat Jan 02, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 16
Views: 3312

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

21.42%. Rebalancing in early April helped!
by stpeter
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Investing Equanimity"
Replies: 41
Views: 15522

Re: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Equanimity Investing"

Way cool, and congratulations! I'd like to point out to everyone that blue_ruin's other book looks pretty good as well: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07RV5QM1Y/ Wow, yes. Can't wait to read this book. BTW blue_ruin your Amazon author page still shows only the one book, so you might want to upd...
by stpeter
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Commercial Gold Vaults in USA
Replies: 3
Views: 1934

Re: Commercial Gold Vaults in USA

Actually, when you look at the language of the law that created the Texas Bullion Depository, the act refers to any "gold depository in Texas." That would include the Texas Bullion Depository which is owned by Texas Precious Metals. "Q: Who owns the Texas Bullion Depository? A: The Texas Bullion De...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
Replies: 15
Views: 5451

Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help

Rebalance (i.e. distribute excess cash among the other assets) every so often - no need to wait until you hit the rebalancing band with cash. The whole thing above was great! Spelling it all out both concisely yet with detail. However, for we literalists out here, can you more precisely define "eve...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 96
Views: 52679

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Vinny, Just. Do. It. Not a simple task on my end, starting with having 7 different retirement accounts covering every possible different tax treatment for each of them. Whenever I'm going to do something of consequence I take my time to get all my questions answered, don't rush into it, and, conseq...
by stpeter
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 46
Views: 25854

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended. Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%. Great find! The original paper is well worth reading: http://reso...
by stpeter
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 46
Views: 25854

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended. Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%. Great find! The original paper is well worth reading: http://reso...
by stpeter
Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars
Replies: 10
Views: 2786

Re: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars

... Does anyone here on the forum price the four PP assets in terms of gold, not dollars? .. Ha! Not the assets, but I used to think about the equivalent of things like my home in ounces of gold. And my portfolio total. Problem is, I think of it in US$ first and then convert to gold using the spot ...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars
Replies: 10
Views: 2786

Pricing Assets in Gold, Not Dollars

Several recent threads set me to thinking about the long-term decline in the value of the dollar (and other fiat currencies). Does anyone here on the forum price the four PP assets in terms of gold, not dollars? There's an interesting website pricedingold.com that shows you the value of, say, an S&P...
by stpeter
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)
Replies: 17
Views: 5047

Re: Looking for recommendations for investing in paper gold (401k and Roth IRA)

When I adopted the permanent portfolio about 5 years ago, I did a bunch of research and got most comfortable with SGOL, in large measure because they store their physical gold in Switzerland.
by stpeter
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 39
Views: 9020

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

It makes me wonder if the PP could hold up to a situation where the US is steadily diluted out of being the world reserve currency while the long-term debt cycle comes to an end. What's your prediction on which currency will replace the U.S. dollar? Euro? The euro area economy is even weaker than t...
by stpeter
Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7433

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

2. I think it was craigr who pointed out that many of the largest companies in the S&P 500 have substantial commercial real estate holdings.That means an exposure to real property without the managerial risk and expenses associated with selecting and owning an individual REIT. That's a good point. ...
by stpeter
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7433

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

The PP seems to avoids real estate, perhaps because many people are already heavily invested through home ownership (I'd need to revisit what HB says). OK, I checked: HB discusses real estate on pages 114-115 of Fail Safe Investing. He focuses on the fact that your home is not an investment - inste...
by stpeter
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7433

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

Probably lost in my comment responding to ERN's article was this link to an article by the excellent financial advisor Steven Evanson: https://www.evansonasset.com/alternative-asset-classes-64.htm That's an interesting read. Thanks for sharing. Agreed. In his conclusion, the author states that "the...
by stpeter
Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is your current portfolio?
Replies: 36
Views: 22480

Re: What us your current portfolio?

I initially went all in with the PP in 2008 but transitioned to the GB about 3 years ago. The reason I did that was precisely for the reason people often warn about with the standard 4x4 - that it will be hard to stick with in times of prosperity when stocks are outperforming (hello Bud and Mathjak...