Search found 241 matches

by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Covid and Bill Gates
Replies: 2
Views: 158

Covid and Bill Gates

This is an interesting article. It is widely known that Bill Gates' foundation is heavily invested in vaccine manufacturers. But does anyone know if he personally profits from vaccines, and how much he has personally invested in vaccine manufacturers? How Bill Gates and partners used their clout to ...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 15
Views: 549

Re: 75% stocks and 25% goldo

If we eliminate the worst dates where 4% failed which pretty much if you run from 1970 on that would , then a withdrawal rate for 60/40 would be about 6.50% .so not very stressed as far as outcomes go . The worst retirement years to have retired are 1907 ,1929, 1937 , 1965 and 1966 so starting in 1...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I’m 50 years old. The issue is I was cutting it close to the bone when my portfolio peaked around August 2021. So now it’s not even close. So it’s not just the dollar loss number. It’s the safe withdrawal math. It’s not working anymore for my lifestyle. If you are only 50 years old and been semi-re...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We are retired and don’t use a fixed inflation adjusted draw . We use bob clyatts 95/5 . It uses actual balances . Each year we get the higher of 4% of the actual balance or 5% less then we took the prior year if it is a down year . Which ever is higher . Firecalc has a tab for using 95/5 Jason, Di...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 15
Views: 549

Re: 75% stocks and 25% gold

Has a 75% total stock market and 25% gold portfolio been discussed? How do the numbers look? I played with it in portfoliovisualizer and it seems pretty good. Seems like it's a helluva lot safer than 100% stocks. Because of the gold, you're covered in a nuclear war, hyperinflation, or other SHTF sc...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 15
Views: 549

75% stocks and 25% gold

Has a 75% total stock market and 25% gold portfolio been discussed? How do the numbers look? I played with it in portfoliovisualizer and it seems pretty good. Seems like it's a helluva lot safer than 100% stocks. Because of the gold, you're covered in a nuclear war, hyperinflation, or other SHTF sce...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day. If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022. I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining. But what I currently am fin...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...
by jason
Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Thus far it seems obvious that the prevailing economic environment is " tight money" and all the PP assets appear to be performing as HB suggested they would in such an environment... poorly. His suggestion that the "tight money" environment is self limiting and usually shifts to a different enviro...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Data wise, and academically there is zero proof gold provides anything more than the equivalent allocation in bonds...sometimes more, most of the time less. The only thing you can say is gold always is more volatile than bonds. Whether one includes or excludes the 1970s for US-based gold returns is...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There should be no surprise there if you did your homework before investing. Things "may" equalize if the bear stock market is bad enough but...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 2606

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 3637

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Kevin K. wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:38 am
If it's any consolation:

https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios
Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :(