Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 22, 2026 4:19 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jan 22, 2026 4:05 pm Is it still there?

Looks like it was deleted?

Wrongthink shall not be tolerated!

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article entitled "Five Reasons Gold Is Surging Toward $5,000 an Ounce". In short: - The debasement trade / economic and political uncertainty - Lower interest rates / rotation out of government bonds - Central bank buying / de-dollarization - Stocks are e...

The big question is, how much is temporary and how much is permanent? WWHD? (What Would Harry Do?) It does seem that there are both short-term and long-term (secular) trends involved, but personally I don't know enough to tease out the factors. However, I do think it's something to keep an eye on. ...

I’m looking for websites or platforms where I can track the Permanent Portfolio on a daily basis. With all due respect, part of the appeal of the Permanent Portfolio and other "lazy portfolios" is that you don't need to, and shouldn't want to, track your portfolio on a daily basis. Monthl...

I asked Gemini Pro to do deep research on this topic, and it came up with an interesting research paper. The tl;dr is that while paper assets for the Ukrainian investor were devastated, the gold portion of the PP really saved the day. Yes, I know some people are wary of reading AI generated content...

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 5:00 pm I'm curious, if anyone else here did the same with their PP or maybe variants?

I rebalanced my Golden Butterfly in late September because of the runup in gold.

According to a new working paper (which I haven't read yet but plan to soon), long-term Treasuries might be losing their safe-haven status, with the result that investors are rotating to short-term Treasuries and gold. More here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34640

Is this something that you'd recommend, or do you think we get enough global exposure through U.S. companies that have a global economic presence? I think that US companies provide enough global exposure. I prefer to stick with only US equities primarily due to the currency risk. Stocks are in the ...

I've been thinking about adding a global (non-U.S.) component to my Golden Butterfly portfolio, because hey it's a big world out there and it wasn't nearly as big when Harry Browne defined the Permanent Portfolio back in the 1990s. (Yes, I know, on the one hand there is currency risk, but on the oth...

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 03, 2025 1:38 pm But, just because someone is interested in the permanent portfolio, that doesn’t mean they’re going to wind up here.

Let's face it, discussion forums (run on PHP, no less) are so 90s. These days all the cool kids are on TikTok or maybe Signal/Discord/Slack chats.

I guess the only counterpoint to having too much cash is that this is really about portfolio dynamics. It dampens the volatility of the entire portfolio. So if you want the HBPP / GB low ulcer index you would need the cash component, in the specified allocation range. With regard to my proposed &qu...

I feel like this applies to all portfolios. Once you have a ridiculous amount of money, perhaps some amounts should be specific minimum $(Euro) amounts and not necessarily %. Some very wealthy people purportedly keep all stocks and can live off the dividend payments. At that point I’d rather have a...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same. The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest tho...

It's not a huge difference, but the 20% weighting to LTTs in the Golden Butterfly is more palatable to me than the 25% in the Permanent Portfolio. Agreed. Indeed, I've been thinking about switching to what I'm calling the Golden Dragon (since it has bigger wings than the Golden Butterfly): 30% tota...

I've previously mentioned Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" as worth reading. For the 4x25 PP, Harry Browne set the rebalancing band at 15%/35%, but Daryanani's paper indicates that a rebalancing band of 20%/30% is more profitable. Pe...

Amazingly I also triggered a rebalance over the weekend and had to do all the legwork for that yesterday. Pretty crazy to make a trade to produce big profits, and then the next day see that asset tank. In ten plus years with the PP, similar things have happened a few times (big rebalance out of LTT...

Gold crossed into the "may rebalance" zone for my portfolio on Monday, which I define as within 2% of the "must rebalance" threshold. So I took advantage of that with a partial rebalance. Gold may eventually keep climbing, but it feels good to have taken a little off the table o...

As if on cue given discussion about our quiet forum, The Wall Street Journal just published an article entitled "Three Alternatives to the Classic 60/40 Portfolio to Consider Now" and the first portfolio featured is the 4x25 PP (the other two are the All-Weather Portfolio and the 30/70 Fli...

pmbug wrote: ↑Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:43 am There seems to be a breakdown in communication in the administration.

Ya think?

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report ba...

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report back.

Around the 3 minute mark, the narrator says "the more one rebalances, the better the performance" ... that seems counter-intuitive or at least counter to HB's insights (would one really rebalance, say, every day?).

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

According to the WSJ: "Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup share a price target of $3,000" an ounce in 2025. The reasons: lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, little industrial demand, and momentum. More details at https://www.wsj.com/finance/c...