Search found 219 matches

by Pet Hog
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 16
Views: 8463

Re: Another solid January

Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change. VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33% TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63% GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22% SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02% PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79% A negative January -- ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 96
Views: 39802

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Sure, I think we're due for some dramatic market turbulence in the next couple of years, but there seems to be so much doom and gloom in the personal finance world these days that perhaps it's already factored in (i.e., if everyone thinks we're going to crash it's unlikely to happen). If I were to ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 49
Views: 29487

Re: DIY individual stock fund

jalanlong wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:57 pm
So did you ever give this a tryout?
No, not yet. Perhaps when/if I rebalance into stocks.
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 4728

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tax Day Pushed to June 15
Replies: 4
Views: 662

Re: Tax Day Pushed to June 15

Looks like it's July 15 for filing. Even better!

Tweet from Mnuchin.
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine
Replies: 3
Views: 641

Re: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine

I have read that there is a shortage of this compound that should be remedied by mid-April. If it is important to have this compound for the coronavirus outbreak, that's way too late. We can't wait for an FDA-approved laboratory to fix this shortage or a lot of people are going to die. Any organic ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs. real gold bugs
Replies: 30
Views: 3200

Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like. ;D Hmm, it never occurred to me earlier, but perhaps Mike was talking about the PP? "My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable." "How dare they challenge me with their somewhat pri...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 1934

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Just thinking out loud. Writing this stuff down to see if I can convince myself that there is any potential advantage. Perhaps I should consider of a more extreme example. There is a 21-year treasury (maturing 5/15/2041) with a 4.375% coupon, currently valued at $159.63. As a PP investor, I would ho...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 1934

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Are these held taxable or tax deferred? If taxable there is benefit to selling and realizing the gain as a long term cap gain and trading down to the lower yield (you may even be able to harvest some stock losses right now to help pay the tax bill). Now, you do alter your average maturity when you ...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 59
Views: 9448

Re: Negative interest rates

If that's the case do you believe this theory is correct? Hal, that's a beautiful and informative chart. Yes, I would have to say I do believe in the theory, whatever it might be! (I suspect it says that as money pours into an economy it goes to higher levels of the double-pyramid -- with riskier a...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 1934

Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

I have a question that you all might have some idea about. I own two lots of LTTs, with 27 and 28 years left to maturity. I bought them with yields of about 3%. Each price today is over $140. Both gained around 7% on Friday. Crazy! Let's say I bought $10,000 of bonds. Now they're worth $14,000. If I...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 59
Views: 9448

Re: Negative interest rates

From a quick google search I found that, according to this chart , there are $1.46 trillion US dollars in circulation (paper money, greenbacks). According to this PBS article , the population of the US is 331 million. That means each person could hold, on average, about $4400 in cash. What that tell...
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 4728

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the d...
by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 16
Views: 8463

Re: Another solid January

Don wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
pugchief wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 16
Views: 8463

Re: Another solid January

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 4728

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

January appears to be the strongest month of the year. Image from this article.

Image
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 15
Views: 4728

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Well spotted! With no obvious end-of-day spike relative to other gold ETFs, perhaps we are finally truly getting into premium territory. I'll probably sell if the premium gets above 1%, but will keep an eye on the price and not rush it. It's not been above 1% since November 2016. Thanks for the head...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum / Team?
Replies: 18
Views: 2978

Re: Forum / Team?

Pointedstick wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 am
You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society.
I imagine Pointedstick saying this line in this style.
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New all-time high
Replies: 32
Views: 10940

Re: New all-time high

Sure, Vinny -- it does seem like a good time for an update. I'm at an all-time high again. It looked like the PP had peaked in early September 2019, but it ended the year with a surge during the the last few trading days. My PP gained a nominal 16.7% in 2019 (about 14.3% real -- I'll know more accur...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 3947

Re: Golden Butterfly

I believe Sophie means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14).
by Pet Hog
Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset locations
Replies: 46
Views: 5561

Re: Asset locations

Somehow the section from the book on Tax Deferred Accounts that I put here did not show up? "Tax-Deferred Accounts (Speaking of gold, bullion is taxed as a “collectible” at a special high 28% capital gains rate, so there is an advantage to holding it inside an IRA.) I believe this line from the boo...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 3586

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 24
Views: 5165

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. Ther...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 3586

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...
by Pet Hog
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 43
Views: 7560

Re: Podcasts

Guy dismantles the first chapter of Why We Sleep , via Tyler Cowen . Thanks, Kriegsspiel. That's a well articulated critique. This smackdown is exactly how peer review should work, but I think (from personal experience -- when I was a chemistry postdoc I must have reviewed hundreds of manuscripts) ...