Search found 55 matches

by Stunt
Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel
Replies: 43
Views: 22159

Re: My Latest Research on the PP's Big Fat Flaw aka Achilles' Heel

I understand what is being proposed and being an engineer, I do have a soft spot for optimizing to maximize returns with limited resources.  Unfortunately investing and the market has almost infinite variables and cannot be thought of like a process with repetitive characteristics and constant input...
by Stunt
Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Different way of defining PP
Replies: 4
Views: 3442

Re: Different way of defining PP

If you consider stocks, bonds and cash all investments, then most retirees have 100% of their portfolio in investments. I think a gold component at 25% is hugely unique, inceeasing it would be overkill - you are already further ahead than the vast majority.
by Stunt
Tue Feb 03, 2015 8:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Republican Field To Take On Hillary
Replies: 59
Views: 20677

Re: The Republican Field To Take On Hillary

While I agree a Republican is likely to be a better manager of policy and the economy, I disagree with the idea of nominating for electability. Typically this results in a watered down candidate without conviction, less motivated electorate and someone seen as inspirational. Look at the last few cyc...
by Stunt
Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: New Generation Hamburger Chains
Replies: 48
Views: 22930

Re: New Generation Hamburger Chains

Didn't know Five Guys had really good burgers, will have to check them out when I move stateside.
I see them around all the time and are starting to migrate north of the border.
by Stunt
Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Republican Field To Take On Hillary
Replies: 59
Views: 20677

Re: The Republican Field To Take On Hillary

Isn't Cruz off the list because he was born in Canada?
by Stunt
Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hello! and brand new Canadian PP
Replies: 7
Views: 4239

Re: Hello! and brand new Canadian PP

Thanks for replying. I'd like a bit of currency diversification since our CAD is mostly a petrodollar. I'll look into XLB. How do you buy gold? My current concern is that my account is so small that the commissions for physical gold would eat any gains. Once I reach a more sizeable portfolio then f...
by Stunt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hello! and brand new Canadian PP
Replies: 7
Views: 4239

Re: Hello! and brand new Canadian PP

Welcome to the forum. I've been using the Canadian PP for a few years now. I don't like how the TSX is mostly oil, mining or financials, very few tech, health, utilities, retailers in the index. I have split the stock portion between TSX and S&P500, if you want you can hedge the currency. For bo...
by Stunt
Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Poll: The Great Inflation
Replies: 26
Views: 14502

Re: Poll: The Great Inflation

Born in '83 - no clue...
by Stunt
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20693

Re: 2014 PP performance

Thanks for that chart! My PP return for 2014 was 9.58%.  Surprised me, as my PP started out a bit off balance.  It's interesting how we so easily focus on the bad times, and forget to notice as the portfolio is forging steadily upward.  Like the tortoise that beats the hare to the finish line! Soph...
by Stunt
Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20693

Re: 2014 PP performance

Hmmm, my numbers are quite different.  Using the adjusted closing prices (includes dividends) from Yahoo! Finance I get the following: Stocks (XIU) +11.9%    ((21.47 / 19.18) - 1) Gold (IGT)    +7.8% Bonds (ZFL) +17.4% Cash (ZFS)  +2.3% Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest) Unhe...
by Stunt
Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 PP performance
Replies: 38
Views: 20693

Re: 2014 PP performance

Since I hold the Canadian PP, I thought I'd share how our results differ from what you guys had in 2014. Stocks: +8.1% Bonds: +11.5% Gold: +4.4% Cash: +0.1% Total: +6.0% As you can see the resource heavy Canadian stock market got hit hard by the pull back in oil price. However that exit of foreign i...
by Stunt
Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015
Replies: 37
Views: 19364

Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

whatchamacallit wrote: S&P 500  2550

30 Year    2.5%

Cash        0.005%

Gold        $1000

Bitcoin      $225
So stocks up 10%, bonds up 9%, gold down 20%, bitcoin down 28%...
PP flat for the year - what's you inflation expectation?
by Stunt
Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Strategy And My 401k
Replies: 40
Views: 17171

Re: PP Strategy And My 401k

flyguy - I'm similar to you, took a bath on stocks but was mostly invested in a 70/30 passive portfolio. I started buying hard assets in 2009-2010 after finding out how fragile the financial system was/is. PP was a good way to prevent me from buying too much gold/silver and prevents me from trying t...
by Stunt
Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Run Expectations For PP
Replies: 26
Views: 11617

Re: Long Run Expectations For PP

I understand what you are getting at - looking forward, the prospects for the PP assets in real terms appears to be low. But I would argue that all asset classes are looking high right now with all of the liquidity sloshing around. One thing you need to consider is the rebalancing aspect of the stra...
by Stunt
Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Career Relocation
Replies: 1
Views: 1234

Career Relocation

I have lived in Canada my whole life and have accepted a position in the United States with my company. I invest most of my savings in PP however due to the poorly diversified Canadian economy (heavily weighted to oil, mining and financials) I do hold half S&P500 in my stock allocation. The rest...
by Stunt
Thu Jun 05, 2014 9:08 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Coin Balance Fooled by fake gold Eagle
Replies: 38
Views: 23758

Re: Gold Coin Balance Fooled by fake gold Eagle

Do we need to rethink the "safety" of purchasing physical bullion for our PP in light of the fact that we may be buying fakes and can't tell the difference? Do you stop using currency because there are counterfeits? If the coin is so good to fool you, it's good enough to fool the next guy...
by Stunt
Thu Jun 05, 2014 9:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Retail Investor's Portolios
Replies: 3
Views: 2499

Re: Retail Investor's Portolios

The severely high cash allocation in developing countries is understandable as they are likely living off lower income and cannot afford to invest in any significant way or might be saving for goods with a less developed credit market. I am interested to see Europe and US...almost shows Americans he...
by Stunt
Thu Jun 05, 2014 5:22 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold taxes: The elephant in the living room?
Replies: 28
Views: 12354

Re: Gold taxes: The elephant in the living room?

I will confine my statement to responding to what I read as an implied approval of tax evasion in some comments above.... Taxes are the price of citizenship. If you don't want to pay them then you should have the integrity to move somewhere else rather than mooch off the benefits of other people's ...
by Stunt
Wed Jun 04, 2014 6:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold taxes: The elephant in the living room?
Replies: 28
Views: 12354

Re: Gold taxes: The elephant in the living room?

In Canada, no sales tax is applied to all gold and silver with greater than 99% purity. Maples, Eagles, Roos all tax free but Krugs are taxable. I buy physical because I don't trust the paper market, insurance against a SHTF scenario and yes tax avoidance. Hopefully my stash will get passed down to ...
by Stunt
Sun May 04, 2014 10:55 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Purchasing Physical Gold in Canada
Replies: 2
Views: 2421

Re: Purchasing Physical Gold in Canada

I prefer to find a trusted local coin dealer. This seems to be the most convenient method as coin dealers are well aware of various products and will mark up the least over spot (in my experience). One thing to watch is the coin dealers will sometimes push the numismatic or less pure metal products ...
by Stunt
Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 27069

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?p

Actually Gumby, your argument doesn't make sense...85billion a month is massive. $85b per month is 1trillion per year provided largely to financial institutions who would have normally held those bonds. They have a reserve ratio of 10% making the total value of QE 10Trillion, plus the inter bank len...
by Stunt
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 27069

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

But I wonder whether the model might be temporarily broken, until the Fed backs out of QE. Why is QE bad for the PP? QE isn't "bad" for PP but the model is based on diversifying for each economic cycle and QE prevented these cycles from occurring as they would in the past. Risk on assets ...
by Stunt
Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP expected return
Replies: 74
Views: 28907

Re: PP expected return

Same post as oh her thread. I want to look back on my post whichever thread gets bumped. Ultimately the call is on stocks since all others should be dependent on where they go in the new year. With companies buying back stock aggressively and with so much "new" money from QE, stocks should...
by Stunt
Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31723

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

Ultimately the call is on stocks since all others should be dependent on where they go in the new year. With companies buying back stock aggressively and with so much "new" money from QE, stocks should have an easy time moving up. If stocks go up marginally or steady - this will continue t...
by Stunt
Thu Dec 26, 2013 3:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predictions For 2013
Replies: 95
Views: 34409

Re: Predictions For 2013

I don't see a major difference between KShartle's views or Gumby's views other than one willing to accept the policies the fed and government officials roll out in hopes of perpetuating the status quo and the other changing investment strategies to counter potential missteps by these same groups. I ...