Search found 583 matches
- Sat May 21, 2022 9:51 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
- Replies: 16
- Views: 1492
Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
But how big is the difference? And does it overcome the fact that with a barbell approach, you have the added flexibility of using your emergency fund as part of the cash portion of the portfolio, as well as the possibility of adding I Bonds to juice portfolio returns during times like these? Just ...
- Wed May 18, 2022 3:38 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Bitcoin's U.S. ETF begins trading
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1118
Re: Bitcoin's U.S. ETF begins trading
Good reminder. It looks like this fund almost hit the exact top. Impressive.
- Tue May 17, 2022 3:26 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
- Replies: 16
- Views: 1492
Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Initially I was wondering if this rule would save you from buying into long term treasuries when you shouldn't be but looking back at historical charts this doesn't look to be the case. Some of the best times to have 30 year treasuries actually appear to be when the yield curve is flat with elevated...
- Mon May 16, 2022 9:57 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3511
- Views: 1055389
Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't know about ETFs causing trouble. I still think it is more that the population doesn't even think about owning gold. What was it like to buy gold in the 70s? Were there gold dealers everywhere or was it just a niche thing? What are people buying now to hedge inflation? I guess what I have see...
- Mon May 16, 2022 8:33 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
- Replies: 16
- Views: 1492
Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Is this something that needs to be applied to the "Permanent Portfolio"? It would have saved a lot of grief this year over long term treasuries. I found this other post on bogleheads https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46704 The post mentioned Larry' Swedroe's 2006 book: The Only Guide ...
- Sun May 15, 2022 9:17 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
- Replies: 8
- Views: 195
Re: Intermediate Term Treasuries (instead of cash)
2 or 3 year treasuries look to be the best bet to me. https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds VGSH is a cheap way to accomplish if you want a fund instead of buying direct. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGSH I have been trying to find a more detailed explanation of Lar...
- Sat May 14, 2022 12:09 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
- Replies: 26
- Views: 613
Re: Rebalancing advice needed
I think taxes are one of those things that are guaranteed. I am not in the withdrawal phase but in my head, I expected to just sell from the asset that is up at the moment. That may then prevent a need to rebalance and also forces you to sell high. It would also spread out your taxes to each year in...
- Thu May 12, 2022 9:16 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
- Replies: 26
- Views: 613
Re: Rebalancing advice needed
Historically, equal parts stock, long treasury and gold has outperformed the permanent portfolio but with deeper drawdowns. Since we have already had quite the drawdown, it sure seems like the correct answer would be to stay where you are at. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-...
- Tue May 10, 2022 6:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
- Replies: 41
- Views: 7027
Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
eh, this is data worth knowing "wellesly income with 40% equities is down just 8,41% ytd compared to the permanent portfolio now minus 10.50%" Ride isnt over tho Am I looking at this right? Wellesley is up only 1% after 5 years when you don't include dividends. Vanguard Wellesley® Income Fund Inves...
- Mon May 09, 2022 9:46 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
- Topic: PRPFX made new market watch article
- Replies: 0
- Views: 244
PRPFX made new market watch article
Light shining on permanent portfolio again due to recent stock market declines.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/drive ... 1652095555
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/drive ... 1652095555
- Sat May 07, 2022 12:12 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
- Replies: 7
- Views: 635
Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Does anyone else get this image in their head when listening to Bernstein?
The Dude

The Dude

- Thu May 05, 2022 4:18 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
- Replies: 7
- Views: 635
Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Great listen. I seem to always enjoy Bernstein.
Thanks for posting.
Thanks for posting.
- Tue May 03, 2022 10:19 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 612
Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
It might be the Chinese developer defaults causing the tight money
China’s Restructuring Firms Staff Up for Record Wave of Defaults
https://archive.ph/eTu8G
China’s Restructuring Firms Staff Up for Record Wave of Defaults
https://archive.ph/eTu8G
- Mon May 02, 2022 9:38 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 612
Re: Is This a Tight-Money Recession?
I think so too. I found this quote from review of book: https://taylorpearson.me/bookreview/fail-safe-investing/ Stocks take advantage of prosperity. They tend to do poorly during periods of inflation, deflation, and tight money, but over time those periods don’t undo the gains that stocks achieve d...
- Mon May 02, 2022 3:10 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 353
Re: Silver Coins - why are eagles marked up so much?
I have heard recently that it is specifically a shortage of silver eagles being produced. The dealers get their allotment from the Treasury and then have to go to open market if that doesn't cover demand. The open market will only sell at higher premiums. This causes the average premium to be higher...
- Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP
- Replies: 6
- Views: 357
Re: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP
If you are potentially buying a house you might still keep larger chunk in cash outside of retirement account. https://m.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-2-year-bond-yield 2 year Treasury paying 2.65 right now sure looks juicy. Hard to stomach buying a 30 year only paying 2.90. Doesn't seem worth the ...
- Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:11 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 300
Re: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
Dxy up 12.59% in last year now. My understanding of what I have heard is all the dollar denominated debt is needing to be paid off. That causes the demand for the dollars and selling of everything else to get the dollars. The would include the selling of long bonds making rates go up there even thou...
- Sat Apr 23, 2022 5:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
- Replies: 41
- Views: 7027
Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
https://youtu.be/FJ8AfnuhqA0
Gundlach still recommending Permanent Portfolio but replaces gold with commodities.
Gundlach still recommending Permanent Portfolio but replaces gold with commodities.
- Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:23 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3511
- Views: 1055389
Re: The GOLD scream room
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-japan.html
Gold looks to be doing its job in Japan.
Up over 30% in a year.
Gold looks to be doing its job in Japan.
Up over 30% in a year.
- Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:06 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 300
Does DXY show dollar increasing in value?
https://www.investing.com/indices/usdollar I know there are lots of fears around the dollar losing reserve status and losing it's purchasing power. The DXY index has dollar up over 10% over the last year. Does anyone think this is no longer an accurate measurement? Where is capital flowing if not to...
- Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:09 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Secret IRS files reveal the top US income-earners and how their tax rates vary more than their incomes.
- Replies: 10
- Views: 347
Re: Secret IRS files reveal the top US income-earners and how their tax rates vary more than their incomes.
- Sat Apr 16, 2022 9:56 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Michael Saylor: Bitcoin, Inflation, and the Future of Money | Lex Fridman Podcast #276
- Replies: 3
- Views: 203
Re: Michael Saylor: Bitcoin, Inflation, and the Future of Money | Lex Fridman Podcast #276
Thanks for post. Michael Saylor is always entertaining to listen to. He hasn't convinced me quite yet but he makes you think.
- Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:30 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
- Replies: 53
- Views: 11108
Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either. I don't believe the $840 number is correct though. Did you calculate that or just grab the number from the TipsWatch article at https://tipswatch.com/? Any I-Bonds purchased in April won't actually earn any interest unti...
- Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:44 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
- Replies: 53
- Views: 11108
Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Website isn't that bad once you get used to it. It does feel like a web gui on top of a unix terminal though.
$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either.
$840 per $10000 over the next year if you buy now. No state income tax either.
- Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:29 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Good deal on treasuries vs CDs right now
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1306
Re: Good deal on treasuries vs CDs right now
A thought I realized. Cash is no doubt the hated asset right now. Seems like it could be the asset on sale right now then. U.S. 6M 1.1803 U.S. 1Y 1.7944 U.S. 2Y 2.5608 U.S. 3Y 2.7765 https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds 2 year looks like a nice sweet spot at 2.56.