Search found 235 matches

by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What happened to Sophie?
Replies: 10
Views: 307

Re: What happened to Sophie?

Glad to know you're well, Sophie. For me, you've always been one of the most thoughtful and eloquent posters, and your contributions have been missed.
by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:42 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 17
Views: 2190

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

... Treasury Direct is now accepting certification by notary public. That would be great. I've been having the same problems as GT's wife. The last time I tried to get my identification verified (in April), my credit union, and several big-name banks where I have accounts, refused to stamp the form...
by Pet Hog
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 134023

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold-to-silver ratio in the 90s again, first time in two years. About 92:1 right now. I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-r ... ver/3year/
by Pet Hog
Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 5
Views: 933

Re: PHYS selling at a premium

How are you tracking current premium/discount to NAV for PHYS? I was using that Sprott URL. And also checking the price ratio of IAU to PHYS. It's rare to see PHYS trade at a premium to NAV, but it was doing so consistently on Friday, not just a spike at closing. Because the discount has been avera...
by Pet Hog
Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 5
Views: 933

PHYS selling at a premium

PHYS is, at this minute, trading at a premium of +0.20%. It usually trades at a discount (2020 was the last year where it meaningfully traded for several weeks at a premium), so now might be a good time to get out of it if anyone has been thinking of going to a less expensive ETF or physical. Just a...
by Pet Hog
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 64
Views: 6820

Re: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio

But that 7.12% for six months is psychologically tempting! At this time, I see little likelihood that the new interest rate will be much different than the current 7.12%, but you never know until it happens. The new I-Bond rate will be set on May 1, using the CPI-U numbers from September 2021 (274....
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: It's all about China
Replies: 125
Views: 52160

Re: It's all about China

Its easy to get people off farms and into construction/office work. Not easy to get them to code <irony> I'm not so sure. As a wise man once said , "Anyone who can go down 300 to 3000 feet in a mine sure in hell can learn how to program as well. Give me a break. Anybody who can thrown coal into a f...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 273
Views: 28515

Re: Yay PP!

I, for one, enjoy reading mathjak's posts even if I don't always agree with them. I've learned from him and I hope that we have a big enough tent here not to drive him away. I agree with what you concisely stated above. I, too, like reading dissenting views on this forum. None of us knows the futur...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 5402

Re: 2022 PP predictions

Pet Hog wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal)
Just here to gloat about how my accurate my prediction was! (I reached -3% nominal today.)

Umm ... bodes well from here on in!
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 273
Views: 28515

Re: Yay PP!

Kitces looked into rebalancing . Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalancing-usually-reduces-long-term-returns-but-is-good-risk-management-anyway/...
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 14837

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

I agree, Kevin, this year looks daunting. Making around 12% nominal with the PP seems like an impossible joke.
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 14837

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Smith, sorry for your loss. I've never been in your situation, but I did receive a windfall once that doubled my PP and I recall the nervousness of placing what, at the time, seemed like huge trades. I have a few thoughts. One, think of your portfolio in terms of percentages, not dollars. The PP (fo...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 5402

2022 PP predictions

Putting these predictions out there for ridicule come 2023! Stocks: down (guessing -20%) LTTs: down (guessing -20%) Gold: up (guessing +25%) Cash: up (guessing +5%) ----- PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal) ----- Rationale: Pandemic -- over or ignored Inflation -- high because of short supply S...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2021 PP Returns
Replies: 30
Views: 3487

Re: 2021 PP Returns

My 2021 data point. I'm a traditionalist, 4x25.

Nominal return: 5.14%
Inflation: 6.81%
Real return: -1.67%

Damn that inflation!
by Pet Hog
Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k
Replies: 1
Views: 375

Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k

I recall (but can't find it) there being some discussion here, many moons ago, about all the jumping through hoops needed to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k. In the past I have mailed a check, deposited a check at a Fidelity branch, or ACH'd money to a Fidelity checking account then called...
by Pet Hog
Wed May 12, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Thoughts please: cancel culture and my book club
Replies: 23
Views: 2437

Re: Thoughts please: cancel culture and my book club

I suggest you two should be like William Thackeray and Makepeace.
by Pet Hog
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 16
Views: 11744

Re: Another solid January

Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change. VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33% TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63% GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22% SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02% PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79% A negative January -- ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 96
Views: 52682

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Sure, I think we're due for some dramatic market turbulence in the next couple of years, but there seems to be so much doom and gloom in the personal finance world these days that perhaps it's already factored in (i.e., if everyone thinks we're going to crash it's unlikely to happen). If I were to ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 49
Views: 40104

Re: DIY individual stock fund

jalanlong wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:57 pm
So did you ever give this a tryout?
No, not yet. Perhaps when/if I rebalance into stocks.
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 8299

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tax Day Pushed to June 15
Replies: 4
Views: 1491

Re: Tax Day Pushed to June 15

Looks like it's July 15 for filing. Even better!

Tweet from Mnuchin.
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine
Replies: 3
Views: 1392

Re: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine

I have read that there is a shortage of this compound that should be remedied by mid-April. If it is important to have this compound for the coronavirus outbreak, that's way too late. We can't wait for an FDA-approved laboratory to fix this shortage or a lot of people are going to die. Any organic ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs. real gold bugs
Replies: 30
Views: 6772

Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like. ;D Hmm, it never occurred to me earlier, but perhaps Mike was talking about the PP? "My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable." "How dare they challenge me with their somewhat pri...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 3398

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Just thinking out loud. Writing this stuff down to see if I can convince myself that there is any potential advantage. Perhaps I should consider of a more extreme example. There is a 21-year treasury (maturing 5/15/2041) with a 4.375% coupon, currently valued at $159.63. As a PP investor, I would ho...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 3398

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Are these held taxable or tax deferred? If taxable there is benefit to selling and realizing the gain as a long term cap gain and trading down to the lower yield (you may even be able to harvest some stock losses right now to help pay the tax bill). Now, you do alter your average maturity when you ...