I put 2% of my money in PRPFX two years ago as a test (in a taxable account).  I will increase this amount to 5% eventually.  I put 5% of my money in four ETFs a couple of months ago as a further test (in a retirement account).  I will increase this amount to 35% eventually. I do not want to put mor...

I like the HBPP because its construction is based on strongly-noncorrelated-but-volatile asset classes that can be easily managed by individual investors to make a low-volatility portfolio.  I find it easier to plan a withdrawal strategy for retirement when a portfolio exhibits a low volatility (at ...

There is any emergency plan if HBPP fails? Don't put all of your eggs in the HBPP basket.  For the VP, consider rental real estate (whether actual real estate or REITs and real estate funds) that pay out rental income when they cashflow positive.  Corporate bonds (funds or direct ownership) pay int...

The last thing I would want to do is convert the rest of the world over to the PP.  The reason is that the PP gives investors an edge.  When everyone has the same edge, no one has that edge anymore.  It's best (in my opinion) for the PP to remain as a mysterious backwater cult that the mainstream in...

I'm moving out of CA at some point in the future; as soon as the business makes enough to support my family on a monthly basis after the tax bite. I'm also considering moving to a different state, but my reasons are for retirement, not running a business.  My main criterion is the cost of living wh...

There is the "paradox of skill" which means that when everyone is more or less equally skilled, luck plays a greater role in choosing the top performers.  Competition raises the bar for everyone.  But if you want to do "good enough" as a private investor and not manage money for ...

It's not luck when you treat investing like a business.

I agree that a DIY PP is considerably cheaper than PRPFX or PERM.  The benefit of a DIY approach is faster compounding of wealth over time and retiring sooner.  But there is another cost that does not show up in the fees -- one has to have the knowledge and discipline to follow through on the rules ...

What if the PP dropped 50% in the middle of a year and happened to move back up to break even by Jan 1? That 50% could have just as easily lined up with Jan 1. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the Julian calendar. I think looking at intra year peformance is a great way to kick the tires. The P...

I was under the impression that the HBPP is a "once a year" portfolio:  check it every January 1 (or whenever) and rebalance as necessary.  The portfolio's value between these annual check points is irrelevant because no one is supposed to be looking at it.

This trend to the Internet is part of the "distance learning" trend.  This trend started many decodes ago with the "mail order" degrees offered by some universities (and those degrees were just as controversial then as Internet degrees are today). Back in the 1970s, for example, ...

I agree about the risk of being wrong.  I remember how bleak the 1970s seemed at the time, which made Business Week publish it's now infamous The Death of Equities article.  Soon afterwards, stocks started their two decade bull run.  Or how great the late 1990s seemed at the time, only to lead to th...

I will be in "dis-saving mode" in a few years when I become fully retired and start drawing cash from my investment accounts to pay living expenses.  My plan is to draw 3% of the portfolio the first year and then index subsequent year withdrawals to my personal rate of inflation (which is ...

I believe it makes sense to consider all sources of retirement income.  Stocks have a role to play. I also believe that cashflow-based investing is the foundation.  Stocks come into the picture to fund discretionary items (such as vacations and legacy gifts to charities), while predictable cashflow ...

k9 wrote: Unless that particular asset is overvalued.

I also prefer a drawup to a drawdown because it makes me look like a genius.

Is there another type of diversified, all weather portfolio that does relatively well when the PP does poorly? The PP is a way to tame Mr. Market.  Three strongly-noncorrelated but highly-volatile asset classes (stocks, long-term bonds, and gold) are played off against each other to sell high and b...

A drawdown is not the same thing as losing money when you have a long-term horizon.  When there is a drawdown and you need to cash out the investment in the short term for personal financial reasons, then yes, the end result is a permanent loss of capital. With a long-term horizon and plenty of cash...

It's not like going over a real cliff where there is a point of no return. Congress can change the rules any time it wants to, with any effective date is wants to use. While it's true that Congress giveth and Congress taketh away, the bigger issue is that people cannot plan when they do not know wh...

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History is replete with unintended consequences . One of my favorite authors is historian James Burke and his two shows Connections and The Day the Universe Changed .  I watched these shows 25 years ago when they were shown on PBS and I am now pleasantly surprise to discover that they are available...

Could you give us a hint about your strategy for these situations ? If gold possession was forbidden, I would very probably keep it more than ever (and maybe try to escape my country with it). I would use the Talmud portfolio (which has been discussed in other threads).  I would probably use REITs ...

That is the Hegelian Dialectic and it forms a big part of Marx's theories of how history progresses. Thesis --> antithesis --> synthesis (which now forms new thesis for the process to start a new.) I've always thought of this process as the Law of Unintended Consequences.  For example, Congress dec...

How could the federal reserve be responsible for the panic of 1907 when it hadnt even been created yet? In fact, the impetus for its creation was largely the 1907 panic itself. That is exactly the point.  Wall Street banker J.P. Morgan saved the United States from the Panic of 1907.  Congress did n...

We can certainly blame the government in this case.  But that is another way of saying we can only blame ourselves.  We are the ones who put these elected officials (and their appointees) in office.  When Long Term Capital Management melted down in 1998 (which is well documented in the book When Gen...

I want my investment incomes to be several times my living expenses so that I have room to maneuver in case we go through another financial crisis.  I consider investing to be a "profitable hobby" that I will do for the rest of my life.  Having more money than I need is an easier problem f...