Search found 31 matches

by happyspec
Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP is still valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 12109

Re: EU-PP is still valid?

Hello, if my calculations are correct, dividends and returns since begining of 2013 , Europe has: +8,4% Please confirm if it is right. Thank you. Hello Frugal, I calculated the numbers from the beginning of 2014 as this is year in question. For my portfolio the performance until now is around 7 % s...
by happyspec
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP is still valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 12109

Re: EU-PP is still valid?

Strange, I have the greatest year ever: (10% cash, 20 % Gold, 30 % Bonds, 40 % equities allocation): ETFS Gold Trust 5,44% iShares Euro Govt Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF 0,74% iShares Euro Govt Bond 15-30yr UCITS ETF 19,15% iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF DIST 14,95% SPDR Gold Trust 5,40% Totaal YTD 14,00% Co...
by happyspec
Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP is still valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 12109

Re: EU-PP is still valid?

Frugal, You have a European PP already, correct? I am curious how it has done so far this year. Year-to-date the US PP seems to be up about 7%. We are all slightly negative in the gold slice, but you should be up 5-6% in gold because of the falling value of the Euro relative to the dollar. I don't ...
by happyspec
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:48 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?
Replies: 33
Views: 20330

Re: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?

We live in a global economy; so I think you have to invest Global, despite the currency risk. So I have 30 % EU stock, 30 % US stock, 30 %  Asia, Pacific, Latin Amer. & 10 % national stocks. Or just take VT / VTI I agree with you that we live in a globalized economy. But I doubt that we therefo...
by happyspec
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?
Replies: 33
Views: 20330

Re: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?

Hi Jake, thanks for your advice which would be fine if I'd have a VP. The point is: I don't wanna have a VP which may sound strange. But I have been trading and speculating so long that I have enough from screening charts, filtering buy candidates, shorting wheat etc. If I had a VP I couldn't help ...
by happyspec
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:08 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?
Replies: 33
Views: 20330

Re: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?

We live in a global economy; so I think you have to invest Global, despite the currency risk. So I have 30 % EU stock, 30 % US stock, 30 %  Asia, Pacific, Latin Amer. & 10 % national stocks. Or just take VT / VTI I agree with you that we live in a globalized economy. But I doubt that we therefo...
by happyspec
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:17 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?
Replies: 33
Views: 20330

Re: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?

Hi Jake, thanks for your advice which would be fine if I'd have a VP. The point is: I don't wanna have a VP which may sound strange. But I have been trading and speculating so long that I have enough from screening charts, filtering buy candidates, shorting wheat etc. If I had a VP I couldn't help b...
by happyspec
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?
Replies: 33
Views: 20330

European PP: Investing in U.S. stocks too?

Hi dear all, ah you Americans, I envy you. As to investing you are the lucky ones. Got the world's biggest financial markets, the longest investment tradition and people who are willing to take risks. For Germans things are quite different. Born in a country of savers, insurance buyers and risk avoi...
by happyspec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Should €-Investors hedge Gold against $?
Replies: 4
Views: 3676

Re: Should €-Investors hedge Gold against $?

You should be buying physical gold. Not ETFs, and especially not some hedged ETFs. It's clear: nothing else than physical gold, there's no question about that for me. But you could hedge it with a currency option. I am skeptical towards non-US PP. HB stated clearly that during the crisis people run...
by happyspec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:46 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Should €-Investors hedge Gold against $?
Replies: 4
Views: 3676

Should €-Investors hedge Gold against $?

HB states in his books that investors should invest primarily in their own currency. So American investors should buy primarily U.S. stocks while Europeans should at least have a good exposure to the European market? How about gold? It trades in $ - should investors from other world regions hedge th...
by happyspec
Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 5th Economic Climate? Financial repression
Replies: 3
Views: 3706

Re: 5th Economic Climate? Financial repression

All asset classes move in lockstep, how can that be great for the PP? In the longterm that will not work  :o. But congratulation to all PP holders for holding course.  ::) As we have seen yesterday stocks, bonds and gold simultaneously shot through the roof as BB announced that there will be no tap...
by happyspec
Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25148

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

I sometimes think a basket of high-quality dividend-paying stocks would be the best way; however, nowadays, EVERYONE thinks dividend paying stocks are the way to go, so my instinct is to avoid them Christina, Your instinct is right ;). Stocks are REALLY volatile and the opposite of an "ultra-s...
by happyspec
Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25148

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

Combine those two and its easy to understand why looking at a portfolio every day (or even ofter?) is a sure fire way to be and remain anxious about it, even if you have solid gains on longer timeframes. I think it's getting really interesting here. We are talking about the damages to our bodies, s...
by happyspec
Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25148

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

Sorry to hear that, frommi  :'(. For which reasons did you quit? Doesn't a split in a PP and a VP work for you?
by happyspec
Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25148

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

The PP is a zen portfolio for me. It meets my needs with no stress, and lets me focus my financial efforts on what I can control rather than on what I cannot. Zen Portfolio! Now that's a nice and absolutely appropriate name for the PP – I fully agree with you, Tyler - OOOMMMM  ;D ;D. I also agree w...
by happyspec
Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?
Replies: 60
Views: 25148

Re: Investing in the PP - Why Do I Feel Like My Head is in the Sand?

What astonishes me in many discussions I find here is how many people doubt the effectiveness of the PP. For me the real value of the PP is that it ties specific asset classes to specific economic conditions - an assumption that I agree with because it's logical to me. Furthermore it describes any e...
by happyspec
Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:28 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Setting up the stock part of the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 7242

Setting up the stock part of the PP

I live in Germany and want to set up the prosperity part of the PP, i.e. stocks. I often read that, living in the strongest country of the EU, one could get by by buying a DAX-ETF. I'm not sure if an investment in only 30 stocks would be enough to give me the calmness that should come with the PP. I...
by happyspec
Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book
Replies: 43
Views: 34066

Re: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book

In the long run, it actually does not matter where the money went. Wherever it went, it has caused misallocation of resources, which cannot be remedied due to the continued interference in the market. You are right, misallocation of capital is the name of the game in a non-free-market-economy. Sad ...
by happyspec
Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book
Replies: 43
Views: 34066

Re: A change of heart about the PP after reading another Harry book

At the moment I'm reading Harry's book "Why government doesn't work". And as much as I like the intellectual clarity of Murray Rothbard, I'm always hooked by the practical approach that Harry had to things. This goes as well for his book "how to find freedom" which boils down to ...
by happyspec
Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad
Replies: 399
Views: 129663

Re: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad

I don't like anything that I consider subject to great risk at the hands of obvious lunatics such as the Federal Reserve. That eliminates all US-based securities. I for my part consider the Austrian economcic Theory - especially von Mises and Rothbard - as the work of the most enlightening economis...
by happyspec
Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad
Replies: 399
Views: 129663

Re: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad

I'm not sure I follow your logic, Libertarian666. Are you saying that without Fed interference, interest rates would be much higher? Yes, of course. They are the only purchasers of T-Bonds. What happens when the only purchasers of anything stop purchasing? The price will go... down. This isn't rock...
by happyspec
Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad
Replies: 399
Views: 129663

Re: Not Even Harry Browne Thought It Was Going To Be This Bad

Also, if rates rise, we have 25% of our money in an short-term bonds--an asset type that quickly adjusts to rising rates and will give us nice fat interest payments. Almost as if it was all planned out that way…  ;) in this discussion the arguments that have the most value in my humble opinion are ...
by happyspec
Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Goldmoney etc.
Replies: 7
Views: 4956

Re: Goldmoney etc.

does this mean you have 80% of portfolio in the German financial system / geography? yes it does. I thought about putting 12.5% of stocks (e.g. 50%) in europe and U.S. as well as half of the bond portion to U.S. In this case and with gold around 40 % of PP would be outside Germany itself. May I ask...
by happyspec
Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 125883

Re: PP investors--stay the course

The PP is a fine asset allocation, as long as cash interest rates hold up with inflation and longterm-bonds deliver interest rates above inflation. From 1970-2009 this was the case. From 1940-1970 this was not the case and therefore the PP delivered only <1% real returns. You can now argue that we ...
by happyspec
Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:05 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1730907

Re: The GOLD scream room

For all those who are losing their nerves about the continuing fall of the precious metals: The Gold industry (miners) is so bullish about the future that it's nearly hard to believe it. If you watch the data of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) you will see that the commercial hedgers...