Search found 91 matches

by mortalpawn
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 163
Views: 85790

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I've started very slowly moving into the Golden Butterfly from the PP after being in the PP for the last 3+ years (though returns the last few years were a bit weak). It does make me a bit nervous as the small value and regular large stock funds have about an 80% correlation (much higher than the ot...
by mortalpawn
Sun Apr 03, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 53
Views: 25305

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The debt bomb is a big problem, but it pales in size to the derivatives market.  Global debt is about 200 trillion against a world GDP of around 60 trillion.  So yes it global debt is unsustainable and will never be paid back.  Ultimately it will be printed or defaulted away at some point. However g...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Role of cash in the absence of tight money
Replies: 7
Views: 4374

Re: Role of cash in the absence of tight money

Cash hedges against deflation, which is what we are seeing (in part) with the rising dollar.  As the dollar increases in value, other assets become cheaper and it is actually better to hold cash than stocks, bonds, or gold.  Also if the stock or bond bubbles do pop, there will likely be a fire sale ...
by mortalpawn
Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...
Replies: 73
Views: 24924

Re: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...

I will point out that drawdowns are not uncommon even with the PP.  On average there have been 7 drawdowns of over 10% since 1975 and 42 drawdowns of over 5%.  So a 5% drawdown is not really a significant event (happening almost once a year for the last 40 years). Hopefully you can handle a small 3-...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?
Replies: 29
Views: 12755

Re: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?

Outstanding post, mortalpawn. Your points also imply that holding international equities probably does not provide useful diversification for the PP - or indeed for any stock/bond portfolio. We can see Emerging Market equities were great to hold during the "great expansion" - zero interest rates he...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse
Replies: 8
Views: 5477

Re: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse

Nice post, mortalpawn. Just curious how much cash folks are holding if it's more than 25%. 40%? 50% More? I'm still a PP believer, so the bulk of my funds are still in PP.  However I did rebalance two months back and slightly underweighted stocks/bonds based on the fact that both were near historic...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse
Replies: 8
Views: 5477

Re: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse

My take is deflation is a real possibility in the short term.  A variety of forces (collapsing commodity prices, collapsing worldwide production/demand, collapsing oil prices, China, reversing of the dollar carry trade, demise of the petrodollar) are forcing the dollar higher, and suppressing bond p...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?
Replies: 29
Views: 12755

Re: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?

Several reasons for treasuries staying down - collectively now being called "Quantitative tightening":   - Even though "treasuries" are typically a safe harbor when the stock market declines, worldwide debt levels are double what they were, corporate debt has nearly doubled,  the $500+trillion deri...
by mortalpawn
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Black Monday
Replies: 79
Views: 27708

Re: Black Monday

Dow is down almost 700 now and looks to be accelerating into the close.  Looks like the Fed's Plunge Team could not stem the tide. Don't give up on your PP - people are selling everything today to cover their margin bets and shadow derivatives which may continue for a while, but I'm betting that tar...
by mortalpawn
Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Black Monday
Replies: 79
Views: 27708

Black Monday

Thoughts on today's markets (8/24 or #BlackMonday)? I think the insanity of this fed driven market is reaching a crescendo.  It looks like the Fed Plunge Protection Team got busy at the open propping up stocks and hammering down gold and treasuries, but liquidity was so thin in the first few hours t...
by mortalpawn
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold
Replies: 47
Views: 23816

Re: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold

I predict that it will hit a bottom precisely when I decide to sell some gold.  Then it will rise rapidly to a new high ;) I don't personally see it going much below 1100, but its hard to say since there is some serious manipulation, or at least 6 sigma events going on in the market plus continued p...
by mortalpawn
Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Today
Replies: 3
Views: 3373

Re: PP Today

No need to panic.  The down day Friday was due in part to some one-off events:   - Gold crashed (along with silver and platinum) because the CME raised margin requirements for everything but stocks (an administrative move - likely in response to oil and overall market volatility)   - This is somethi...
by mortalpawn
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Does the momentum behind GLD make it the best/safest ETF??
Replies: 7
Views: 4639

Re: Does the momentum behind GLD make it the best/safest ETF??

I looked into the risks of these some time ago and finally decided to diversify by holding several ETFs instead of just one like GLD.  In fact GLD is one of the funds that made me most nervous after reading the detailed agreement. As others have pointed out, they are all "paper" gold and can disappe...
by mortalpawn
Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the Swiss Franc Decoupling?
Replies: 5
Views: 2887

Thoughts on the Swiss Franc Decoupling?

In a shocking move, the Swiss National Bank decoupled the Franc from the Euro today (it was previously pinned at 1.20 EUR) - causing chaos in the currency markets.  The potential effects appear to be broad - impacting not only the Euro, but the Dollar, Gold, Oil, Russia, Greece, Brazil and many othe...
by mortalpawn
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 13
Views: 8479

Re: Inflation Spiral

My first argument may have been too complex to understand so I'll try a simpler one: By the law of supply and demand when you raise the price of something (aka labor) you get less of it.  Higher wages means fewer jobs - no matter how much our political leaders and Keynesian's, Krugmans, and Pikettys...
by mortalpawn
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Inflation Spiral
Replies: 13
Views: 8479

Re: Inflation Spiral

Its a largely political move - to appeal to the Democratic base.  It ultimately hurts the same people that support it, along with small business owners. Only about 4.3% of workers make the minimum wage (95.7% make more) now, so it will not affect a huge number of workers or substantially drive price...
by mortalpawn
Tue Dec 02, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What form of physical gold to buy?
Replies: 18
Views: 11249

Re: What form of physical gold to buy?

We all love to take our coins out and fondle them (at least I did before the horrible boating accident ;) I would stick with the major coins - in the one troy ounce size if you can afford them (or save up to buy them):   - Eagles and Maple leafs are most widely accepted in the US (US mint Buffalos t...
by mortalpawn
Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Swiss vote on Gold
Replies: 23
Views: 10796

Re: Swiss vote on Gold

From the polls it appears unlikely to pass - largely because it would break the "Euro peg" as the Swiss Franc has been pegged to the Euro the last few years.  If the Swiss bank can't freely print currency they won't be able to maintain the peg and the Franc will rise quickly, hurting exports.  The c...
by mortalpawn
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25963

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Nothing at all suspicious about 9,000 short contracts for gold (20x the normal volume) being dumped on the lunchtime Asian markets in a minute or two (where liquidity is thinnest from a global perspective) at the same time every other day for the last month - right?   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2...
by mortalpawn
Thu Nov 20, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25963

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities -  this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others:   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2...
by mortalpawn
Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25963

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

  Read "Gold wars" - gold is not like other commodities, it is certainly nothing like the stock market in terms of liquidity, and unfortunately is subject to manipulation in the futures market by major banks and even central banks.  The banks would not be subject to prosecution and settlements if it...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658265

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm 5% in planetary alignment futures I've gone short on "planetary alignment futures" and long on "stupidity" and "government growth" - I'm thinking both of those are going to pay off. Seriously - the PP seems to be doing just fine - I can even live with the slight draw-down last year as a small p...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25963

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Why are you repeating these conspiracy theories? Sorry - did not mean to muddy up the discussion with the presentation of facts.  UBS is just one of many - but today we hear from Swiss Government regulators: Switzerland's financial watchdog said on Wednesday it had found a "clear attempt" to manipu...
by mortalpawn
Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25963

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

For those of you who believe gold market manipulation does not exist - UBS (formerly Swiss bank) agreed to settle allegations over its gold trading today: UBS is to settle allegations of misconduct at its precious metals trading business alongside a planned agreement between UK and US authorities an...
by mortalpawn
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1658265

Re: The GOLD scream room

Stocks and bonds will always go up, and gold will always go down...until they don't!