pretty much that the pp flaw is it bets equal amounts of dollars on anything but equal amounts of risk playing out . deflation being the last likely and prosperity being the most likely markets are up 2/3’s of the time typically. for more than the last two decades we have had gold beating bonds … e...

Hello



What do you recommend for European investors ?

Regards

Have you read Deep Risk, by William Bernstein? It’s about your question, including the PP. Hi I Shrugged, Thanks for the recommendation! I haven’t read Deep Risk by William Bernstein yet. Could you please share the main conclusions or insights from the book related to the Permanent Portfolio and th...

IBIT is the most liquid i think for a general investor, IBIT is easiest and safest. I don't think crypto exchanges like coinbase are particularly safe. I cold wallets are a good problem holding the seed keys. The issue is even bank safety deposit boxes in the US. I saw in the news that people have ...

Hi 👋🏻 If you’re familiar with the Permanent Portfolio strategy proposed by Harry Browne, you know the concept is elegant in its simplicity: 🌍 The economy moves through 4 macro scenarios: 🔹 Expansion 🔸 Recession 🔥 Inflation 🧊 Deflation So, you diversify your assets equally: 💰 25% Stocks (for growth) ...

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Jul 08, 2025 1:38 pm I think the danger is that you are too exposed on the long duration fixed income side.

Hi

Do you use less duration for LTB ?

Regards

Mat,

can you explain in detail your experience with this method?

frugal, flooding the forum with AI text isn't particularly helpful. Please give us your thoughts/concerns rather than just pasting from somewhere else. Hi Xan, English is not my first language, so sometimes I rely on tools to help express complex ideas. But I understand your point :-[ Best regards!

The Main Issue with the 95/5 Rule: What if You Can’t Withdraw in a Given Year? As we’ve seen in the previous table, in years when the portfolio drops or doesn’t recover enough, the 95/5 rule prevents you from making a withdrawal to protect capital. That’s great for long-term sustainability... But w...

Mat, is this correct? 🧮 Assumptions: Initial balance: €1,000,000 Annual withdrawal: Up to 5% of the current balance, but only if the resulting balance remains above 95% of the portfolio’s all-time high (HWM - High Water Mark) High Water Mark (HWM): The highest value the portfolio has ever reached (u...

the pp was designed for a much longer maturity tlt has an effective maturity of 25.67 years harry specifically says on page 354 of why the best laid plans go wrong , maturity needs to be at least 25 years to qualify. page 355 says anytime the maturity of the 30 year bond falls to 25 years , you nee...

Hi everyone! 👋 I’ve been diving into the Permanent Portfolio strategy — the classic allocation of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash — and I really appreciate its simplicity, resilience, and balance across market conditions. 📈📉🌟 That said, most of the information I find focuses on the acc...

Hi everyone, I’ve been doing some research on long-term bonds (e.g., 30-year maturity), and I’m trying to better understand the real differences between buying a bond directly (“paper bond”) versus buying an ETF that holds long-duration bonds (like TLT, ZROZ, or IGLB). Here’s what I’ve gathered so f...

Hello, everyone I’m currently looking into ways to invest in Bitcoin through ETFs, and I’m mostly interested in spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs directly hold Bitcoin and aim to follow its price as closely as possible. Some examples I’ve found are: • IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust • FBTC – Fidelity Wise ...

We are using LLMs for everything at work lately, and it's being encouraged more and more. A lot of my job is just acting as a proofreader for LLM output for errors now. Sorry, but to the point about 30 year bonds in the PP... I've long said that they do belong in the PP, but only if the interest ra...

My portfolio is 7 equal parts US-LCG, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, Cash, LTT, Gold, Managed Futures, basically 14% each. So I guess you could say that my MF, and US+Intl SCV holdings are my VP....so that would be 42% of our overall portfolio, with the remaining 2% (7*14%=98%) as just straight up play money wh...

Hi everyone, I’ve been using the Permanent Portfolio (PP) strategy for a while now and I appreciate its stability and resilience. That said, I’m curious to know what kind of variable portfolio (VP) others are combining with it, if any. Do you stick with a simple VP of global equities, or do you go f...

My choice for long-term bonds is an ETF on the EUROGOV® Germany 10+. The average remaining term is currently 18.9 years. The ISIN is DE000ETFL219. This year, too, despite all the uncertainty caused by politics and the decline of the US dollar for European investors in the eurozone, the portfolio is...

Hey everyone, This is a question I’ve seen come up quite often — and it's one I’ve wrestled with myself as someone exploring and refining Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio (PP): “If the PP is meant to work over decades, why include long-term bonds, which are so vulnerable to rising interest rates? ...

I loved long bonds when I was 40 O0 Don’t want to stick my wife with them. What is your option and solution for LTB? Hug 🫂 I have quietly opted for what a lot of others here have chosen: shortening the overall duration. I have some long bonds, the oldest of which mature in 2050. But, I don’t buy ne...

when you go back thru time frames the last two decades it’s like equities and gold beat equities and bonds over most time frames . i am retired and really have no use for bonds at this stage . i keep a minimal amount but i can’t really say why . call me old school . equities gold and cash instrumen...

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jun 16, 2025 5:16 pm I loved long bonds when I was 40
Don’t want to stick my wife with them.

What is your option and solution for LTB?

Hug

Hey everyone, :) I've been a long-time advocate and holder of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio (HB PP) for a while now. I've really appreciated its stability and "all-weather" diversification through various market conditions. ☔☀️🌬️❄️ Initially, I started with the classic 25% stocks, 25%...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 11:23 pm It's not too late to invest in Bitcoin.

It's too late to not invest in Bitcoin.

Please explain