Search found 33 matches

by jimbojones
Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Emergency Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 6381

Re: Emergency Fund

A Roth IRA could work, but note that contributions can be withdrawn only after a 5 year incubation period, so rolling 401K money through it at the time of the emergency won't work. Contributions can always be withdrawn tax-free and penalty-free.  The 5-year period relates to qualified distributions...
by jimbojones
Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:18 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Slow Dismantling of Obamacare
Replies: 34
Views: 11864

Re: The Slow Dismantling of Obamacare

... Forcing doctors to display their prices is not what most people would consider government coercion ... Huh?  Who will be forcing doctors to display their prices? I think we all glazed over the effect that Step 1 would have.  Getting rid of insurance companies results in consumers purchasing the...
by jimbojones
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Recent Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 20997

Re: Recent Performance

I've only been following the PP for a few months now, so I certainly understand the negative feelings related to the recent performance.  For me, the problem comes down to comparing the performance of Gold to the performance of a standard 50/50 or 60/40 bogleheadish portfolio.  For instance, today, ...
by jimbojones
Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Recent Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 20997

Re: Recent Performance

For those of us holding EDV, this really is a really awful PP day, I grant you that. With EDV being down almost 5% (even though TLT is up?!), and with gold also being way down... yeah. As I've said before, I started DCAing into the PP in September. It's been consistently down and more down and then...
by jimbojones
Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Liquidation Value Investing
Replies: 33
Views: 13971

Re: Liquidation Value Investing

Thanks for the kind words everyone, but let's get down to business! Anyone want to help me research IOT? I think they are sitting on a bunch of land. It looks cheap as hell. If these guys ever sold some land and paid a dividend this stock could triple. I think this is a situation where as long as m...
by jimbojones
Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:41 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EDV to pay 3% dividend (in article about bond ETFs and taxes)
Replies: 10
Views: 8955

Re: EDV to pay 3% dividend (in article about bond ETFs and taxes)

This is another example of a risk associated with mutual funds vs outright stock or bond ownership.  You lose the ability to time your cash flows.  I'm guessing a lot of funds will be increasing distributions right now to use the 2012 capital gains and dividend tax rates before they increase in 2013...
by jimbojones
Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FURIOUS with Vanguard - Secondary Bond Buying Warning
Replies: 3
Views: 4185

Re: FURIOUS with Vanguard - Secondary Bond Buying Warning

I feel your pain, MomTo2Boys.  My first bond orders were cancelled too.  Whenever you place an order, check the Order Status screen to see whether it has been fulfilled, cancelled, or remains open.  Essentially, you placed a limit order for the bond and nobody was willing to sell at the price.  With...
by jimbojones
Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: the cockroach strategy
Replies: 10
Views: 8247

Re: the cockroach strategy

Is it possible he never heard of HB?  I can't imagine anyone writing this article while knowing HBs investment philosophy. It's not impossible that he would independently come up with the same idea as Browne and then backtest it over the same period as we see here.  It's just really suspicious.  I ...
by jimbojones
Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying LTTs on secondary market
Replies: 21
Views: 10167

Re: Buying LTTs on secondary market

I think this is a really useful discussion.  Thinking about it more, the maturity date of the bond is not important.  It's the duration of the bond that makes the difference for gains/losses due to interest rate changes.  Instead of focusing on the term of the LT bonds, it might make more sense to f...
by jimbojones
Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Will Make You Not Want To Stock Pick (Historical DJIA Components)
Replies: 50
Views: 23098

Re: This Will Make You Not Want To Stock Pick (Historical DJIA Components)

Why not just let your VTI grow and convert to dividend-paying stocks later on? Because if your index fund is high, the market is high, and dividend stocks will also be high.  If you convert all at once you will get a very low average yield.  For example, the typical financial planner "safe" withdra...
by jimbojones
Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:52 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial
Replies: 129
Views: 242624

Re: Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial

... 4. In talking to the bond desk at TDA, it seems that trades are "free." The commission is from slight mark-up price which the person estimated to be about 3/8% on a 10k trade. If so, it takes about 2.5 years for the ER of TLT to equal the same. Does this sound right? That seems relatively high....
by jimbojones
Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:42 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial
Replies: 129
Views: 242624

Re: Treasury Bond Buying Tutorial

1NV35T0R (Greg) wrote: Perhaps I'm somehow missing it but does Vanguard sell STRIPS? I know Fidelity does but I haven't found them on Vanguard yet.
Yes, one option to get there is:

Buy & Sell > View and trade bonds or CDs > Treasuries > Treasury type > Strips
by jimbojones
Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This Will Make You Not Want To Stock Pick (Historical DJIA Components)
Replies: 50
Views: 23098

Re: This Will Make You Not Want To Stock Pick (Historical DJIA Components)

Why not just let your VTI grow and convert to dividend-paying stocks later on?  A higher rate of return will result in more shares of dividend-paying stocks.  So... the quickest way to your goal is to get the highest return on your portfolio.  Adjust for your risk tolerance, as necessary.  It makes ...
by jimbojones
Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: probability of PP losses next year.
Replies: 15
Views: 8581

Re: probability of PP losses next year.

Turns out the rolling 12-month graph was from the "Sorry guys, I broke PP" thread:

http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/in ... ic=3384.60

Slotine's graph only went back to 2000, but it would be interesting to see 40 years of rolling 12-month data. 
by jimbojones
Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: probability of PP losses next year.
Replies: 15
Views: 8581

Re: probability of PP losses next year.

The problem is choosing the end points of the year. Your question is based on the common fallacy of caring about what happens from Jan 1 through Dec 31. If you look at 2008/2009, the PP did something like +0.2% one of those years (I forgot which was the really bad one). However, Long Term Treasurie...
by jimbojones
Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: probability of PP losses next year.
Replies: 15
Views: 8581

Re: probability of PP losses next year.

Image

Thanks for the tip, Pointedstick!
by jimbojones
Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: probability of PP losses next year.
Replies: 15
Views: 8581

Re: probability of PP losses next year.

Xan wrote: Are PP returns normally distributed, though?
It isn't perfect, but the returns are bell-shaped.  I made a histogram and I'd post the picture here, but I don't know how.
by jimbojones
Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: probability of PP losses next year.
Replies: 15
Views: 8581

Re: probability of PP losses next year.

Using the PP return data on the website, the arithmetic mean return is 9.945% with a standard deviation of 7.99%.  A return of 0% is 1.244 standard deviations below the mean.  That roughly translates to the 10.7th percentile.  So from a purely statistical perspective, I'd say there's a 10.7% chance ...
by jimbojones
Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 14% LTT's
Replies: 19
Views: 9155

Re: 14% LTT's

You're falling into the same trap as the dividend people with the yield-on-cost.  The LTT's bought 30 years ago are not currently yielding 14%, they are yielding the current rate of 2.8%.  The reason for this is the price of the old 30 year LTT has increased to the point where its coupon is yieldin...
by jimbojones
Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is it worth it to buy bonds with a higher coupon?
Replies: 7
Views: 3922

Re: Is it worth it to buy bonds with a higher coupon?

Harry Browne said to buy the bond with the lower coupon.  The price will, of course, reflect the yield differential, but Browne said that the lower coupon bond should be slightly more volatile. Wait - the lowest coupon bond is a zero-coupon bond.  I didn't think we were supposed to go after those. ...
by jimbojones
Mon Sep 24, 2012 8:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 3753

Re: Risk Parity Investing

The problem with risk parity is that it's backward-looking. How do you know those parities will continue into the future? You don't. The PP is more robust because you're not measuring historical data whose trend may change, you're logically understanding which asset classes intrinsically perform we...
by jimbojones
Mon Sep 24, 2012 8:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 3753

Re: Risk Parity Investing

HA - I just came on here to post the same thing.  The best thing is one of the last quotes of the article: "In fact, Partridge says, individuals can capture most of the benefits of risk parity investing by simple putting 25% of their funds into four different ETFs that match its key asset classes, s...
by jimbojones
Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 13887

Re: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts

I recommend filling up your tax-advantaged accounts will the bond allocation, then stock allocation, and finally gold. JimboJones, thanks for chiming in. While I understand the theory surrounding the taxable vs. non-taxable allocation pecking order, what I'm trying to come to grips with is how one ...
by jimbojones
Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 13887

Re: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts

And yet, here is how a bond fund distribution [vanguard] is shown http://i.imgur.com/siFNT.jpg [/quote] Yes, I see that's how Yahoo Finance reports them too.  It's easier than calling them capital gains and interest income disbursements.  But they aren't taxed as dividends.  Do you (or does anybody...
by jimbojones
Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 13887

Re: Rebalancing "Flow" between Taxable and Non-Taxable Accounts

I don't want to make my investing decisions based on speculations about what a bunch of the world's stupidest people might do in the future. LOL. Sad, but true. Regardless of what Congress does or doesn't do, your bond interest will be taxed at your marginal tax rate. Wouldn't that be at least part...