I guess the only counterpoint to having too much cash is that this is really about portfolio dynamics. It dampens the volatility of the entire portfolio. So if you want the HBPP / GB low ulcer index you would need the cash component, in the specified allocation range. With regard to my proposed &qu...

I feel like this applies to all portfolios. Once you have a ridiculous amount of money, perhaps some amounts should be specific minimum $(Euro) amounts and not necessarily %. Some very wealthy people purportedly keep all stocks and can live off the dividend payments. At that point I’d rather have a...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same. The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest tho...

It's not a huge difference, but the 20% weighting to LTTs in the Golden Butterfly is more palatable to me than the 25% in the Permanent Portfolio. Agreed. Indeed, I've been thinking about switching to what I'm calling the Golden Dragon (since it has bigger wings than the Golden Butterfly): 30% tota...

I've previously mentioned Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" as worth reading. For the 4x25 PP, Harry Browne set the rebalancing band at 15%/35%, but Daryanani's paper indicates that a rebalancing band of 20%/30% is more profitable. Pe...

Amazingly I also triggered a rebalance over the weekend and had to do all the legwork for that yesterday. Pretty crazy to make a trade to produce big profits, and then the next day see that asset tank. In ten plus years with the PP, similar things have happened a few times (big rebalance out of LTT...

Gold crossed into the "may rebalance" zone for my portfolio on Monday, which I define as within 2% of the "must rebalance" threshold. So I took advantage of that with a partial rebalance. Gold may eventually keep climbing, but it feels good to have taken a little off the table o...

As if on cue given discussion about our quiet forum, The Wall Street Journal just published an article entitled "Three Alternatives to the Classic 60/40 Portfolio to Consider Now" and the first portfolio featured is the 4x25 PP (the other two are the All-Weather Portfolio and the 30/70 Fli...

pmbug wrote: ↑Sat Aug 09, 2025 6:43 am There seems to be a breakdown in communication in the administration.

Ya think?

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report ba...

P.S. Opinions seem to vary on what Jakob Fugger's investment strategies actually were, but from what I've read so far he did *not* advocate the 4x25 HBPP. I've ordered a book about him (entitled The Richest Man Who Ever Lived: The Life and Times of Jacob Fugger by Greg Steinmetz) and will report back.

Around the 3 minute mark, the narrator says "the more one rebalances, the better the performance" ... that seems counter-intuitive or at least counter to HB's insights (would one really rebalance, say, every day?).

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in the PP (15% and 35% bands) It's true that Harry Browne set the rebalancing bands at 15% and 35%, but I don't know if he crunched the numbers. FWIW, Gobind Daryanani's paper "Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers" indicates t...

According to the WSJ: "Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup share a price target of $3,000" an ounce in 2025. The reasons: lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, little industrial demand, and momentum. More details at https://www.wsj.com/finance/c...

I don't know if Warren Buffett's choices for Berkshire offer anything actionable for individual investors. … He's always believed on having ample cash on hand to be able to take advantage of buying opportunities. … Looking at the context of the whole post, I thought stpeter was talking about advice...

I guess the question is how much "Insurance" (long bonds and gold) to own. Cullen Roche suggests 10% of each, but in most of the portfolio testing I've done it takes 15-20% gold to offer meaningful protection against sequence-of-returns-risk in retirement and/or to offset stock and bond m...

... the Fed has more legal power to print than when the PP was concocted. Im treating long bonds like gold, as insurance. You want most of your wealth in real assets that do work ie they are worth 100,000 widgets and they produce 1,000 widgets per month. So, a business or rental property. Basically...

Having rebalancing bands and sticking to them certainly helps most of the time - but not all of the time. Just look at what happened in 2022: VTI: -19.51% TLT: -31.41% GLD: -.077% SGOV (T-Bills) 1.58% And looking at market history, it is not at all uncommon for bonds and stocks to tank simultaneous...

I find it helpful to look at where gold and LTT's fit in his Defined Duration chart: https://disciplinefunds.com/defined-duration-investing/ You can see how both gold and LTT's are super long-duration assets that act as insurance when anomalous or "black swan" type events occur. Well, gol...

Like Hal, I've been meaning to start a thread on this topic, so thanks to all for your contributions. Deflation is the least likely scenario: it has happened just twice in U.S. history (1930-33 during the Great Depression and briefly from 2007-2009 during the GFC). It makes the least send of all to ...

But I won't hold metals at the Tx Bullion Depo... it's too darn costly! I looked at it once, spun away immediately. I can't quote you a number, but it must have been bad because it gave me a concussion and short term memory loss. On the other hand, I've been pretty happy with Texas Precious Metals ...

For traditional IRA types ... it ends up all the same with having it there or in taxable. Both taxed at ordinary income rates. Could be a different story for Roth IRA types. Only true if your marginal tax rate is the same when you're working as when you retire. In most case it isn't, your tax rate ...

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 6:15 pm I like dollar cost averaging over a year or so.

Agreed. When I started with the PP, I DCA'd my way in over the course of 18-24 months. 12 might be easier and more reasonable, though.

I follow the standard 4x25 PP with a 20/30 (not 15/35) rebalancing band. Keeping things simple enables me to sleep well at night, and makes rebalancing easier. But if I had to do it over I might have done the Golden Butterfly from the start, and I'm still considering a switch to GB.