Kbg wrote: ↑

Fri May 13, 2022 8:21 am

Reminder…per HB, when the dollar does well gold will not. Gold is the risk off asset when the dollar is tanking.

Cash is king right now.

Good reminder!

“Tiny portion of a portfolio of material size” How do you define a portion of material size? Over what investing horizon? Yeah, if given a lump sum of $10M But if investing over time, $10k/year == $100k + interest, so after 10 years == 10% of a $1m portfolio Have a spouse, can get to 20% of that in ...

Are you reinvesting dividends / distributions? If so, as already paying taxes in those, maybe don’t reinvest and put the stock and LTT distributions into cash? While what I have in taxable is small, what I do to simplify the number of lots to track (I might reinvest once a year if needed to rebalance)

dualstow wrote: ↑

Thu May 12, 2022 9:28 pm

I’ve seen positive posts about gold on Bogleheads lately. You know things are bad when that happens.

Lol. Truth.

Still, nominally flat is good right now.

(Of course, not what I’d hoped it would do)

<snip a lot> Not that gold has performed like we would have expected either. Not sure why the PP YTD is down as much as it is TBH. I wonder what Budd thinks. Not Budd, but, That first sentence informs the second, no? 🙂 I hear Gold may take time to react. But, who knows. Compared to bogglehead portf...

Ha, I just sold the Intl in the GB-ish part of my portfolio, although my overall retirement portfolio is similar to your in that it’s ~50% stocks, 15% Gold, with some international in the non GB parts

Ergo, likely a great time to be in Intl!

Just didn’t seem to add anything to the GB-ish portuon

War humor (from a YT video, paraphrasing)

Ukraine has more tanks now than at the beginning of the year thanks to recent tank migrations

It's not clear to me how I-bonds are deep cash, given that they mature in 30 years. What am I missing? You mean as opposed to being deep bonds? A bond matures in 30 years and you have no option to cash out early (not including the coupon) other than selling it, and its value can gyrate wildly. The ...

40% of China’s GDP claimed to be in some state of COVID lockdown

Ouch

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/17/economy/ ... week-ahead

Life’s a bit on hold caring for elderly parents Seeing if I can max out I-Bonds Last few years been thinking about getting a new car once the chip shortage works itself out and pricing stabilizes And was thinking of doing a refinance, but didn’t get around to it with life / parent stuff Doh! Now, no...

Won’t Russia have to sell any outcome, negotiated or otherwise, of this war to the West, in order to be allowed back into regular relationships? If so, can you see a path from here to there? Especially if they intensify their war campaign? It’s sure going to be interesting, that’s for sure, given a...

How dare you sink our warship? Just for that, we’re going to bomb your capital. Crazy stuff. Isn't is more of "How dare Moscovy warship randomly catch fire and sink during special military operation. We therefor randomly like Ukraine even less. More missiles for Kiev unless they stop spontaneous co...

<snip> My personal take on the whole thing...not a good idea in the first place. But there were two good results. 1) Saddam gone 2) The whole invasion was in the context of the war on terrorism and I can attest to the fact that Iraq was a jihadi magnet for several years and we killed a butt load of...

I think that America can be foolish if it has no costs. But I am fearing for millions of people - famine - collapses of society with scarce energy. I think we are getting much closer to sacrificing our own loved ones or ourselves for Ukraine than we think. We made a mess. We installed a clown. This...

… I’m not OP, but Peter Zeihans take seems plausible — to paraphrase (probably badly), Russia wants a defensible border that is under their dominion Basically , all that was part of the Warsaw Pact. … I really need to read his Accidental Superpower. Haven’t seen his take on the current war. I need ...

I wish Biden would call up Zelinsky and tell him to end the war. 72 hours later it would be over (IMHO). But the US and Europe would have to eat some crow. Give up some regions, reverse sanctions, return seized stuff. Shake Putins hand, retract war criminal statements, remove Ukraine from considera...

So on the false flag idea.... I don't think the various atrocities are false flags by the Ukes. But when I apply the cui bono test, the Uke government benefits more than the Russian. Arguably it hurts the Russian efforts, although they might not think so. That's an important test. Heck it even has ...

I’ll look at things early May, but expect to stick with what LTT I’ve got

Not sure if I’ll have the stomach the rebalance into LTTs if needed though

Things are only going to get more interesting — energy and food supplies , but that’s a topic for a different thread

@JHogue - What is most efficient way to purchase IBonds? My goal is 5K to 10K per year, but I am not sure of the best timing - all at once - every six months - purchase at the end of a month or wait and purchase at the beginning of the month. I see the TD website offers a direct payroll deduction o...

I'd imagine that while China might not fight on the Russian "side", they might use this time to go after Taiwan while the West is distracted.

They would likely do at least some trade / co-ordination

jalanlong wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:21 pm

Cullen Roche sums it up nicely:



Roche.PNG

Possibly not the exact order I'd put it into (ha!), but, basically my sentiment. For the last few years.

what do I know?

Here is a topic for discussion. If you were President/Dictator for a day and could pass one piece of legislation to significantly change the country for what you believe is the better, what would that legislation be? I will go first. Mine would be legislation to alert people on how much they are pa...

Here is a topic for discussion. If you were President/Dictator for a day and could pass one piece of legislation to significantly change the country for what you believe is the better, what would that legislation be? I will go first. Mine would be legislation to alert people on how much they are pa...

Remove electoral college for presidential elections (one person, one. Ote) House seats proportional representation by total votes in state (So, Presidency by people, Senate equal by state, house a bit in the middle) Min voting age 25 Ranked choice voting where applicable Corporations are not people ...

According to Quicken, my gold is down 0.6% for trailing 12 months; down 6.2% YTD I rebalanced some into Gold in May of this year, which really hurt -- most expensive Gold I've bought to date! [Edit / Note: my overall retirement allocation to Gold targets ~15%; currently closer to 12%. Yeah, performa...