Search found 248 matches

by jason
Fri Dec 08, 2023 4:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Leverages ETN strategies
Replies: 5
Views: 10253

Leverages ETN strategies

I am fascinated by leveraged ETNs such as UPRO, a 3X S&P ETN, and a new one, XXXX, a 4X S&P ETN. These supposedly aren't great long term because of "decay" which happens if the underlying index is moving up and down and essentially going sideways. If it goes up 10% one day, then the 4X will make it ...
by jason
Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 22317

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

Three things/issues to be aware of. One, why replace 25-year Treasuries with 30-year? I presume it is because you would rather buy brand new 30-year Treasuries at issue rather than buy (in the secondary market since the U.S. doesn't issue new 25-year maturity Treasuries) a 30-year Treasury that has...
by jason
Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 22317

tax-loss harvesting question

I have some Treasuries I bought 5 years ago in a taxable account, so they are 25 years out right now. I've taken a big hit on the value of the Treasuries. Should I sell them now and immediately replace them with 30 year Treasuries so I can lock in the long term loss and use that loss to offset futur...
by jason
Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:28 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity
Replies: 1
Views: 5022

Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity

I have a substantial unrealized long term capital loss on my Treasuries I'm holding at Fidelity. I was thinking about selling them and immediately buying different Treasuries so I can lock in the loss and use that loss to offset any future long term capital gains. Fidelity says they charge zero comm...
by jason
Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has gone from bad to worse. Down -21.3% YTD. Worst performance since 1931. Ugh. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/download/file.php?id=2880 1974 was a deeper drawdown in real terms for 60/40 that current/recent https://i.postimg.cc/7PRWm08j/drawdows-real.png ...
by jason
Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:24 am
I think more representative is a total bond fund as far as what most use or even how a balanced fund would look
I agree. I think BND is more in line with what most people doing a 60/40 have.
by jason
Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:36 am
Portfolio visualizer shows 60% spy 40% bnd down 20% in 2008
That makes sense since BND includes a lot of non-Treasuries like corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities. The chart used only 10 year Treasuries as bonds.
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Covid and Bill Gates
Replies: 2
Views: 682

Covid and Bill Gates

This is an interesting article. It is widely known that Bill Gates' foundation is heavily invested in vaccine manufacturers. But does anyone know if he personally profits from vaccines, and how much he has personally invested in vaccine manufacturers? How Bill Gates and partners used their clout to ...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 16
Views: 3318

Re: 75% stocks and 25% goldo

If we eliminate the worst dates where 4% failed which pretty much if you run from 1970 on that would , then a withdrawal rate for 60/40 would be about 6.50% .so not very stressed as far as outcomes go . The worst retirement years to have retired are 1907 ,1929, 1937 , 1965 and 1966 so starting in 1...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I’m 50 years old. The issue is I was cutting it close to the bone when my portfolio peaked around August 2021. So now it’s not even close. So it’s not just the dollar loss number. It’s the safe withdrawal math. It’s not working anymore for my lifestyle. If you are only 50 years old and been semi-re...
by jason
Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We are retired and don’t use a fixed inflation adjusted draw . We use bob clyatts 95/5 . It uses actual balances . Each year we get the higher of 4% of the actual balance or 5% less then we took the prior year if it is a down year . Which ever is higher . Firecalc has a tab for using 95/5 Jason, Di...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 16
Views: 3318

Re: 75% stocks and 25% gold

Has a 75% total stock market and 25% gold portfolio been discussed? How do the numbers look? I played with it in portfoliovisualizer and it seems pretty good. Seems like it's a helluva lot safer than 100% stocks. Because of the gold, you're covered in a nuclear war, hyperinflation, or other SHTF sc...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 16
Views: 3318

75% stocks and 25% gold

Has a 75% total stock market and 25% gold portfolio been discussed? How do the numbers look? I played with it in portfoliovisualizer and it seems pretty good. Seems like it's a helluva lot safer than 100% stocks. Because of the gold, you're covered in a nuclear war, hyperinflation, or other SHTF sce...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140737

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Checking in w/ everyone - How are we feeling w/ TLT tanking big time? Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk o...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day. If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022. I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining. But what I currently am fin...
by jason
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present. Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D Also from Portfolio Charts... Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

What were you expecting for a real return? I was hoping to get the historical average PP real return of 4%. Since June 2013, when I started the PP, the CAGR has been around 5%, so there's no way the real return would be close to 4%, right? From this I get a cumulate rate of inflation of 27.1% over ...
by jason
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I would start with you…what are your goals? What do you want out of a portfolio? What is your temperament like? Are you still investing or are you in the spend down phase of life? Are you patient or impatient. If the latter, what can you do to incorporate that as a personal reality? I am semi-retir...
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33564

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be retu...