pmbug wrote: ↑Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:43 am There seems to be a breakdown in communication in the administration.

Ya think?

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report ba...

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report back.

Around the 3 minute mark, the narrator says "the more one rebalances, the better the performance" ... that seems counter-intuitive or at least counter to HB's insights (would one really rebalance, say, every day?).

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

According to the WSJ: "Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup share a price target of $3,000" an ounce in 2025. The reasons: lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, little industrial demand, and momentum. More details at https://www.wsj.com/finance/c...

I don't know if Warren Buffett's choices for Berkshire offer anything actionable for individual investors. … He's always believed on having ample cash on hand to be able to take advantage of buying opportunities. … Looking at the context of the whole post, I thought stpeter was talking about advice...

I guess the question is how much "Insurance" (long bonds and gold) to own. Cullen Roche suggests 10% of each, but in most of the portfolio testing I've done it takes 15-20% gold to offer meaningful protection against sequence-of-returns-risk in retirement and/or to offset stock and bond m...

... the Fed has more legal power to print than when the PP was concocted. Im treating long bonds like gold, as insurance. You want most of your wealth in real assets that do work ie they are worth 100,000 widgets and they produce 1,000 widgets per month. So, a business or rental property. Basically...

Having rebalancing bands and sticking to them certainly helps most of the time - but not all of the time. Just look at what happened in 2022: VTI: -19.51% TLT: -31.41% GLD: -.077% SGOV (T-Bills) 1.58% And looking at market history, it is not at all uncommon for bonds and stocks to tank simultaneous...

I find it helpful to look at where gold and LTT's fit in his Defined Duration chart: https://disciplinefunds.com/defined-duration-investing/ You can see how both gold and LTT's are super long-duration assets that act as insurance when anomalous or "black swan" type events occur. Well, gol...

Like Hal, I've been meaning to start a thread on this topic, so thanks to all for your contributions. Deflation is the least likely scenario: it has happened just twice in U.S. history (1930-33 during the Great Depression and briefly from 2007-2009 during the GFC). It makes the least send of all to ...

But I won't hold metals at the Tx Bullion Depo... it's too darn costly! I looked at it once, spun away immediately. I can't quote you a number, but it must have been bad because it gave me a concussion and short term memory loss. On the other hand, I've been pretty happy with Texas Precious Metals ...

For traditional IRA types ... it ends up all the same with having it there or in taxable. Both taxed at ordinary income rates. Could be a different story for Roth IRA types. Only true if your marginal tax rate is the same when you're working as when you retire. In most case it isn't, your tax rate ...

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 6:15 pm I like dollar cost averaging over a year or so.

Agreed. When I started with the PP, I DCA'd my way in over the course of 18-24 months. 12 might be easier and more reasonable, though.

I follow the standard 4x25 PP with a 20/30 (not 15/35) rebalancing band. Keeping things simple enables me to sleep well at night, and makes rebalancing easier. But if I had to do it over I might have done the Golden Butterfly from the start, and I'm still considering a switch to GB.

To avoid this dilemma, I set a fixed day in the year in which I check the bands (20/30 in my case). If the portfolio has hit the bands at this specific date, I rebalance. The rest of the days I do nothing with it. As you will only check (and maybe rebalance) once a year, you can use narrower rebala...

Thanks to you both for sharing your perspective. It's good to know I'm not the only one. :-)

No matter what bands you use, when you get close to a rebalancing point you need to decide when exactly to pull the trigger. Yet from one perspective this goes against the PP policy of not checking your portfolio all the time and not trying to time the markets. As an example, back in October I think...

Here's another way to look at the challenging market for long-term bonds...

https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds ... irees-gain

I suppose every cloud has a silver lining!

IMHO, no sentence should include both "permanent portfolio" and "ideal time to invest". ;-) O0 I have been guilty of that, but mainly of saying it’s an ideal time to invest in the (entire) pp. There's an old proverb: the best time to plant a tree was 80 years ago; the second bes...

What if you had decided that it was today you were converting you existing portfolio to the Permanent Portfolio. Would you think that it was a good time to be buying the long-term bond portion? It never matters regarding the cash portion. Seems like not that bad a time to be buying the gold portion...

I'll rephrase to do you think in looking back at it you could have been glad to have made a substantial long-term bond purchase today? No, because that means I would have been timing the market. Every occurrence of happiness over a successful big purchase would be counterbalanced by an occurrence o...

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:57 am However, on the basis of the below could now be an ideal time to invest in the long-term bonds as part of the Permanent Portfolio plan?

IMHO, no sentence should include both "permanent portfolio" and "ideal time to invest". ;-)