Search found 963 matches

by glennds
Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:53 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

I'm not the one coming up with this equivalency; the leftist who says the church is being hypocritical by not advocating for gun control did that. Regardless, the major moral issue is intentional taking of life, which is very different in kind from traffic accidents. If life begins at conception, w...
by glennds
Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:56 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

For many years we have heard the demands for the protection of the unborn—often at the expense of the living—from some segments within the Christian church. But if we are really for life, I must ask where is the cacophony of voices for stricter gun control laws to protect the lives of the living? W...
by glennds
Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:16 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Before the automobile was invented death (and significant injury to children) were zero. Since the invention of the automobile being in one is now 90% safer .... yet death by automobile is the #1 cause of death to children. But because they are all spread out geographically it does not trigger the ...
by glennds
Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:02 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

School shootings are also down from the 1990s. The avg American would certainly not guess that. The data suggests your statement is nonsense. Note the 2022 data is only through May. Annualized it looks pretty consistent with 2020. More information can be found at: https://www.chds.us/ssdb/charts-gr...
by glennds
Sat Jun 18, 2022 7:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

I'm reminded of this video: https://youtu.be/XbZ8zDpX2Mg We're seeing the leveraged money and speculators exit. There will be those of us that will carry the flame until the mania returns again. I will certainly be buying, but at what point? $10k seems not far off. Didn't think I'd ever get the cha...
by glennds
Sat Jun 18, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Some store of value. The only thing for sure at this point is it can't go any lower than zero, so we know there's a floor. But if you're an intrepid speculator, what better time than after a precipitous 70% crash? The counter argument is that after a crash like that the market trust in Bitcoin might...
by glennds
Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Rather, crypto is really buying into a digital manifestation of a philosophy. But philosophies don't bay the bills. They're luxuries you can afford to put money into when you have extra. This makes crypto a prosperity-linked asset. ........ Except unlike stocks, there is no clear lower bound on the...
by glennds
Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 241

Re: Inflation

The level of debt seems like a significant difference: https://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/ Does this limit how high it can raise interest rates to combat inflation? Or would it incentivize the fed to inflate the debt away? BTW that longtermtrends site seems freaking amazing. Agree! There...
by glennds
Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

The Keynesian vs Monetarist disagreement is about the root causes of inflation which is basically what is happening in the comments above. To some degree there's also a demand-pull vs. cost-push question, which your linked article talks about. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/0...
by glennds
Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar....
by glennds
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082246

Re: The GOLD scream room

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am


Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?
Vinny that's like asking which is my preference, my son or my daughter? Couldn't live without either.
Two geniuses.
by glennds
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082246

Re: The GOLD scream room

It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to. Not yet at least. Have you (or anyone) looked at historical data on gold's responsiveness to changing economic conditions? Weeks? Months? I'm t...
by glennds
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 486741

Re: Stock scream room

Thank you for clarifying that. On the one hand I get it, they're giving you the total portfolio growth whether that came from investment returns or contributions. On the other hand, if you start with a $10,000 portfolio and contribute $1000/month, it will give you a CAGR of over 29% in the summary ...
by glennds
Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:49 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 486741

Re: Stock scream room

Joypog, something doesn't look right. There's no way the PP would be returning a CAGR of 12.59% for that time period. It should be closer to 6% or a little less.
by glennds
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10738

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Bitcoin was actually a pretty great monetary inflation hedge (went up a lot during money "printing" in the last years), I'm still wondering if this was causation or random correlation. I keep reading things from BTC aficionados that the price cycles have a lot to do with "halvings" and adoption. I ...
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

It's a fair counterpoint, but it doesn't necessarily follow that the screening is what prevented hijacking. For example, the passengers wouldn't put up with an attempted hijack anymore. Before 9/11 they would, because the typical hijacker just wanted to be dropped off somewhere. Also, if airport sc...
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:22 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

This is a valid point. But wouldn't you say our airport security laws flag many, maybe thousands of people, only a small handful of which had nefarious intentions? So should that mean we loosen or eliminate airport security? Or do we accept inconvenience to many in pursuit of safety for a relative ...
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:49 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Zdogg and Vinay Prasad had a great discussion about the gun/shooter situation in about the first half of this video. Highly recommended. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9i8cD4j4sQE It's refreshing to hear somebody say that the real problem is figuring out what potential solutions would actually mak...
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8132

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

but the pp is still not that far from other comparable models . like i said it my be disappointing since the pp battle cry has been wait until stocks fall and when they did the pp wasnt helped by its safety assets compared to other conservative models . i havent tracked the dalio all weather in a w...
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: No bid on mortgage backed securities
Replies: 2
Views: 157

Re: No bid on mortgage backed securities

So this presages a housing market crash, yes?
Mortgage rates = cap rates = prices. When prices drop below replacement cost, we have a crash.
What am I missing?
by glennds
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8132

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I admit it's taking some discipline, but I'm trying to resist passing judgment on the PP's current performance until later this year. The reason - IIRC even in 2008 when equities crashed, it took some time before bonds, then gold rallied. For a short while, all four buckets were down. Is it fair to ...
by glennds
Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:50 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

School shootings seem like a relatively minor instance of this larger problem: Scientific and technological progress might change people’s capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civiliza- tion. For example, advances in DIY biohacking tools might make it easy for anybody with basi...
by glennds
Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 out of 4 assets failing
Replies: 4
Views: 318

Re: 3 out of 4 assets failing

EdwardjK wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:38 pm

What is a PP investor to do?
Wait it out
by glennds
Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The possible reversal of Miranda rights?
Replies: 5
Views: 280

Re: The possible reversal of Miranda rights?

Federalism is brilliant in its aspiration. The question always becomes at what point is the differentiation from one state to the next counter productive? I'd say I'm a fan of differentiation up to the point where it starts to threaten the "United" in United States of America. Unthinkable things are...
by glennds
Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:13 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5607

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

However, I do think some of the crowd just got caught up in the moment and afterwards realized they made a huge mistake .... Lots of research on herd mentality, mob mentality, pack mentality. A emotionally charged situation can cause us human beings to completely suspend individual rational thinkin...