Search found 762 matches

by rickb
Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Derivatives Risk
Replies: 18
Views: 7373

Re: Derivatives Risk

In a quick read of the VTI and TLT prospectuses, there only seem to be the standard market risks, they do not use derivatives. Perhaps TLT doesn't directly deal in derivatives, but in a market collapse like the one narrowly averted in 2008 (thank you, Obama) my guess is TLT would end up not looking...
by rickb
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Black hole observation
Replies: 3
Views: 2279

Re: Black hole observation

This is one of the coolest science projects I've ever heard of. I'm pretty sure that 50 years ago it would have been considered impossible in the next 1000 years. http://www.eventhorizontelescope.org/science/index.html From their paper published in Science: High frequency VLBI work at MIT Haystack ...
by rickb
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Everything costs too much and everybody is wrong about it and who the hell knows how to fix it?
Replies: 142
Views: 37267

Re: Everything costs too much and everybody is wrong about it and who the hell knows how to fix it?

If these current financial and real estate bubbles were to pop, and we had another Great Depression, could we at least expect some 1930s style deflation to lower these prices? Or would we have stagflation? I would expect the taps to open at the Federal Reserve, converting a depression into hyperinf...
by rickb
Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 218060

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

My PP was up 4.76% in Jan with a normal PP up 2% (I've read). Anyone else care to share some results? The theoretical PP I track for benchmark purposes (25% each SHY/TLT/VTI/GLD, rebalanced monthly) was up 2.05% in January. My actual PP (not recently rebalanced but within 15/35 bands, and with a va...
by rickb
Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer
Replies: 71
Views: 32198

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Coal supporters in Wyoming have introduced a bill that would effectively prohibit Wyoming utilities from using renewable energy sources:

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/1201 ... nge-denial
by rickb
Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 36
Views: 10568

Re: Estate tax & Trump

Actually, Gates is a great example. I don't know this for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that nearly all of his net worth consists of Microsoft stock on which he's never paid a nickel in taxes . Is that true? Every time I've receive stock compensation I've had to pay taxes on the shares. Also, isn...
by rickb
Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 36
Views: 10568

Re: Estate tax & Trump

It always struck me as informative that even most ordinary people consider the estate tax to be distasteful, for lack of a better word. Even looking at someone like say Bill Gates, I don't find that most people think the rest of us are entitled to whatever percent of his wealth upon his and Melinda...
by rickb
Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 36
Views: 10568

Re: Estate tax & Trump

The money has already been taxed. Why should the government tax it again when you die, just because you didn't spend it? Actually, most of the money has NOT been taxed - consisting of unrealized capital gains. See http://americansfortaxfairness.org/tax-fairness-briefing-booklet/fact-sheet-the-estat...
by rickb
Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Estate tax & Trump
Replies: 36
Views: 10568

Re: Estate tax & Trump

LazyInvestor wrote:Does anyone know if there are any expected changes to the estate tax with Trump administration?
Trump has said he wants to completely eliminate the estate tax. Of course, this affects only the upper 0.2% of households in the US and creates a relatively permanent plutocratic class so why not?
by rickb
Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is America Safe, Or Not?
Replies: 30
Views: 9627

Re: Is America Safe, Or Not?

ochotona wrote:I hate getting older
The alternative isn't that great either.
by rickb
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: First-Time Home Buying
Replies: 13
Views: 6408

Re: First-Time Home Buying

Hire a lawyer to represent your interests (e.g. not the realtor's lawyer) in the purchase and have him/her review all paperwork before closing. A little more on this. When you first start looking for a home you may end up with a realtor who "helps" you find what you're looking for. Unless you speci...
by rickb
Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 37660

Re: PP Performance for 2016

Hey rickb, Can you please explain how you are doing your treasury ladder? When I think of laddering, I always think of having CDs or treasuries with different maturities. Are you working with a range of, say, one to three years? Also, is this with Fidelity? I am just wondering about any expenses in...
by rickb
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 37660

Re: PP Performance for 2016

I track a theoretical PP consisting of 25% each SHY/TLT/GLD/VTI rebalanced monthly (for benchmarking purposes). I get 5.71% for the year for this. My actual PP (90% of total assets) returned about 5.92%. My "to do" list is (actually was since I've done this) to pay slightly more attention to the cas...
by rickb
Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 1
Views: 2162

Re: TLT vs Individual Bonds

barb wrote:What are the pros/cons of buying TLT vs individual bonds.
We've talked about this before, see (e.g.) http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... f=3&t=4223
by rickb
Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Who understands bonds?
Replies: 9
Views: 7131

Re: Who understands bonds?

Bonds are tough to understand pour moi. Can I ask a question(s)? When people post results of backtesting bonds (here and at sites like portfoliocharts.com) are they the results of a fund like TLT or are they the results of the cost of a 30 yr individual bond? I think most folks use data from the "S...
by rickb
Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Age tilting the PP
Replies: 17
Views: 9189

Re: Age tilting the PP

So a 26-year old would be 64-12-12-12, while a 63-year old would be 27-21-21-21? With what rebalanciing bands? This seems like a problem Tyler might be interested in attacking. My guess is that this wins/loses vs. a traditional HBPP about 50% of the time depending on the start date. Which means unle...
by rickb
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Traditional development
Replies: 27
Views: 9916

Re: Traditional development

Following Sophie's idea, I just looked at my county and city budgets. But the real scandal is school funding. It's the same thing at the state level: 42% of New Mexico's budget goes to education. And New Mexico has terrible educational outcomes compared to other states. Even more than roads and wel...
by rickb
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Recent article on PP
Replies: 13
Views: 6494

Re: Recent article on PP

stuper, My guess is that you would have had that problem anyway and it was more a discipline vs. portfolio issue. (Not that I can cast stones at anyone...I think many people have or had that challenge including me.) ...which IMO is one thing that makes the PP a good portfolio for someone in their 2...
by rickb
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 40259

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

I have now lost like 2/3 of this year's gain. Why the fuck cannot even one year work out remotely decent? It will. It never feels like it at these points, but it will. What would you have done otherwise? More stock? More active trading? Just curious. I don't track year to date returns, but I'm up a...
by rickb
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Draining the Swamp?
Replies: 23
Views: 8435

Re: Draining the Swamp?

Trump has just saved 1000 US jobs by negotiating with Carrier to keep them in the US. Probably more jobs than than O did in 8 years. How about before we downgrade Trump we see what he actually does? More jobs than O did in 8 years???????????? Excuse me, but didn't Obama keep GM in business? Wasn't ...
by rickb
Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 40259

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

On the other hand, I'm skeptical of the PP's ability to withstand an idiot congress led by an ignoramus who together seem like the perfect storm that may end up with the US defaulting on Treasuries and/or the US dollar losing its worldwide reserve currency status. Are you referring to Congress not ...
by rickb
Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 40259

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

So let me get this straight. Everybody is whining like crazy for ages that rates are waayyyyy too low, and when they finally rise a tiny tiny bit, everybody goes full-mental mode...? Look at the longterm chart, it barely moved, it's still a loonnnnggg way down to get to normal rates. And it's still...
by rickb
Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ACA (Obamacare) v2.0
Replies: 26
Views: 7715

Re: ACA (Obamacare) v2.0

http://s19.postimg.org/a8cbj5g4z/screenshot_2016_11_16_at_13_09_27.png What's the point you're trying to make with this graph? It apparently shows the average cost of employer sponsored policies, not policies from the exchanges. The rate of growth is (approximately) 100% from 2000 to 2008, and more...
by rickb
Tue Nov 15, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Post election MERKX vs SHY performance
Replies: 1
Views: 4892

Post election MERKX vs SHY performance

Can anyone explain this to me? http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?merkx%2C%20shy Please move the slider so the comparison is for the last week. Wouldn't uncertainty in the US intuitively drive folks away from short term US Treasuries rather than (differentially) toward them? I completely und...
by rickb
Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Authoritarians
Replies: 56
Views: 16257

Re: The Authoritarians

So, has anyone read the book yet?