Search found 66 matches

by glennds
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 51
Views: 9334

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future. And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future? I think the discus...
by glennds
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 51
Views: 9334

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future.
And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future?
by glennds
Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 7589

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

This is me on all accounts. Remember, I have both a 70/30 and HBPP. I see value in the PP design and appreciate the inherent firewalls as well as cash as an emergency fund perspectives. These are the best features in my opinion. BUT...for this safety you give up stock market gains. For the accumula...
by glennds
Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 7589

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

I think I get some of Budd's thinking. I wouldn't call it baloney if what he's saying is that the HBPP trades upside in an equity bull market for downside protection in a bear market (or better put - a period of inflation, deflation or recession). The issue is the opportunity cost of the upside you ...
by glennds
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 7589

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

Vanguard keeps trying to convince me that I should be 80% stocks every time I log into my retirement account. I'm in my mid-50s!! That is just outrageous. I wonder if stocks are more lucrative than bonds for brokerages. Yes, the 80/20 crowd are indeed the ones whose retirement accounts get decimate...
by glennds
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 5877

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

Hal, you may have stated it better than I. I should not have used the term volatility. What I was trying to say was that the 30year Treasury would be more sensitive to the changes in economic condition than the shorter duration bonds, and in the HBPP strategy, that's what you want. A shorter duratio...
by glennds
Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 5877

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

My bond duration is down to 5 years. Taken together with cash, they are 3 years. Definitely not HBPP. Well... there's a small HBPP in there somewhere, surrounded by a huge rind of Otherness. Historically, it hasn't mattered much. Buy federally-backed fixed income with a composite duration in the 5-...
by glennds
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 4239

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

I shouldn't have read it as that's 10 minutes of my life I'll never get back. Sophie, I couldn't agree more. Plus the author is using one of the oldest parlor tricks in the book to turn the reader into a "subscriber" which conveniently results in an income stream for him. What's the parlor trick? P...
by glennds
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 4239

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

Of course I agree with Browne about their being no way to forecast the future. I held the full PP myself for nearly 5 years starting in '08 and benefitted considerably but I don't think the purist version of the allocation is well-suited to current market conditions. No one can know, obviously, wha...
by glennds
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 4239

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

Sorry to be a cynic, but I have trust issues with people who write about how they called previous market corrections (after the fact), and use as a confirming source -themselves. I would find it more credible if he could point to an article or video where he can be quoted calling the bubble before i...
by glennds
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 108
Views: 18604

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

Granted it's only been a day and the PP is a marathon, not a sprint BUT.... If Budd (or anyone) had held his nose taken Option #1 last week, it would be looking like a pretty good move today seeing as how long T bond is up 80bps as of a few minutes ago. Who would have thought that would be remotely ...
by glennds
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 108
Views: 18604

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

Thanks Glennd’s for the reminder. Stocks are rebounding with Gold/LTT’s selling off. By the way, I should say I completely get and share your pain. That's what drove me to the Peak2Trough tool to look back at the history myself. I occasionally have to remind myself of the quote in the article that ...