From December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024 (adjusted closes from yahoo finance): VTI: +23.8% (from 234.08 to 289.81) TLT: -8.1% (from 94.98 to 87.33) IAU: +26.9% (from 39.03 to 49.51) SHY: +3.9% (from 78.89 to 81.98) PP nominal: +11.6% Inflation: +2.8% (Nov 2023 to Nov 2024) PP real: +8.8% A solid ...

What do you think? Would there be advantages to trying something like this, within certain bands, or is there is a reason or reasons why it should not be attempted? I've come to the conclusion that 4x25 is just a guide and that anything within the 35/15 bands (or your bands of choice) is a valid PP...

the estimated yield was just $75, matching the coupon Is it just something like you bought 11 bonds (each $1000 face value) for $10,000 (i.e., you bought at a discount, say for $900 each) with a coupon yield of 0.75%, so you get a coupon of $75 each year, and ultimately the bonds will mature for $1...

13.0% for me in 2023. I run a standard 4x4 PP, and I caught the falling LTT knife a few times during the year. With inflation at 3.1% (Nov-Nov), that's about 9.9% real. Sounds great, but for 2022 I was down 18.8% real, so I'm down about 10.8% real (0.812 x 1.099) over two years. I've now been runnin...

My experience with holding gold is that, in the short term, it's a noncorrelated asset (meaning its not correlated with anything, including current affairs or inflation) and that it tends to move in cycles/trends that are evident over maybe a decade. Long term, it mirrors inflation -- more precisely...

I added to my bond holdings yesterday at Fidelity. The bid-ask spreads were very narrow and stock-like. I don't think we need to worry anymore about minimizing trading in the secondary bond market to avoid high spreads -- at Fidelity at least. Also, the Fidelity bond trading platform has been modern...

Today "very soon" arrived. I bit the bullet and partially rebalanced from gold/cash to LLTs. The bonds I bought at $1000 in February 2021 (now 27.5 years remaining) are currently worth less than $600 each (40% loss, wow). This morning the yield on the 30-year treasury bond was above 4.4%....

Sounds like a great idea, Jason. As long as 25- and 30-year treasuries aren't considered "substantially identical" for the wash sale rule -- and I don't see why they would be. If you're worried about the value of the bonds going lower still, maybe just sell half now and the rest next year ...

As such, like Smith1776 suggested, I'm likely to rebalance into LTTs very soon . I think the downside risk is low and the potential upside is huge. Please let us know when that day of "very soon" arrives for you! It may push me to similar action. Thanks! Today "very soon" arrive...

As such, like Smith1776 suggested, I'm likely to rebalance into LTTs very soon . I think the downside risk is low and the potential upside is huge. Please let us know when that day of "very soon" arrives for you! It may push me to similar action. Thanks! Today "very soon" arrive...

That is not what the article did in what I copied here (above)? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=13057#p250882 That's a "real real-world" example! Roth's "annual cash flow" entries I suspect include all dividends and maturing principal? Mine is h...

One way to understand this investment approach is to consider the SWR of cash under a mattress. If you have $100,000, you could withdraw $3333 each year for 30 years. That's a 3.33% SWR, but obviously affected by inflation. The SWR would also be 3.33% when invested in TIPS with no real return, only ...

It took me a while to understand why this approach works. It sounds more complicated than it really is. I crunched some numbers to convince myself. Perhaps this spreadsheet will be of use to others. Using the example of $4000 annual income from a $100,000 investment -- therefore a 4% safe withdrawal...

When I listen to Jerome Powell speak, it seems that the number he is really focussed on is core inflation which still stood at 4.83% through June. Too bad our I Bonds aren't priced based on core inflation -- or headline, whichever is the higher! Personally, I'd be delighted if the Fed keeps raising...

inflation shows no sign of dropping below 4% any time soon. jhogue, congratulations on the house deal, but is this a typo? CPI-U is currently at 3.0% and has been dropping precipitously. With inflation seemingly under control and unemployment at 3.5%, one wonders what motivation the Fed has for any...

I'm in the same boat as Maddy. I bought 30-year treasuries in February 2021, yielding 1.875%. Today, each $1000 bond is worth about $640, and that $18.75 annual coupon isn't helping very much to make up for the 36% decline. Nevertheless, if I hold to maturity I'll get the $360 back over 27.5 years, ...

Not sure if it's well known around these parts, but capital gains from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) are taxed at the capital gains rate (0, 15, or 20%) if an extra form is filed with your tax return. See here . The expense ratio is a bit high at 0.41%, but the savings could be significant w...

My notes from the Vanguard phone call. 1) Auctions are held with this frequency for the following length T-Bills: Once a week - one month, two months, three months, four months, six months Once a month - one year, two years, three year, five years, seven years, ten years Once a quarter - 20 years, ...

Once inflation gets below 2%, that's the time to back up the truck for LT bonds. I think this reasoning would make sense if the yield curve wasn't so inverted. I suspect that by the time inflation is below 2% the yield on the 30-year will be much closer to 2% itself. Today it's at 3.55%. At the end...

For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck. Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested): VTI -19.52% TLT -31.23% IAU -0.63% SHY -3.88% ----------- 4x25 PP: -13.82% (-2...

Pet Hog wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.

Pet Hog wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am Still, I'm waiting for 100:1.

I wish I had acted on gold and silver when I made those two posts. They both signaled the top. Next time I post that I'm waiting for 100:1, slap me down!

I'm hoping that the greater-than-4% yields for the six-month to seven-year treasuries are going to give the PP a solid basis for the next few years. I'm hoping to lock in some decent yields. I don't know about the 30-year, but my gut says 4% will be about as high as it goes before the economy suffer...

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:52 pm I don’t know what you call the symbol that appears next to the site name...

For your edification, and mine, it's called a favicon.

Right now PHYS is trading at a discount to NAV: -2.03%. See here at the Sprott website. Since about June 2018 it has been trading in the range from 0% to -2%, so it looks like it might be at a low.

Gold-to-silver ratio at around 93:1 today. 94:1 if you use the numbers from yahoo (currently $1750.10/$18.58). After my previous post it hovered around this level for a couple of weeks before dropping to 87-ish. Would have been about a 6% gain. Still, I'm waiting for 100:1. If we're going to have re...