Search found 91 matches

by mortalpawn
Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39470

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I've started very slowly moving into the Golden Butterfly from the PP after being in the PP for the last 3+ years (though returns the last few years were a bit weak). It does make me a bit nervous as the small value and regular large stock funds have about an 80% correlation (much higher than the ot...
by mortalpawn
Sun Apr 03, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 12302

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The debt bomb is a big problem, but it pales in size to the derivatives market.  Global debt is about 200 trillion against a world GDP of around 60 trillion.  So yes it global debt is unsustainable and will never be paid back.  Ultimately it will be printed or defaulted away at some point. However g...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 16, 2015 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Role of cash in the absence of tight money
Replies: 7
Views: 1983

Re: Role of cash in the absence of tight money

Cash hedges against deflation, which is what we are seeing (in part) with the rising dollar.  As the dollar increases in value, other assets become cheaper and it is actually better to hold cash than stocks, bonds, or gold.  Also if the stock or bond bubbles do pop, there will likely be a fire sale ...
by mortalpawn
Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...
Replies: 75
Views: 9973

Re: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...

I will point out that drawdowns are not uncommon even with the PP.  On average there have been 7 drawdowns of over 10% since 1975 and 42 drawdowns of over 5%.  So a 5% drawdown is not really a significant event (happening almost once a year for the last 40 years). Hopefully you can handle a small 3-...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?
Replies: 30
Views: 4753

Re: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?

Outstanding post, mortalpawn. Your points also imply that holding international equities probably does not provide useful diversification for the PP - or indeed for any stock/bond portfolio. We can see Emerging Market equities were great to hold during the "great expansion" - zero interest rates he...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse
Replies: 8
Views: 2415

Re: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse

Nice post, mortalpawn. Just curious how much cash folks are holding if it's more than 25%. 40%? 50% More? I'm still a PP believer, so the bulk of my funds are still in PP.  However I did rebalance two months back and slightly underweighted stocks/bonds based on the fact that both were near historic...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse
Replies: 8
Views: 2415

Re: Dealing with Deflationary Collapse

My take is deflation is a real possibility in the short term.  A variety of forces (collapsing commodity prices, collapsing worldwide production/demand, collapsing oil prices, China, reversing of the dollar carry trade, demise of the petrodollar) are forcing the dollar higher, and suppressing bond p...
by mortalpawn
Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?
Replies: 30
Views: 4753

Re: Why aren't long term treasuries going up more?

Several reasons for treasuries staying down - collectively now being called "Quantitative tightening":   - Even though "treasuries" are typically a safe harbor when the stock market declines, worldwide debt levels are double what they were, corporate debt has nearly doubled,  the $500+trillion deri...
by mortalpawn
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Black Monday
Replies: 83
Views: 11377

Re: Black Monday

Dow is down almost 700 now and looks to be accelerating into the close.  Looks like the Fed's Plunge Team could not stem the tide. Don't give up on your PP - people are selling everything today to cover their margin bets and shadow derivatives which may continue for a while, but I'm betting that tar...
by mortalpawn
Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Black Monday
Replies: 83
Views: 11377

Black Monday

Thoughts on today's markets (8/24 or #BlackMonday)? I think the insanity of this fed driven market is reaching a crescendo.  It looks like the Fed Plunge Protection Team got busy at the open propping up stocks and hammering down gold and treasuries, but liquidity was so thin in the first few hours t...
by mortalpawn
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold
Replies: 54
Views: 12291

Re: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold

I predict that it will hit a bottom precisely when I decide to sell some gold.  Then it will rise rapidly to a new high ;) I don't personally see it going much below 1100, but its hard to say since there is some serious manipulation, or at least 6 sigma events going on in the market plus continued p...
by mortalpawn
Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Today
Replies: 3
Views: 1902

Re: PP Today

No need to panic.  The down day Friday was due in part to some one-off events:   - Gold crashed (along with silver and platinum) because the CME raised margin requirements for everything but stocks (an administrative move - likely in response to oil and overall market volatility)   - This is somethi...