Search found 257 matches

by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 104708

Re: 2023 Returns

13.0% for me in 2023. I run a standard 4x4 PP, and I caught the falling LTT knife a few times during the year. With inflation at 3.1% (Nov-Nov), that's about 9.9% real. Sounds great, but for 2022 I was down 18.8% real, so I'm down about 10.8% real (0.812 x 1.099) over two years. I've now been runnin...
by Pet Hog
Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 98259

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

My experience with holding gold is that, in the short term, it's a noncorrelated asset (meaning its not correlated with anything, including current affairs or inflation) and that it tends to move in cycles/trends that are evident over maybe a decade. Long term, it mirrors inflation -- more precisely...
by Pet Hog
Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 21484

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

I added to my bond holdings yesterday at Fidelity. The bid-ask spreads were very narrow and stock-like. I don't think we need to worry anymore about minimizing trading in the secondary bond market to avoid high spreads -- at Fidelity at least. Also, the Fidelity bond trading platform has been modern...
by Pet Hog
Tue Oct 17, 2023 3:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19157

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

Today "very soon" arrived. I bit the bullet and partially rebalanced from gold/cash to LLTs. The bonds I bought at $1000 in February 2021 (now 27.5 years remaining) are currently worth less than $600 each (40% loss, wow). This morning the yield on the 30-year treasury bond was above 4.4%. My LTTs h...
by Pet Hog
Tue Oct 10, 2023 12:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 21484

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

Sounds like a great idea, Jason. As long as 25- and 30-year treasuries aren't considered "substantially identical" for the wash sale rule -- and I don't see why they would be. If you're worried about the value of the bonds going lower still, maybe just sell half now and the rest next year or later t...
by Pet Hog
Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19157

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

As such, like Smith1776 suggested, I'm likely to rebalance into LTTs very soon . I think the downside risk is low and the potential upside is huge. Please let us know when that day of "very soon" arrives for you! It may push me to similar action. Thanks! Today "very soon" arrived. I bit the bullet ...
by Pet Hog
Thu Aug 17, 2023 3:14 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19157

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

As such, like Smith1776 suggested, I'm likely to rebalance into LTTs very soon . I think the downside risk is low and the potential upside is huge. Please let us know when that day of "very soon" arrives for you! It may push me to similar action. Thanks! Today "very soon" arrived. I bit the bullet ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 28932

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

That is not what the article did in what I copied here (above)? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=13057#p250882 That's a "real real-world" example! Roth's "annual cash flow" entries I suspect include all dividends and maturing principal? Mine is hypothetical, considering...
by Pet Hog
Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 28932

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

One way to understand this investment approach is to consider the SWR of cash under a mattress. If you have $100,000, you could withdraw $3333 each year for 30 years. That's a 3.33% SWR, but obviously affected by inflation. The SWR would also be 3.33% when invested in TIPS with no real return, only ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 28932

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

It took me a while to understand why this approach works. It sounds more complicated than it really is. I crunched some numbers to convince myself. Perhaps this spreadsheet will be of use to others. Using the example of $4000 annual income from a $100,000 investment -- therefore a 4% safe withdrawal...
by Pet Hog
Tue Aug 08, 2023 10:18 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Why I Stopped Buying I-Bonds (For now)
Replies: 12
Views: 5086

Re: Why I Stopped Buying I-Bonds (For now)

When I listen to Jerome Powell speak, it seems that the number he is really focussed on is core inflation which still stood at 4.83% through June. Too bad our I Bonds aren't priced based on core inflation -- or headline, whichever is the higher! Personally, I'd be delighted if the Fed keeps raising...
by Pet Hog
Mon Aug 07, 2023 10:42 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Why I Stopped Buying I-Bonds (For now)
Replies: 12
Views: 5086

Re: Why I Stopped Buying I-Bonds (For now)

inflation shows no sign of dropping below 4% any time soon. jhogue, congratulations on the house deal, but is this a typo? CPI-U is currently at 3.0% and has been dropping precipitously. With inflation seemingly under control and unemployment at 3.5%, one wonders what motivation the Fed has for any...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jul 07, 2023 3:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19157

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

I'm in the same boat as Maddy. I bought 30-year treasuries in February 2021, yielding 1.875%. Today, each $1000 bond is worth about $640, and that $18.75 annual coupon isn't helping very much to make up for the 36% decline. Nevertheless, if I hold to maturity I'll get the $360 back over 27.5 years, ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Jul 04, 2023 5:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETF Placement
Replies: 9
Views: 3387

Re: Gold ETF Placement

Not sure if it's well known around these parts, but capital gains from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) are taxed at the capital gains rate (0, 15, or 20%) if an extra form is filed with your tax return. See here . The expense ratio is a bit high at 0.41%, but the savings could be significant w...
by Pet Hog
Fri May 05, 2023 11:33 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14222

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

My notes from the Vanguard phone call. 1) Auctions are held with this frequency for the following length T-Bills: Once a week - one month, two months, three months, four months, six months Once a month - one year, two years, three year, five years, seven years, ten years Once a quarter - 20 years, ...
by Pet Hog
Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 32334

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

Once inflation gets below 2%, that's the time to back up the truck for LT bonds. I think this reasoning would make sense if the yield curve wasn't so inverted. I suspect that by the time inflation is below 2% the yield on the 30-year will be much closer to 2% itself. Today it's at 3.55%. At the end...
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 21265

Re: 2022 Returns

For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck. Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested): VTI -19.52% TLT -31.23% IAU -0.63% SHY -3.88% ----------- 4x25 PP: -13.82% (-2...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 166182

Re: What's going on with silver?

Pet Hog wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.
Pet Hog wrote:
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am
Still, I'm waiting for 100:1.
I wish I had acted on gold and silver when I made those two posts. They both signaled the top. Next time I post that I'm waiting for 100:1, slap me down!
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 32334

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

I'm hoping that the greater-than-4% yields for the six-month to seven-year treasuries are going to give the PP a solid basis for the next few years. I'm hoping to lock in some decent yields. I don't know about the 30-year, but my gut says 4% will be about as high as it goes before the economy suffer...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Breitbart logo on this website url
Replies: 5
Views: 1460

Re: Breitbart logo on this website url

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:52 pm
I don’t know what you call the symbol that appears next to the site name...
For your edification, and mine, it's called a favicon.
by Pet Hog
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 6
Views: 2917

Re: PHYS selling at a premium

Right now PHYS is trading at a discount to NAV: -2.03%. See here at the Sprott website. Since about June 2018 it has been trading in the range from 0% to -2%, so it looks like it might be at a low.
by Pet Hog
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 166182

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold-to-silver ratio at around 93:1 today. 94:1 if you use the numbers from yahoo (currently $1750.10/$18.58). After my previous post it hovered around this level for a couple of weeks before dropping to 87-ish. Would have been about a 6% gain. Still, I'm waiting for 100:1. If we're going to have re...
by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What happened to Sophie?
Replies: 9
Views: 1504

Re: What happened to Sophie?

Glad to know you're well, Sophie. For me, you've always been one of the most thoughtful and eloquent posters, and your contributions have been missed.
by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:42 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 20
Views: 7177

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

... Treasury Direct is now accepting certification by notary public. That would be great. I've been having the same problems as GT's wife. The last time I tried to get my identification verified (in April), my credit union, and several big-name banks where I have accounts, refused to stamp the form...
by Pet Hog
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 166182

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold-to-silver ratio in the 90s again, first time in two years. About 92:1 right now. I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-r ... ver/3year/