Search found 201 matches

by jason
Mon May 23, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 338

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the g...
by jason
Fri May 20, 2022 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 338

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

While it uses simple annual rebalancing rather than bands, Portfolio Charts has the data coverage you're looking for (back to 1970). Here's the dedicated Permanent Portfolio page: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/permanent-portfolio/ And here's a tool where you can adjust the percentages of th...
by jason
Fri May 20, 2022 9:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 338

Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I used to use peaktotrough.com all the time for backtesting. Since that website shut down quite a while ago, I haven't been able to find a good replacement. Portfoliovisualizer and other websites I have found do not go all the way back to the Nixon shock, around August 15, 1971, the date that the go...
by jason
Wed May 18, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without cash
Replies: 2
Views: 168

Re: PP without cash

If I were going cashless, personally this would be my approach. 1. 50/50 Stock/Bonds as per Ben Graham 2. Add Gold for minimum volatility as per BelangP Already had the allocations memorised for the Pacific Peso (AUD) 8) Edit: Results for USA 24% Gold, 38% TSM, 38% LTT Thanks. How did you come up w...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without cash
Replies: 2
Views: 168

PP without cash

I think I've seen the PP without cash called the "juiced Permanent Portfolio." 1/3rd stock market, 1/3 gold, 1/3 LTTs. Historically is appears to have outperformed the PP by 1%+ CAGR. And the volatility and drawdowns aren't too bad. Have others here considered this? Is there already a discussion thr...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 612

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

The scenario playing out now is one that I envisioned and was one of the reasons why I chose the PP in the first place. What is playing out now is high inflation, rising interest rates, with a potentially weakening economy. This was the exact scenario that I thought gold was supposed to bail us out ...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 3:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 612

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I don't know of another asset allocation that would be less stressful. I still think the PP is the sweet spot for risk/reward for an investment account where you really can't afford to lose money, which is my situation. Did Harry Browne say that for people in retirement taking cash out of the PP ea...
by jason
Sat May 14, 2022 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 612

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I don't know of another asset allocation that would be less stressful. I still think the PP is the sweet spot for risk/reward for an investment account where you really can't afford to lose money, which is my situation. Did Harry Browne say that for people in retirement taking cash out of the PP eac...
by jason
Thu May 12, 2022 4:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 612

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Look to see if you can harvest any tax losses. If yes, keep the results in cash and sell something else for cash equal to your losses [no capital gain tax]. I can't see your portfolio so this may or may not be helpful. Good Luck. I have no losses to harvest. I have to sell gold and stocks, both of ...
by jason
Thu May 12, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 612

Rebalancing advice needed

So I am semi-retired and mostly living off of my PP which is in a taxable account because I sold my business a few years ago. I started another business but the income is small so I mainly live off of my PP. I rebalanced it at one point back to 25/25/25/25 years ago, but having been draining the cas...
by jason
Thu Apr 07, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3679

Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I've been doing the HBPP for almost 9 years and I've done decently well with it. It's been a bit frustrating to see inflation soaring lately and my portfolio basically going nowhere or dropping a bit. And it's been especially frustrating to watch Treasuries drop a lot and it seems the stage is set f...
by jason
Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Replies: 2
Views: 305

When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?

CAGR of the PP from Jan 2021 through now is around 1%. Inflation during that time frame was over 8%, so we are about 11% short of the inflation plus 4% that the PP usually makes. I know it takes time to work itself out. Historically, has there been a delay between when inflation kicks in and the PP ...
by jason
Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?

Maybe this has been discussed in the past. In the off chance there is a global thermonuclear war, where is the best place for one's gold to be? I'm guessing my PHYS shares aren't it. But I worry about storing with a little company like GoldMoney, etc. What company, storage method, and storage locat...
by jason
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Safest place to store gold in a nuclear war?

Maybe this has been discussed in the past. In the off chance there is a global thermonuclear war, where is the best place for one's gold to be? I'm guessing my PHYS shares aren't it. But I worry about storing with a little company like GoldMoney, etc. What company, storage method, and storage locati...
by jason
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Anyone investing in farmland?
Replies: 6
Views: 1166

Anyone investing in farmland?

I've read in multiple places that the smart money is investing in farmland. It's supposedly fairly recession-proof and inflation-proof. Apparently, Bill Gates is the biggest owner of farmland in the US. I just bought some shares of the REIT Gladstone Land Corporation (ticker LAND) which is apparentl...
by jason
Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Importing Treasury prices to Google Doc
Replies: 0
Views: 1762

Importing Treasury prices to Google Doc

Has anyone figured out a way to automatically import Treasury prices into a Google Doc. I still have to manually copy and paste from the WSJ price page every day.
by jason
Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Great Reset and PP
Replies: 2
Views: 1006

Great Reset and PP

So the establishment has been talking about the need for a Great Reset. And now this appears in the Financial Times. They are talking about canceling all government debt worldwide. That means that treasuries would go to zero, right? Could this really happen? Time for a great reset of the financial s...
by jason
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fully Paid Lending Program?
Replies: 0
Views: 736

Fully Paid Lending Program?

So I just got an email from Fidelity encouraging me to sign up for their fully paid lending program, where I can lend out my securities and earn money. Is anyone familiar with this program? It appears programs like this are widely offered by various brokerage firms: https://www.fidelity.com/trading/...
by jason
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What will happen to the PP if gold can be made in a lab?
Replies: 5
Views: 831

Re: What will happen to the PP if gold can be made in a lab?

pp4me wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:42 pm
Wouldn't that make it even more like what we think of as "money" nowadays?
LOL. I guess we can keep the gold and dump cash since they will essentially be the same. ;D
by jason
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What will happen to the PP if gold can be made in a lab?
Replies: 5
Views: 831

What will happen to the PP if gold can be made in a lab?

Gold has been created in a lab by scientists, but it's apparently currently extremely expensive to make. Here is an article about it from 2014: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-lead-can-be-turned-into-gold/ Has anyone else wondered what would happen to the PP if someone fig...
by jason
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HBPP 4x25 results, please.
Replies: 11
Views: 2420

Re: HBPP 4x25 results, please.

The one negative about portfoliovisualizer is that if you back test the PP, it says it only goes back to January, 1978. It says it doesn't have long term treasury data before that. So you can't back test all the way back to August of 1971, when the US went off the gold standard. I really miss peakto...
by jason
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cheating on re-balancing in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 3036

Re: Cheating on re-balancing in a taxable account

You're definitely not being foolish. Being thoughtful about taxes is always a good thing. That said, I think it's important to put together a plan for how you eventually will rebalance in the most tax-efficient way possible. Maybe that's to do some tax-loss-harvesting now to offset future gains. Ma...
by jason
Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cheating on re-balancing in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 3036

Cheating on re-balancing in a taxable account

Hi everyone, I've been doing the HBPP for 7 years and it has been doing great lately, obviously. My cash was at a little over 15%, but with the recent movements, my cash is now around 12.5%. Technically, I am supposed to re-balance now to 25/25/25/25. My PP is in a taxable account, and has a lot of ...
by jason
Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Google Sheets hasn't pulled PHYS price for a long time
Replies: 12
Views: 4325

Re: Google Sheets hasn't pulled PHYS price for a long time

For whatever reason, NYSEARCA:PHYS just stopped working so I changed it back to PHYS and now it's working. So google must have changed it yet again.
by jason
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best resource for PP backtesting?
Replies: 17
Views: 11416

Re: Best resource for PP backtesting?

I really miss Peaktotrough. Is anyone using a tool for PP backtesting that does the 15/35 re-balancing bands?