Search found 104 matches

by cnh
Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 95
Views: 22161

Re: Question for Melveyr

The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge in this thread--and more generally in this forum and the crawlingroad blog--is interesting in light of some research published in recent years. For example, citing analysis by research firm Ibbotson Associates, the Wall Street Journal published an article...
by cnh
Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 4763

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

Thanks for the comments. I appreciate it.
by cnh
Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 4763

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

Really the first question to answer is " why is physical gold unacceptable?" The individual on whose behalf I am seeking second opinions is elderly and not interested in having to hold the physical gold directly, nor in having a custodian hold physical on their behalf. They understand the issue of ...
by cnh
Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 4763

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

It depends on what you mean by "impractical to hold physical gold". In your personal possession, or in any place at all? The answers to your questions depend on the answer to this question. Both. Not physical gold in one's possession and not stored in some other location (e.g. safe deposit box, all...
by cnh
Thu Feb 18, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 4763

Alternatives to Physical Gold

I'm interested in recent thinking about gold holdings. I've read the book: "The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy" by Craig Rowland and J. M. Lawson, and I'd like to hear the forum's latest views on the subject. Assuming it is very impractical for someone to hold phys...
by cnh
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: "Three" Horsemen of the Apocalypse and the PP
Replies: 4
Views: 2523

Re: "Three" Horsemen of the Apocalypse and the PP

Thanks, barrett, for the reply and your comments. I'm sorry I missed the "three-asset question" from a year ago you describe. Before posting, I searched the forum and didn't find anything similar; I suppose I didn't input the right keywords.
by cnh
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: "Three" Horsemen of the Apocalypse and the PP
Replies: 4
Views: 2523

"Three" Horsemen of the Apocalypse and the PP

A mid-2012 paper I read on SSRN about 18 months ago has hit the "pop" investment-economic media (with all-to-typical click-bait headline): [url=http://Opinion:%20Two%20reasons%20why%20gold%20may%20plunge%20to%20$350%20an%20ounce]Opinion: Two reasons why gold may plunge to $350 an ounce[/url] Hypothe...
by cnh
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Duration Hedged PP
Replies: 18
Views: 5520

Re: Duration Hedged PP

MG, would you share what you ultimately used for the duration of gold in your calculations? It's nothing revolutionary, but with NEM pegging its dividend to the price of gold, I realized I could just take the average yield of the gold mining industry. So, something like this? Twelve-month yield for...
by cnh
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Duration Hedged PP
Replies: 18
Views: 5520

Re: Duration Hedged PP

Can someone explain to me in layman's terms the point of this thread? I have a good grasp of fixed income duration, but how is the idea extended to stocks and gold? Buddtholomew, here's a very general and brief overview of the idea of stock duration: http://www.traders.com/Documentation/Feedbk_docs...
by cnh
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Duration Hedged PP
Replies: 18
Views: 5520

Re: Duration Hedged PP

MG, I'm very intrigued by your posts in this thread...particularly your latest.  I don't have "mad math skillz" either, but I'd be very interested to learn how you arrived at your effective portfolio duration for the 25X4 PP. I've been messing around with duration-based portfolio allocation, includi...
by cnh
Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock portion of PP
Replies: 15
Views: 5077

Re: Stock portion of PP

Worth a look: 10% small cap value index, 10% REIT, 10% emerging markets index, 25% long-term treasuries, 25% t-bills and 20% gold.  During 1972-2012, CAGR is 10.64% (versus 9.17% for 4X25 HBPP); SDEV, 7.57 (versus 7.76); worst year, -5.08% (versus -5.17%); and Sharpe Ratio, 0.74 (versus 0.53).
by cnh
Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:03 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: "Blacklisted Investments"
Replies: 7
Views: 3050

Re: "Blacklisted Investments"

Are other commodities on the blacklist, cnh? In the forseeable future, we can still grow coffee and raise hogs but gold, as critics like to say, "just sits there." Mining it is a messy affair and perhaps most of it has been mined. Commodities didn't appear to figure on any investor's "blacklist"--a...