Search found 148 matches
- Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:01 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
- Replies: 59
- Views: 48039
Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
3 year duration is simply unworkable for the PP, you need 20+, ideally 25-30 year. If you can't get your hands on long-term domestic government bonds, can you get access to German LTT's? 3 year duration can be fine, as long as you'll reduce your gold exposure accordingly. You don't need as much inf...
- Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:32 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
- Replies: 59
- Views: 48039
Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
But there's a personal reason I don't want stocks to be a large part of my portfolio: volatility. I'm a contractor, I've got enough risk in my life and I do not wish to see my savings go up and down with the stock market. That's a very good reason to feel attracted to a conservative portfolio like ...
- Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:29 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
- Replies: 59
- Views: 48039
Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
I'm afraid I can't be of much help regarding choice of bonds. German bonds are usually advised but as you're Dutch you could argue that there is no need for foreign bonds. Dutch bonds are considered almost as safe as German bonds. There is no long-term bond etf for Dutch treasuries as far as I know,...
- Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
- Replies: 19
- Views: 16940
Re: Starting in Europe, questions
Everything is a trade-off :) I believe that keeping it simple is very important for being able to stay the course long-term. You can spend many, many hours thinking/worrying about which ETF's to choose, where to keep them etc etc. In the end it probably won't matter much, if at all. It's better to s...
- Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:09 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
- Replies: 19
- Views: 16940
Re: Starting in Europe, questions
I'll try to answer your questions. Fund size ranges from 358 to 5651m. Does this matter? ETF's with more assets under management tend to have a lower spread (difference between bid and ask price of the ETF) en tend to track their index more closely. As long as the ETF isn't too small it won't make m...
- Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:27 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
- Replies: 19
- Views: 16940
Re: Starting in Europe, questions
Hi Europeanwizard! Picking a stock etf can indeed be highly confusing when you're just starting out. People on this board who are running a eurozone PP tend to use the following ETF's: For eurozone stocks: iShares Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR - TER 0.10% - Ticker CSX5 iShares MSCI EMU UCITS ETF ...
- Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:49 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Moving out of the PP
- Replies: 10
- Views: 8878
Re: Moving out of the PP
It sounds like you've made up your mind, but do consider keeping that 10% in gold on the side. It's not so much that it'll be too daunting, but it's enough to serve as a decent insurance policy in case of a future 1970s style event. Just buying some coins to balance your retirement accounts is all ...
- Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:05 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Moving out of the PP
- Replies: 10
- Views: 8878
Moving out of the PP
Lately I’ve been looking to simplify certain areas of my life and I had to admit to myself that I had more doubts about my Permanent Portfolio then I’d like to. Ever since I’ve began adding new money to move my portfolio closer to the 4x25 allocation (5/6 years!) I’ve kept a feeling of unease about ...
- Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Slowly bleeding
- Replies: 67
- Views: 42566
Re: Slowly bleeding
Dutch wealth tax is pretty bad, but you can get some 5 year cd's which yield about 0.8% real, so -0.4 after tax which is not too bad I guess in this environment. Net taxes are probably slightly lower as the first 20/40k are not taxed. Eurozone 30y bonds yield less than 5y cd's so they should probabl...
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:07 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
Don't think adding 1% will make any kind of difference whatsoever.How much of a 25% allocation to gold do people find reasonable to put into senior and junior gold miners for a bit of juice? I'm thinking 1%
- Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:03 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
'Deep risk' was an interesting read, thanks for reminding me Kevin! Bernstein's answer to most forms of deep risk is, as usual, stocks. Keep as much cash/short term treasuries as necessary and put the rest in global stocks, preferrably value-tilted. Maybe add some bullion or gold stocks. That's abou...
- Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
The thing is I'm not talking about the Desert portfolio, I'm talking about short term fixed income, 2.5-3y duration for the 60% fixed income part. The higher duration of the Desert portfolio makes it vulnarable in a 70's scenario. When you lower the gold allocation compared to the PP, you have to lo...
- Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:33 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
P.S. Technically, zero duration cash doesn't decline in a rising rate environment. It is going up in real terms and gaining purchasing power vs all other currencies. So while 1-yr T-Bills could decline a wee bit, the loss is quickly offset by reinvesting at the higher rates. This assumes, of course...
- Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
The Desert portfolio on portfoliocharts doesn't use short term treasuries. With STT's the picture changes. When you lower your gold allocation, you have to lower your duration as well. I believe Desert himself uses tilted stocks and intermediate treasuries. I haven't lived through the seventies so I...
- Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:47 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Re: Can we trust low correlations?
Thanks for the replies so far, I agree with the idea that an allocation like the PP could very well be good enough, and that it doesn't make sense to overcomplicate it. Part of me believes however that the PP itself might already be overcomplicating things. Or maybe not exactly overcomplicating, as ...
- Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:06 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 30121
Can we trust low correlations?
One of my concerns with the 4x25 portfolio is that 75% of its assets are highly volatile. The usual response is that you shouldn't look at assets in isolation, and so far in the history of the PP that has played out very well. The correlations between the three volatile asset classes have drifted ov...
- Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:33 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
- Replies: 6
- Views: 7979
Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
Seems like a good enough portfolio to me. Are you planning to use a 4x25 allocation? Most important question is do you think you can stay the course with this 'custom' portfolio? Also make sure you're aware of all the implications when using US domiciled etf's: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Nonres...
- Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:17 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
- Replies: 6
- Views: 7979
Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
That's a complicated situation... Have you thought about talking to an advisor? Your current plan seems really complicated to me. Have you seen the thread about a global PP? Using global stocks/bonds might make sense and you'd only need two etf's for that. Ishares has a high quality global bond etf....
- Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:13 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 366609
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. Yes, and the PP is also not likely to repeat the same succe...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:07 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3858
Re: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
No idea. Do they need to be paid out? Won't they be converted straight away to the new currency? I guess it's quite likely though that Germany and some other northern countries will continue with the euro in one way or another, and that the southern countries will be cut loose at some point. But who...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:16 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 366609
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. It can still make sense to hold SCV but there's no reason t...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:10 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
- Replies: 4
- Views: 3858
Re: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
The good thing is, you are already pretty well protected. One of that advantages of the Eurozone is that you, as a Portuguese, can own much higher quality bonds (compared to Portugese bond) WITHOUT any currency risk. That's pretty amazing. German/Dutch/Austrian bonds are great for 'flight to quality...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 366609
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. It can still make sense to hold SCV but there's no reason to...
- Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:33 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 539
- Views: 366609
Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
My only issue with the Desert Oasis is that it doesn't hold any cash. As someone who is looking to retire in the next little while, that's an important consideration. One could argue that the treasuries and stocks are kicking off a lot of interest and dividends, I guess. My recollection is that Des...
- Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
- Replies: 212
- Views: 96028
Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort
Gotta love the name of the indices though: "Scientific Beta Diversified Multi-Strategy Factor Indices"