Search found 234 matches

by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 209
Views: 13505

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 209
Views: 13505

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 209
Views: 13505

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day. If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022. I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining. But what I currently am fin...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...
by jason
Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Thus far it seems obvious that the prevailing economic environment is " tight money" and all the PP assets appear to be performing as HB suggested they would in such an environment... poorly. His suggestion that the "tight money" environment is self limiting and usually shifts to a different enviro...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Data wise, and academically there is zero proof gold provides anything more than the equivalent allocation in bonds...sometimes more, most of the time less. The only thing you can say is gold always is more volatile than bonds. Whether one includes or excludes the 1970s for US-based gold returns is...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

If it's any consolation: https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :( There should be no surprise there if you did your homework before investing. Things "may" equalize if the bear stock market is bad enough but...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

fucking idiots Gave me a laugh at least. What is your recommended portfolio allocation? No Gold or LTT’s. I can’t think of a worse portfolio to hold than this one for the last decade plus. All a bunch of garbage. It has proven its worthlessness time after time. If no gold or LTTs, what do you hold?...
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2811

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Kevin K. wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:38 am
If it's any consolation:

https://portfolioslab.com/lazy-portfolios
Makes me feel better until I look at the 10 year returns, where the PP is third to last :(
by jason
Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

But if not, HB had some insight which applied to this. Namely that you can't count on markets to repeat the reactions of past history, because people adapt. The gold market has changed so much over the past two decades that I don't think you can predict how it will behave. Agreed 100 percent. How h...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Gold is completely useless. Unexpected inflation tops 8% and we are down 7% + inflation over the course of a year. I really do pity those still invested in the PP. What more do you need to see before you dump it? Well, first of all, as someone else recently posted, the dollar has gained 14% YTD and...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

But if not, HB had some insight which applied to this. Namely that you can't count on markets to repeat the reactions of past history, because people adapt. The gold market has changed so much over the past two decades that I don't think you can predict how it will behave. Agreed 100 percent. How h...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:30 pm
I gave up trying to figure it out. The whole market tries to figure it out, and that gives us the price. That sounds more negative than I mean it to be. :)
Unless the price is rigged as GATA claims.
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 11:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

Doesn't the strength of the US dollar factor into all of this? I recently read that it's up 14% in 2022 and is at its highest level in 20 years compared to other currencies. Yes, strong dollar was mentioned as well, but experts were saying that gold has to compete with currency so as long as bond y...
by jason
Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1378

Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

So I was doing some research today on why gold hasn't been going up lately. The recurring theme I saw was that experts think that in an environment where there is high inflation and interest rates are steadily rising and are expected to rise further, gold does not do well. But after the Fed stops ra...
by jason
Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best passive real estate investments?
Replies: 1
Views: 178

Best passive real estate investments?

I'm looking to do passive investment in real estate that involves lower-end residential housing/apartment buildings. I'm looking for "lower-end" because it's supposedly more recession-proof than higher-end housing. What are the historical yields (total return and dividends/cash flow) for this type o...