Search found 278 matches

by portart
Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 164146

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Today I looked at the chart of TLT, at all time highs...Soooo, I sold it all, took the cash and will sit and wait for a nice correction. For once I sold high.. any thoughts? I am out of balance now in my PP but, at all time highs in my acct. I won't feel too bad if it keeps raging.
by portart
Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 87768

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

I think gold is a very volatile asset. We are in times where cash earns zilch.  Long term bonds, not much more. Gold pays nothing but protection which doesn't compound. So stocks are the place to be and will stay that way as long as the debt monster is pacified by politicians and investment houses. ...
by portart
Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
Replies: 224
Views: 70827

Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think

You say you draw out 4% a year. Call me dumb but could you clarify how this works to keep you from depleting your core balance? You say if "the markets are down, you take less then 5% less of the previous draw."  How much less? You are taking out on 4% so you would have a negative draw?  I...
by portart
Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
Replies: 224
Views: 70827

Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think

I am retiring in two years. I have the classic 25% PP. If I retired two years ago and drew out 4%, I am guessing I would down close to 8% since PP earned next to nothing in this time period. Assuming this is the case, what would I have to drop down to the the third year to avoid depleting my portfol...
by portart
Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 50
Views: 19110

Re: Annuities

I have an annuity with Prudential. I bought it in 2009. As it currently stands, if I was to start taking the funds, it would take 10 years to run to zero from the amount I originally put in. At that point I would begin collecting beyond the payment until the end of my life or my wife's whoever dies ...
by portart
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why do you use the PP?
Replies: 177
Views: 73722

Re: Why do you use the PP?

I have used PP for ten years. This is the first time I some level of fear with the potential bottom dropping out of gold. I like Pointedstick's idea of a second more aggressive portfolio (same as a pp if you rolled into one with less gold and treasuries changing the percentages so it's how you want ...
by portart
Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why do you use the PP?
Replies: 177
Views: 73722

Re: Why do you use the PP?

As a man in my late 60's, low volitility is quite attractive to me. I made my money. If I lose 3% a year in a PP, I won't go broke (I won't be thrilled either). If I have a 50/50 portfolio and lose 10% to 30% of my net worth, I will be pretty stressed with not much time to recover. I have seen equit...
by portart
Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 302548

Re: No where to hide

IMO, It's good to remember that gold can go for many years doing very little. It's the hardest section of PP to watch regularly since it bounces in large percentages and gives back. Right now we are entering the bottoming stage for gold which can go on for a few more years. Only a total change in th...
by portart
Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Major Change Coming Soon
Replies: 5
Views: 4664

Re: Major Change Coming Soon

PP was a star for years as the market crumbled. Now PP is in the dog house as equities returned to the mean, gold was sold, and treasuries are looking at interest rate hikes (or so projected, let's see if the administration can swallow a large dip in equities and a voting black eye).  At the end of ...
by portart
Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Major Change Coming Soon
Replies: 5
Views: 4664

Major Change Coming Soon

I have been in PP for ten years. When it reaches deep losing levels (gold and treasuries both being taken to the woodshed from past highs and stocks on an endless run), a change is in the works. No way can one area drive the other three. Most inflection points come at highs and lows....get ready
by portart
Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1745146

Re: The GOLD scream room

After all is said and done, gold is stagnant most of the time, moving with tight ranges, over such a long time as to make the holder feel its a waste. When it does move, it is often violent and unpredictable. It will disappoint over and over so often that faith can be lost. However the forces the mo...
by portart
Wed May 20, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1745146

Re: The GOLD scream room

Gold has been sitting doing very little while the market has gone straight up. Trees don't grow to the sky. Gold will move when most people are sure it won't. Every run up has been sold which means there is a large contingent of investors raking on a regular basis with easy timing. We all know every...
by portart
Tue May 12, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 302548

Re: No where to hide

We going down into a trough. You would expect when stocks do turn down, the other areas would pick up. Rather is seems that once the equities stop growing, we may get equally punished in stocks and gold as a total all over takedown of portfolio value. Maybe there is a master plan to give no one but ...
by portart
Wed May 06, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 302548

Re: No where to hide

Looking at PP from a distance and after having owned it for a long period of time, it's coming off of (for me) over a 10% average yearly gain to now, under 7%. Does this surprise me? Consider half the portfolio is in cash paying very little, treasuries that being haunted by the bottoming of interest...
by portart
Wed May 06, 2015 11:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 302548

Re: No where to hide

One strange thought enters my mind every once in awhile, although I never took action on it. I have been in PP since early 2000. I have noticed each time my PP reaches an all time high (the combination/conversion of all the elements) it's only a short time until it drops considerably. It's really al...
by portart
Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP ....Where Did It Go
Replies: 58
Views: 29641

PP ....Where Did It Go

Not that many years ago, PP was the darling of the investment world. PRPFX led all mutual funds in performance and this site was humming with activity. It's like a beach that has eroded. We don't have many cheerleaders left and the threads aren't as active. Do you think it will every find it's way b...
by portart
Sat Mar 14, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1745146

Re: The GOLD scream room

The strong dollar seems to be killing gold, period. All other currencies suck. The winner is the US buck. As long as that is the case, gold will be sold for dollars. Not sure what can change that but something will. As a PP holder, you feel the pain of 25% gold being cut to ribbons.
by portart
Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Are You Doing In PP?
Replies: 97
Views: 40003

How Are You Doing In PP?

PP is guesstimated to give you 9% over the long term with less volatility than a 60% 40% portfolio which is an 11% return with more volatility, as history might suggest. If you are closer to retirement, as I am, I am shying away from the volatility aspect so I am PP.  We have a current situation whe...
by portart
Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: A Way To Time Gold
Replies: 4
Views: 3953

A Way To Time Gold

Having thought long and hard about gold and why it won't go up, like a comet it hit me. If I want gold to go up, all I have to do is overweight stocks. That seems to always work in other investment I put money in. The more stocks I buy, the more they will drop and inversely gold will rise. Why did i...
by portart
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: physical vs GLD
Replies: 13
Views: 7022

Re: physical vs GLD

These replies indicate that you don't think it is safe staying in ETF gold, is that correct?
by portart
Fri Feb 20, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: physical vs GLD
Replies: 13
Views: 7022

physical vs GLD

From the standpoint of taxes would you go all physical (pull out 25% of a retirement fund, pay Uncle Sam 28% or more tax) then buy physical or stay with GLD as your 25% allocation of gold in GLD. Is GLD performing it's job as the gold allocation product for a PP, safely and productively? I have been...
by portart
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:41 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds Leading the Charge
Replies: 1
Views: 2107

Bonds Leading the Charge

My bonds part of PP is higher than any other component. Is now the time to sell and rebalance?
by portart
Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1745146

Re: The GOLD scream room

My Variable is all in GDX and GDXJ. Still holding but losing money in hard bunches. I know a way to get it to reverse...sell it.
by portart
Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Allocation to GDX?
Replies: 15
Views: 8977

Re: Permanent Allocation to GDX?

Anyone want to take a stab at when GDX and GDXJ bottom? Maybe at $.50 a share..its REALLY ugly
by portart
Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Comfort Days for PP
Replies: 0
Views: 1775

Comfort Days for PP

Interesting how long term bonds balanced out almost evenly for the drop in equities with a small increase in gold.. After all that, my portfolio is flat. How wonderful it would be if gold would take a nice march back up in price... Don't expect that to happen as that would be too easy. I guess all t...