Search found 148 matches

by koekebakker
Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 47057

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

3 year duration is simply unworkable for the PP, you need 20+, ideally 25-30 year. If you can't get your hands on long-term domestic government bonds, can you get access to German LTT's? 3 year duration can be fine, as long as you'll reduce your gold exposure accordingly. You don't need as much inf...
by koekebakker
Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 47057

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

But there's a personal reason I don't want stocks to be a large part of my portfolio: volatility. I'm a contractor, I've got enough risk in my life and I do not wish to see my savings go up and down with the stock market. That's a very good reason to feel attracted to a conservative portfolio like ...
by koekebakker
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 47057

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

I'm afraid I can't be of much help regarding choice of bonds. German bonds are usually advised but as you're Dutch you could argue that there is no need for foreign bonds. Dutch bonds are considered almost as safe as German bonds. There is no long-term bond etf for Dutch treasuries as far as I know,...
by koekebakker
Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
Replies: 19
Views: 16613

Re: Starting in Europe, questions

Everything is a trade-off :) I believe that keeping it simple is very important for being able to stay the course long-term. You can spend many, many hours thinking/worrying about which ETF's to choose, where to keep them etc etc. In the end it probably won't matter much, if at all. It's better to s...
by koekebakker
Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
Replies: 19
Views: 16613

Re: Starting in Europe, questions

I'll try to answer your questions. Fund size ranges from 358 to 5651m. Does this matter? ETF's with more assets under management tend to have a lower spread (difference between bid and ask price of the ETF) en tend to track their index more closely. As long as the ETF isn't too small it won't make m...
by koekebakker
Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
Replies: 19
Views: 16613

Re: Starting in Europe, questions

Hi Europeanwizard! Picking a stock etf can indeed be highly confusing when you're just starting out. People on this board who are running a eurozone PP tend to use the following ETF's: For eurozone stocks: iShares Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR - TER 0.10% - Ticker CSX5 iShares MSCI EMU UCITS ETF ...
by koekebakker
Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moving out of the PP
Replies: 10
Views: 8709

Re: Moving out of the PP

It sounds like you've made up your mind, but do consider keeping that 10% in gold on the side. It's not so much that it'll be too daunting, but it's enough to serve as a decent insurance policy in case of a future 1970s style event. Just buying some coins to balance your retirement accounts is all ...
by koekebakker
Sun Dec 18, 2016 7:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moving out of the PP
Replies: 10
Views: 8709

Moving out of the PP

Lately I’ve been looking to simplify certain areas of my life and I had to admit to myself that I had more doubts about my Permanent Portfolio then I’d like to. Ever since I’ve began adding new money to move my portfolio closer to the 4x25 allocation (5/6 years!) I’ve kept a feeling of unease about ...
by koekebakker
Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41730

Re: Slowly bleeding

Dutch wealth tax is pretty bad, but you can get some 5 year cd's which yield about 0.8% real, so -0.4 after tax which is not too bad I guess in this environment. Net taxes are probably slightly lower as the first 20/40k are not taxed. Eurozone 30y bonds yield less than 5y cd's so they should probabl...
by koekebakker
Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

How much of a 25% allocation to gold do people find reasonable to put into senior and junior gold miners for a bit of juice? I'm thinking 1%
Don't think adding 1% will make any kind of difference whatsoever.
by koekebakker
Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

'Deep risk' was an interesting read, thanks for reminding me Kevin! Bernstein's answer to most forms of deep risk is, as usual, stocks. Keep as much cash/short term treasuries as necessary and put the rest in global stocks, preferrably value-tilted. Maybe add some bullion or gold stocks. That's abou...
by koekebakker
Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

The thing is I'm not talking about the Desert portfolio, I'm talking about short term fixed income, 2.5-3y duration for the 60% fixed income part. The higher duration of the Desert portfolio makes it vulnarable in a 70's scenario. When you lower the gold allocation compared to the PP, you have to lo...
by koekebakker
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

P.S. Technically, zero duration cash doesn't decline in a rising rate environment. It is going up in real terms and gaining purchasing power vs all other currencies. So while 1-yr T-Bills could decline a wee bit, the loss is quickly offset by reinvesting at the higher rates. This assumes, of course...
by koekebakker
Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

The Desert portfolio on portfoliocharts doesn't use short term treasuries. With STT's the picture changes. When you lower your gold allocation, you have to lower your duration as well. I believe Desert himself uses tilted stocks and intermediate treasuries. I haven't lived through the seventies so I...
by koekebakker
Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

Thanks for the replies so far, I agree with the idea that an allocation like the PP could very well be good enough, and that it doesn't make sense to overcomplicate it. Part of me believes however that the PP itself might already be overcomplicating things. Or maybe not exactly overcomplicating, as ...
by koekebakker
Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29477

Can we trust low correlations?

One of my concerns with the 4x25 portfolio is that 75% of its assets are highly volatile. The usual response is that you shouldn't look at assets in isolation, and so far in the history of the PP that has played out very well. The correlations between the three volatile asset classes have drifted ov...
by koekebakker
Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
Replies: 6
Views: 7869

Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix

Seems like a good enough portfolio to me. Are you planning to use a 4x25 allocation? Most important question is do you think you can stay the course with this 'custom' portfolio? Also make sure you're aware of all the implications when using US domiciled etf's: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Nonres...
by koekebakker
Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix
Replies: 6
Views: 7869

Re: Feedback on a EU/US/SWE PP mix

That's a complicated situation... Have you thought about talking to an advisor? Your current plan seems really complicated to me. Have you seen the thread about a global PP? Using global stocks/bonds might make sense and you'd only need two etf's for that. Ishares has a high quality global bond etf....
by koekebakker
Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350597

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. Yes, and the PP is also not likely to repeat the same succe...
by koekebakker
Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
Replies: 4
Views: 3784

Re: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution

No idea. Do they need to be paid out? Won't they be converted straight away to the new currency? I guess it's quite likely though that Germany and some other northern countries will continue with the euro in one way or another, and that the southern countries will be cut loose at some point. But who...
by koekebakker
Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350597

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. It can still make sense to hold SCV but there's no reason t...
by koekebakker
Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution
Replies: 4
Views: 3784

Re: End of EURO - Exit of EUROZone - Solution

The good thing is, you are already pretty well protected. One of that advantages of the Eurozone is that you, as a Portuguese, can own much higher quality bonds (compared to Portugese bond) WITHOUT any currency risk. That's pretty amazing. German/Dutch/Austrian bonds are great for 'flight to quality...
by koekebakker
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350597

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Regarding the GB: if something looks too good to be true... SCV backtests so well because of the very high returns over the last 40 years and because of the low correlation. The holy grail basically. Both are unlikely to repeat themselves. It can still make sense to hold SCV but there's no reason to...
by koekebakker
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350597

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

My only issue with the Desert Oasis is that it doesn't hold any cash. As someone who is looking to retire in the next little while, that's an important consideration. One could argue that the treasuries and stocks are kicking off a lot of interest and dividends, I guess. My recollection is that Des...
by koekebakker
Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
Replies: 212
Views: 94337

Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

Gotta love the name of the indices though: "Scientific Beta Diversified Multi-Strategy Factor Indices"
:)