Search found 688 matches

by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296542

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Hence my point: "if you were a buyer of stocks during that period (rather than selling in a panic), then you made out like a bandit."

Ignore drawdowns to your benefit, or ignore them at your perile. After all, it's your money.
by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296542

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

People obsess over max drawdowns WAY too much. Unless you're in retirement (or close to it) you should ignore drawdowns entirely. In fact, you should greedily view them as ideal buying opportunities. The market only took 3 years to completely recover from the Great Recession, and that was after a dr...
by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296542

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

I have almost entirely exited US equities. I bought CWI ETF of global stocks excluding US. VEU is another choice. This was the May 31 Dual Momentum signal. It feels strange. Now the financial news is oddly not relevant. I'm dependent on Mario Draghi, PBoC, BOJ more than Yellen. It's fun to look at ...
by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350164

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I only keep 60% of my HSA portfolio in the HBPP. I divide up the other 40% by putting 10% each into:
  • Small Cap Value
  • US REIT
  • Foreign Developed Markets
  • Diversified Emerging Markets
Working nicely for me so far.
by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Amazon.com: Making their workforce disappear
Replies: 23
Views: 14250

Re: Amazon.com: Making their workforce disappear

It's not the drones we need to fear... it's the nanobots:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(novel)
by rocketdog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 401K rules are changing
Replies: 3
Views: 2228

Re: 401K rules are changing

The other change is the elimination of the so-called "Stretch IRA":
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retir ... heirs.html
by rocketdog
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tesla Motors
Replies: 135
Views: 94482

Re: Tesla Motors

Whitney "The Prophet" Tilson is making the case for TSLA dropping to $100 by year's end:

https://empirefinancialresearch.com/art ... or-tesla-2
by rocketdog
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TD Ameritrade changing commission-free ETFs
Replies: 23
Views: 17172

Re: TD Ameritrade changing commission-free ETFs

My wife's HSA is at TDAmeritrade as well so here are the changes I made (I hate paying commissions if I can avoid them): Gold = IAU (unchanged, and not commission free, but no commission-free options exist). Long-term Treasuries = SPTL Stocks = SPTM Cash = None (I don't believe in holding cash until...
by rocketdog
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Re-balance instantly or wait a little while?
Replies: 23
Views: 15019

Re: Re-balance instantly or wait a little while?

Another option: Sell an equal amount of whatever has gone down (I'm guessing gold?) to offset the gain in stocks. The loss on gold will offset the gain on stocks. Then, wait 31 days (to avoid the wash sale rule) and repurchase gold (or whatever you need to get back in balance). Consult a tax prepare...
by rocketdog
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Permanent Supplement Regime
Replies: 324
Views: 365925

Re: The Permanent Supplement Regime

Assuming you don't suffer from a chronic health condition, the human body does not need supplements in pill form if you eat a healthy, varied diet. That said, I take these supplements: Multi-vitamin - Doctor recommended as a "safety net" just in case I'm missing anything in my vegetarian diet (unlik...
by rocketdog
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Permanent Tooth and Gum Care Regime
Replies: 176
Views: 281249

Re: The Permanent Tooth and Gum Care Regime

The evidence in support of flossing is weak at best, and probably non-existent: Weak, unreliable evidence suggests flossing plus toothbrushing may be associated with a small reduction in plaque http://www.nature.com/ebd/journal/v13/n1/abs/6400835a.html The Medical Benefit of Daily Flossing Called In...
by rocketdog
Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Resurrecting the debate of Leverage using a house
Replies: 13
Views: 8810

Re: Resurrecting the debate of Leverage using a house

1) If you can't afford to pay cash for the home, you can't afford it. So... no one should ever finance anything?  Not even a college education?  That's not very realistic now, is it?  Top-rated financial advisor Ric Edelman says there are 11 Great Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage .  Personally...
by rocketdog
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43436

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

+1 Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying.  That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point You'll be. In panic. Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund.  I think ...
by rocketdog
Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Replies: 90
Views: 43436

Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Why? If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them. Stocks are still insanely overvalued. But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea. The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it'...
by rocketdog
Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
Replies: 9
Views: 7168

Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%

FWIW, our (my wife and I) combined return for 2015 was -4.0%.  And that's for a combined portfolio with this overall asset allocation (only part of which is dedicated to a PP):
3% Commodities
3% Int'l Bonds
4% Cash
6% REITs
9% Gold
10% US Bonds
25% Int'l Stocks
40% US Stocks
by rocketdog
Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is once again positive YTD
Replies: 202
Views: 65567

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Pointedstick wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: LOL!  I think you're dreaming.  Blacks are always going to be eternally grateful to the Democratic torchbearers for getting them their civil rights.

But, it would be really cool if it ever happened.
How ironic it is that it took a Republican (Lincoln) to free the slaves. 
by rocketdog
Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is once again positive YTD
Replies: 202
Views: 65567

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

3. You have forgotten to divide by four in your "worse" figures for 10/14.  You can't just add the percentages together without factoring in that each asset only makes up 25% of the portfolio.  So your worse numbers are actually all on the order of –0.8%; that is, they are better!  And the dividend...
by rocketdog
Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is once again positive YTD
Replies: 202
Views: 65567

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Not only that, for the moment it's beating a 100% total stock market index portfolio and a conservative 55% bond Boglehead portfolio. All assets but stocks are once again positive YTD. Could turn around tomorrow, but it's at least a good reminder of how tough a year this has been for investments. U...
by rocketdog
Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1384618

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Where the Gospels Came From: Have you ever wondered where the gospels came from? Here’s your answer, compiled from Bart Ehrman (for the telephone game) and too many atheist Internet sources to list. (Yes, this is satire.) https://www.thinkingchristian.net/posts/2015/10/where-the-gospels-came-from/?...
by rocketdog
Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee
Replies: 5
Views: 4181

Re: Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee

I just stumbled across this study independently and was glad to see it had already been discussed here (you PPers are always right on top of things!)  I thought I'd share a link to the Executive Summary, as well as a quote from the report that pretty much sums up their findings: http://health.gov/di...
by rocketdog
Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cool Chart Commentary
Replies: 11
Views: 6180

Re: Cool Chart Commentary

Good point... possibly.  I'll have to add inflation to my table and see how the nominal returns are over time. 
by rocketdog
Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 86486

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

what must happen to you PERMANENT PORTFOLIO or to the world that makes you quit from having a PP ? 3-4 years falling? The PP has never had 2 back-to-back years of negative returns.  So put 3 of them together and I would be very, very concerned.  Of course, that would also mean that there were likel...
by rocketdog
Thu Sep 17, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cool Collection of PP Charts
Replies: 15
Views: 79006

Re: Cool Collection of PP Charts

I just happen to have some charts of my own I created a while back.  The first is the source data, and the rest are graphs based off of that data.  That last one concerns me, as the 43-year Total Return trend line is clearly sloping downward.  Enjoy. http://s19.postimg.org/vcmixw5f7/PPAnnual_Chart.p...
by rocketdog
Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Replies: 275
Views: 103006

Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

Pardon the intrusion, but I didn't have time to read all 17 pages of posts in this thread.  I dusted off my PP historical performance spreadsheet and wanted to share some food for thought.  (Note:  the numbers below assume you bought a PP on 1/1 of each year and held it without rebalancing until 1/1...