Search found 93 matches

by Peak2Trough
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Problem with Peaktotrough
Replies: 4
Views: 4120

Re: Problem with Peaktotrough

Fixed now, thanks for your patience.
by Peak2Trough
Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: peaktotrough bond funkiness
Replies: 2
Views: 2521

Re: peaktotrough bond funkiness

Thanks for the heads up, I had a look at this and it appears that the backend script that updates bond prices (actually yields) did not update during the 3/23-3/26 period.  That could happen for a number of reasons - website where I get the data was down, network problems between servers, etc.  As a...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?
Replies: 21
Views: 12026

Re: Has the PP Ever Suffered a -25% Nominal MaxDD?

As I've mentioned before, I like realistic backtests as compared to simple simulations such as Peak2Trough's Excuse me?  Just because you're wrong about the drawdowns on the HBPP and use bad, monthly data doesn't make my simulation "simple".  And the irony of you getting huffy in this post because ...
by Peak2Trough
Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 13424

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

6.34% CAR and -55.98% MaxDD I don't know what data you're using, but honestly, I think it's flawed.  I'm using daily data for all four assets going back to 1972, and as I've pointed out in the past, I get substantially different results from you based on the same initial criteria. In this case, I g...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 46 Years of the PP
Replies: 17
Views: 10561

Re: 46 Years of the PP

It really, really hurts the PP when bonds or gold goes the wrong way.  That's what caused the 26.50% MaxDD.  And it was not just a singular event, but quite regular in the 15%-25% range several times in the 46-years.  Ught.  The only way I can deal is to have my bonds duration-managed and give up s...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:45 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Server Issues?
Replies: 23
Views: 12342

Re: Server Issues?

Same here.  Not impressed with SMF have the admins considered a move to phpbb or vbulletin?
by Peak2Trough
Sat Apr 12, 2014 12:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Correction Ahead
Replies: 50
Views: 17520

Re: Correction Ahead

Sounds like someone's been reading too much Marc Faber.  ;)
by Peak2Trough
Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How was the PP experience in 2008?
Replies: 4
Views: 3922

Re: How was the PP experience in 2008?

Portfolio overall returned +1.5% in 2008 and there was a peak to trough drawdown of roughly 15% from 03/18/2008 to 11/13/208.

You can see for yourself here:

http://www.peaktotrough.com/hbpp.cgi
by Peak2Trough
Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:26 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Research Affiliates Article on Equity Risk Premiums
Replies: 0
Views: 2386

Research Affiliates Article on Equity Risk Premiums

I'm a big fan of Research Affiliates and Rob Arnott.  Somehow, this article, and particularly the conclusion, reads to me like an advertisement for the Permanent Portfolio.  I enjoyed it and thought I would share. http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our%20Ideas/Insights/Fundamentals/Pages/F_2011_March...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What's up with all the 403 Forbidden Errors?
Replies: 8
Views: 4422

Re: What's up with all the 403 Forbidden Errors?

I also see this fairly commonly on this board.  I'll make a note and screenshot next time I see it.
by Peak2Trough
Wed Jan 01, 2014 7:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31025

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

VTI +4%
TLT +8%
GLD +20%
SHY +1%

HBPP +8%

No shot, but against my better judgment, I'm determined to be optimistic :D
by Peak2Trough
Wed Jan 01, 2014 6:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predictions For 2013
Replies: 95
Views: 33820

Re: Predictions For 2013

Peak2Trough wrote: I'll go with:

VTI: -9%
LTT: +12%
Gold: +8% 
Tbills:  +3%

HBPP:  4%-ish

The third time I revised this post I realized I was just pulling numbers out of my... ahem.
About as wrong as I could have been.  Even missed the direction on 3 out of 4, which is actually kind of hard to do :)
by Peak2Trough
Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

Libertarian666 wrote:Really? How interesting.
You're welcome to provide an example if you disagree.  If your argument against one asset class applies to all investable asset classes, the argument is neither valid nor relevant to this discussion, wouldn't you agree?
by Peak2Trough
Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

An investment in "land" is actually an investment in a piece of paper called a "deed". If you doubt this, think of what happens when a government invalidates deeds and/or transfers them to other people. What happens to your "land investment" then? Complete non-sequitor.  There is NO investment safe...
by Peak2Trough
Wed Dec 11, 2013 8:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How Bitcoin Really Works
Replies: 27
Views: 20530

Re: How Bitcoin Really Works

What makes you believe Bitcoin will be zero?  I could see that if some entity like the US government put on a concerted effort to shut it down, but otherwise, it's a very convenient way to send value across international borders without sticking gold coins up your *$$...  Please don't underestimate...
by Peak2Trough
Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:08 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How Bitcoin Really Works
Replies: 27
Views: 20530

Re: How Bitcoin Really Works

I think it's more likely that the bitcoin market is so small, the price is very easily manipulated.  With only 21M bitcoins ever possible, this plus the transaction limitations may be the most significant drawbacks this currency faces.
by Peak2Trough
Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Zerohedge
Replies: 6
Views: 2986

Re: Zerohedge

Good for you!  I reached the same conclusion about 18 months ago.  That site is the http equivalent of cancer.
by Peak2Trough
Thu Dec 05, 2013 10:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

But this really hasn't been happening. http://i40.tinypic.com/20glaf5.png Sure it is.  Expand your graph back to early 2009 when QE began.  Or for the more statistically minded, someone work us up a correlation matrix between the 3 assets for the following time periods: - 1972 to Jan 2009 - 2009 to...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

So what's the alternative?  Cash?  Serious question. It's a good, and fair, question. One of the points on which I have always disagreed with Harry Browne is that he believes real estate is not an investment.  Despite the downturn, I have made more money in physical real estate investments than I h...
by Peak2Trough
Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

There have been other short periods where the assets have moved together (up or down). Usually I find there is a break where one or two split off then start to go opposite and the third continues the previous course. Thanks Craig… and yes, the above is true.  The difference in my mind is the vast a...
by Peak2Trough
Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP returns USA 2013?
Replies: 43
Views: 22087

Re: PP returns USA 2013?

Thanks guys, and yes, I guess I didn't think the whole "Peak2" and "Peakto" thing through very well :) I like to set the detail level to 'daily' and run the YTD results.  http://www.peaktotrough.com/images/2013-p2t.jpg What I find most concerning about the 2013 results isn't the 3%-ish loss, but rat...
by Peak2Trough
Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:33 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 588295

Re: YouTube Junkie

I'm not sure I'll ever stop laughing at this….  :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6DmHGYy_xk
by Peak2Trough
Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin giveaway! :)
Replies: 378
Views: 160165

Re: Bitcoin giveaway! :)

There you go P2T :) Thank you very much! Yeah, the party has started already but you are still early. The masses have not yet joined so the best is yet to come. Prices will likely go from the current $500 to $5000 in already 1 year, $50,000 in 2 years, $500,000 in 3 years and may even overschoot to...
by Peak2Trough
Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin giveaway! :)
Replies: 378
Views: 160165

Re: Bitcoin giveaway! :)

What a thread! I looked into building a mining rig earlier this year, just as everyone was about to transition to ASICs.  I finally decided it wasn't going to be worth the hassle with the difficulty increases that were sure to come after the ASICs finally delivered, and it looks like that is still t...
by Peak2Trough
Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Secular low in bonds not reached
Replies: 36
Views: 19756

Re: Secular low in bonds not reached

The thing that has me believing Lacy's prediction more than any other is that everyone is seemingly taking the other side of that bet.