Search found 70 matches

by glennds
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 27
Views: 360

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

The amount of cases are growing so fast it is really impossible to guess the mortality rate until it's all said and done. This very well could be 6-7% mortality. Not saying that I believe it is that high, but it is possible. Either way, it's worse than the media is reporting because their statistic...
by glennds
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 27
Views: 360

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

If the coronavirus starts spreading here in the US, it'll be bad, but not THAT bad. I looked up some statistics to gauge its impact compared to the flu. In a nutshell, the mortality rate is higher than the flu, but it is not as contagious. There are 75,000 known cases in China; in reality the numbe...
by glennds
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 3108

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

I believe where real estate as an investment (i.e. rental property, fix and flip) trips people up is the accounting required in order to properly assess what is going on. For example if you buy a bond, you pay for it once, then you receive interest payments, and then you sell it (or it is redeemed)....
by glennds
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 65
Views: 25280

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

If you're uncomfortable going in all at once, why not ease in? For example transition 1/4 of your funds each quarter over the course of a year. Or longer, or shorter, your call. Either way, there's no real way to answer your questions except in 20/20 hindsight. But I would think easing in would subs...
by glennds
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 51
Views: 12647

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future. And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future? I think the discus...
by glennds
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 51
Views: 12647

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future.
And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future?
by glennds
Mon Mar 12, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 9380

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

This is me on all accounts. Remember, I have both a 70/30 and HBPP. I see value in the PP design and appreciate the inherent firewalls as well as cash as an emergency fund perspectives. These are the best features in my opinion. BUT...for this safety you give up stock market gains. For the accumula...
by glennds
Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 9380

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

I think I get some of Budd's thinking. I wouldn't call it baloney if what he's saying is that the HBPP trades upside in an equity bull market for downside protection in a bear market (or better put - a period of inflation, deflation or recession). The issue is the opportunity cost of the upside you ...
by glennds
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents
Replies: 21
Views: 9380

Re: What to Make of High Stock Allocation Proponents

Vanguard keeps trying to convince me that I should be 80% stocks every time I log into my retirement account. I'm in my mid-50s!! That is just outrageous. I wonder if stocks are more lucrative than bonds for brokerages. Yes, the 80/20 crowd are indeed the ones whose retirement accounts get decimate...
by glennds
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 8214

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

Hal, you may have stated it better than I. I should not have used the term volatility. What I was trying to say was that the 30year Treasury would be more sensitive to the changes in economic condition than the shorter duration bonds, and in the HBPP strategy, that's what you want. A shorter duratio...
by glennds
Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 8214

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

My bond duration is down to 5 years. Taken together with cash, they are 3 years. Definitely not HBPP. Well... there's a small HBPP in there somewhere, surrounded by a huge rind of Otherness. Historically, it hasn't mattered much. Buy federally-backed fixed income with a composite duration in the 5-...
by glennds
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 5663

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

I shouldn't have read it as that's 10 minutes of my life I'll never get back. Sophie, I couldn't agree more. Plus the author is using one of the oldest parlor tricks in the book to turn the reader into a "subscriber" which conveniently results in an income stream for him. What's the parlor trick? P...