But how big is the difference? And does it overcome the fact that with a barbell approach, you have the added flexibility of using your emergency fund as part of the cash portion of the portfolio, as well as the possibility of adding I Bonds to juice portfolio returns during times like these? Just ...

Good reminder. It looks like this fund almost hit the exact top. Impressive.

Initially I was wondering if this rule would save you from buying into long term treasuries when you shouldn't be but looking back at historical charts this doesn't look to be the case. Some of the best times to have 30 year treasuries actually appear to be when the yield curve is flat with elevated...

I don't know about ETFs causing trouble. I still think it is more that the population doesn't even think about owning gold. What was it like to buy gold in the 70s? Were there gold dealers everywhere or was it just a niche thing? What are people buying now to hedge inflation? I guess what I have see...

Is this something that needs to be applied to the "Permanent Portfolio"? It would have saved a lot of grief this year over long term treasuries. I found this other post on bogleheads https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46704 The post mentioned Larry' Swedroe's 2006 book: The Only Guide ...

2 or 3 year treasuries look to be the best bet to me. https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds VGSH is a cheap way to accomplish if you want a fund instead of buying direct. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGSH I have been trying to find a more detailed explanation of Lar...

I think taxes are one of those things that are guaranteed. I am not in the withdrawal phase but in my head, I expected to just sell from the asset that is up at the moment. That may then prevent a need to rebalance and also forces you to sell high. It would also spread out your taxes to each year in...

Historically, equal parts stock, long treasury and gold has outperformed the permanent portfolio but with deeper drawdowns. Since we have already had quite the drawdown, it sure seems like the correct answer would be to stay where you are at. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-...

eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%" Ride isnt over tho Am I looking at this right? Wellesley is up only 1% after 5 years when you don't include dividends. Vanguard Wellesley® Income Fund Inves...

Light shining on permanent portfolio again due to recent stock market declines.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/drive ... 1652095555

Does anyone else get this image in their head when listening to Bernstein?

The Dude

Great listen. I seem to always enjoy Bernstein.

Thanks for posting.

It might be the Chinese developer defaults causing the tight money

China’s Restructuring Firms Staff Up for Record Wave of Defaults
https://archive.ph/eTu8G

I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve d...

I have heard recently that it is specifically a shortage of silver eagles being produced. The dealers get their allotment from the Treasury and then have to go to open market if that doesn't cover demand. The open market will only sell at higher premiums. This causes the average premium to be higher...

If you are potentially buying a house you might still keep larger chunk in cash outside of retirement account. https://m.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-2-year-bond-yield 2 year Treasury paying 2.65 right now sure looks juicy. Hard to stomach buying a 30 year only paying 2.90. Doesn't seem worth the ...

Dxy up 12.59% in last year now. My understanding of what I have heard is all the dollar denominated debt is needing to be paid off. That causes the demand for the dollars and selling of everything else to get the dollars. The would include the selling of long bonds making rates go up there even thou...

https://youtu.be/FJ8AfnuhqA0

Gundlach still recommending Permanent Portfolio but replaces gold with commodities.

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-japan.html


Gold looks to be doing its job in Japan.

Up over 30% in a year.

https://www.investing.com/indices/usdollar I know there are lots of fears around the dollar losing reserve status and losing it's purchasing power. The DXY index has dollar up over 10% over the last year. Does anyone think this is no longer an accurate measurement? Where is capital flowing if not to...

pugchief wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:40 pm

I'll bet that ^ guy gets lots of dates.

I bet you are right on this.

I am sure he has the needed parasite.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=12576

Thanks for post. Michael Saylor is always entertaining to listen to. He hasn't convinced me quite yet but he makes you think.

$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either. I don't believe the $840 number is correct though. Did you calculate that or just grab the number from the TipsWatch article at https://tipswatch.com/? Any I-Bonds purchased in April won't actually earn any interest unti...

Website isn't that bad once you get used to it. It does feel like a web gui on top of a unix terminal though.

$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either.

A thought I realized. Cash is no doubt the hated asset right now. Seems like it could be the asset on sale right now then. U.S. 6M 1.1803 U.S. 1Y 1.7944 U.S. 2Y 2.5608 U.S. 3Y 2.7765 https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds 2 year looks like a nice sweet spot at 2.56.