Hi all, as we all know, gold only went to market price fluctuation after 1971, when Bretton Woods broke. As far as i understand, we can not use gold in back simulations because what we have are not market prices, but a stable price with almost all years in CAGR=0. But there are some years like in 19...

so then, from where is coming this consensus about using tbonds at the end of your savings and/or retirement period?  :-\ The idea is to have more stable income than capital gain risk.  It's just a sloppy rule of thumb.  Like all simplistic ideas, they take on a life of their own.  You need to do p...

Yes, you need to use real prices and ignore common wisdom.  Very few practice what they preach anyway.  It's all just regurgitation without critical thought. And another idea you may find useful is the concept of portfolio duration. so then, from where is coming this consensus about using tbonds at...

Hi again, i have been reading some pensiones schemes papers, and there is one issue i dont understand at all. when crisis hit an economy, one of the worst consecuences that can happen to a private pension, is the drop of asset prices, and the time it takes to recover prices again. This is named &quo...

Tyler, your charts are amazing, beautiful and useful :-). My last question :-) (i hope i am not bothering you). In here http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html i found historical total returns for stocks, bonds and bills. As far as i understand them, they are in no...

Hi Tyler, excellent tip. i never though this way about those $10k in 1971 in terms of median wages :-). so as far as i understand your help, if i want to know how much money you got coming from the past, you have to use nominal terms. real terms is just a way of having fast information about how muc...

Hi Tyler, thank you very much for your time. When Craig Rowland provides PP historic performance starting with 10.000$ in 1971, he provides nominal returns (specifically nominal CAGR). When you apply for a simulation on portfoliovisualizer.com, they provide the detailed year per year accumulation in...

Hi all, i am trying to do my own statistics, and end up with a couple doubts i would appreciate if anybody can help me :-). If i want to backtest a portfolio (portfoliovisualizer.com is an amazing tool), and double check how it evolved through time for a personal accumulation process, as far as i am...

@mathjak107, so as far as i understand, if we take into consideration dividends, inflation (or deflation) and "geometric mean" (CAGR), the data from moneychimp is what we have to pay attention, and not the indexes, that doesn't process those variables, right? once i got this, i just need t...

@mathjak107, thanks for your post. i appreciate it. by the way, is not what i was looking for. 1. i need to know why "performance" and "compound" are the way to analyze data, and not "composite" or "index". i dont understand why using Robert Shiller data you c...

researching on internet today, i have found a very interesting tool. Compound Annual Growth Rate (Annualized Return) calculator for sp500 (source: Robert Shiller data base) since 1871. Obviously, SP500 starts in 1926, but maybe they are using other indexes like Down Jones: http://www.moneychimp.com/...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations thank you very much Ozzy. Very interesting. by the way, i have several doubts. i have found 4 SP500 statistics since 1926: 1. SP500 performance statistic: https://www.savantcapital.com/uploadedImages/Savant_CMS_W...

good point :-). ok, lets say something more general: US equities since 1900 :-)

Hi all,

Does anybody advice me where can i find a study, chart or web analytic tool from were i can get the performance of a SP500 (plus dividends) + 10y Treasuries (plus cupons) portfolio since 1900? lets say 40/60, 50/50 and 60/40.

I would appreciate.

thanks in advance.

Arturo, stop thinking in nominal returns and start thinking in real returns.  Then you'll perceive cash as providing a nice return during certain economic environments.  Cash is an investment.  Its a short duration, debt instrument.  The PP is a wealth preservation vehicle, not a growth.  Focus you...

Hi all, thanks you all for your answers. i am a PP investor since some years, so as you can imagine, i have read tons of threads about everything in here. My question about cash (Tbills, CDS, dollars, or wherever) is not about how to allocate it, but if we really obtain a benefit from it. The money ...

Hi all, as we all know, cash is useful in times of recession. Until the economy decides where to evolve (depression, inflation or growth), we have this asset to buy other underperformed assets. But concretely, is in times when this three assets decrease in value (prices), that cash emerges as the ki...

GDP is 1 year.  Debt is measured over decades.  Apples vs oranges.  It's like the US debt clock that shows outstanding unfunded liabilities in the trillions going on for all eternity but not outstanding uncollected revenues.  Without revenues coming in from productivity, we would already have been ...

Hi all, researching on internet about global debt, i got a conclusion that is very scary: according to the official statistics, the total debt to GDP of 3 of the 4 biggest economies in the world (total debt: corporate, household, financial and government), is near to 400% total GDP (http://ftalphavi...

First a question: Do the charts reflect reinvested dividends? If not, that would seem to suggest one might have been better off with a more traditional boglehead 50/50 portfolio. Secondly I have long been of the opinion that the equity part of the PP ought to include some exposure to international ...

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Arturo, the first one on the list has coupon payments of 3.75% .  However its current yield is some .01%.  So, for a 100EUR bond face value you will have to pay some 101.30EUR these days to buy it.  You will get 3.75% per annum coupon payment at coupon payment date (prorated for the number of days ...

Arturo, the first one on the list has coupon payments of 3.75% .  However its current yield is some .01%.  So, for a 100EUR bond face value you will have to pay some 101.30EUR these days to buy it.  You will get 3.75% per annum coupon payment at coupon payment date (prorated for the number of days ...

Arturo, Just choose from the list below 3 bonds with the maturity you require. 3 rungs of a 3 year ladder. Once year 1 matures you roll it to a new 3 year maturity. See: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bondladder.asp The issue date and coupon size is not relevant. Just maturity.  Hi CA PP, you ...

For EU PP, You could simply consider dividing cash allocation into 3 ladders (one maturing  on March 2014, the other march 2015 and the third march 2016), just choose from the list below (Fälligkeit=maturity in german), take note of ISIN number and call your broker or purchase online: Just make sur...