Search found 684 matches

by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"
Replies: 24
Views: 16028

Re: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"

Sounds like an argument for market timing, if one can even make such an argument, doesn't it? A friend of mine who is a financial adviser (translation annuity salesman), tells me that the PP (after I introduced him to it), is like having one foot on the gas and one foot on the brake. So his point i...
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Closing the National Parks
Replies: 2
Views: 2681

Closing the National Parks

I was going to pose this question in the form of a poll but it didn't seem to fit within the limitations of this forum's software. So the question is, do you a favor a law declaring that the National Parks of the United States belong to the people of the United States and cannot be closed to public ...
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The death of JFK and the rewriting of history by the Left
Replies: 3
Views: 3976

Re: The death of JFK and the rewriting of history by the Left

I'm recording and watching "The Kennedy's" on Reelz. Greg Kinnear plays Kennedy. I expected a whitewash of the Kennedy legacy but I think it's been pretty fair so far. Didn't know that when JFK had Dr. Feelgood over to give meth-amphetamine injections, Jackie got in on the action too - if true. Most...
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries
Replies: 213
Views: 79367

Re: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries

I was just trying to figure out how the act of a government building a canal could result in people being "poorer" — which was KShartle's actual argument that I was trying to refute. If he had simply said that governments are just generally destructive, in a broader sense, I would have agreed with ...
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"
Replies: 24
Views: 16028

Re: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"

MediumTex wrote: $10 billion?

Are you sure?
Sorry, my mistake.

George Soros was the one with 10 Billion in the article I read. JR, his ex-partner is at a measly 300 milion.
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"
Replies: 24
Views: 16028

Re: Is the PP dead in light of Fama, Hansen and Shiller's "Nobel"

If economic conditions are predictable, it's not just the PP that's dead, basically the entire investing world is turned on its head. Ask yourself why the biggest, richest players aren't using this predictive model if it's correct. They don`t? Show me one big player which is currently in gold or lo...
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124017

Re: PP investors--stay the course

When you sit on the pot, think about losing everything and be ready.

Buddha say.
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: World top bankers warn of dire consequences if U.S. defaults
Replies: 0
Views: 2592

World top bankers warn of dire consequences if U.S. defaults

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/12/us-usa-fiscal-banks-idUSBRE99B09F20131012 I don't know about the rest of you but these kinds of headlines are starting to have some kind of surreal effect on me like in a Saturday Night Live comedy skit. So the world's top bankers got together and decided t...
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124017

Re: PP investors--stay the course

frommi wrote: Error #2: You assume that the Max DD of the PP has occured in the past. But what if it lies in the future and is bigger?
Oh my God! I never even thought of that.
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124017

Re: PP investors--stay the course

I can see where it's appealing to follow in the footsteps of someone like WB who has amassed a fortune of 60 billion dollars but with that much money a major stock market crash probably isn't going to have much effect on his retirement plan. I wish I lived in that universe but I don't which is why I...
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Nothing HAS to happen?
Replies: 16
Views: 5821

Re: Nothing HAS to happen?

I think I'll stick with HB's original saying. Even if it's true that if we keep going in the same direction we will end up in the place we predict, there is no way to know whether we will keep going in that direction or not and worrying about it will drive you crazy. As for the MR adherents in the f...
by notsheigetz
Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:52 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: GRAVITY
Replies: 22
Views: 12954

Re: GRAVITY

SPOILER ALERT!!! I'm not completely sure that Sandra Bullock didn't die at some point after her hallucination of George Clooney making it back.  Such a hallucination would be consistent with a person dying, and much of what happened afterward seemed a little less believable than what came before.  ...
by notsheigetz
Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries
Replies: 213
Views: 79367

Re: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries

Okay, I waded through the 9 pages of speculation and pontification here and the 13 on the thread about this I started earlier. Now what I want to know is who's actually planning on diversifying their 30 year U.S. Treasuries with long-term British and Japanese debt, and who's planning on turning the...
by notsheigetz
Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The death of JFK and the rewriting of history by the Left
Replies: 3
Views: 3976

Re: The death of JFK and the rewriting of history by the Left

This November will be the 50th anniversary of the event so I suspect we'll be inundated with TV programs. I was in a freshman English class in the high school library when news came over the loudspeaker before we were sent home early. As I grow older I get more skeptical of conspiracy theories but a...
by notsheigetz
Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124017

Re: PP investors--stay the course

This is a joke, right? Why even frequent this board if there is no chance that you will ascribe to the philosophy. You, sir are the ine that is waisting your time. You sound young and naive, I was that way before I made my first million. Gz for making that million. I studied the PP for around 2-3 m...
by notsheigetz
Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: GRAVITY
Replies: 22
Views: 12954

Re: GRAVITY

I think the big difference for me was that I actually was in a typhoon in the South China sea (interestingly around the same time as the Apollo 13 misadventure), so the effect it had on me was that of rekindling a memory. Something tells me there is a small hoard of gold somewhere at the bottom of ...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 5:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP investors--stay the course
Replies: 282
Views: 124017

Re: PP investors--stay the course

I have been invested in the PP since 2011. I would feel more comfortable having 45% in equities and IT-Treasuries with only 10% allocated to Gold. I dont envision having the intestinal fortitude to rebalance into either Gold or LTTs when the need arises. Investing in equities after the 2008 decline...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 9:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Buying real estate....pay cash or get a mortgage?
Replies: 23
Views: 10881

Re: Buying real estate....pay cash or get a mortgage?

I'm in the don't pay it off camp, but like Craig and others have said it's more about psychology than rational investing. The idea of owning a house free and clear is nice but I just feel better having the money sitting in my PP. Plus I don't get attached to things like houses. After a few years liv...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 9:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries
Replies: 213
Views: 79367

Re: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries

They're all political animals. What are you advocating they should do? Yes they are. It's all above my pay grade but I would advocate doing what they are probably going to end up doing any way and that is to work out some sort of compromise that lets them all save face. The bottom line for me is do...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 8:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries
Replies: 213
Views: 79367

Re: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries

What gets me is that according to MMR, as I understand it, comparing a sovereign government that issues its own currency to a household or a business is wrong because it can always pay its debts unless it chooses not to. Surely Mr. Obama and Mr. Lew are not believers in Austrian economics, but hold ...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pope Francis and a Eucharistic Miracle
Replies: 55
Views: 19894

Re: Pope Francis and a Eucharistic Miracle

Did you have a favorite book?  I'd have to say Genesis. I never cared a whit about reconciling it with science and literal history like a lot of people try to do. I think they are missing the point. Even if you don't take it literally it has an amazing cast of characters and stories full of symboli...
by notsheigetz
Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:22 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries
Replies: 213
Views: 79367

Re: So much for the "risk-free" nature of Treasuries

I really can't get my head around what is going on here. I've always been of the opinion that the U.S. would never default on its debt except in an extreme SHTF scenario. I actually still believe that, so what is the point of this game of chicken? Personally, I'm sitting on about 60k of T-bills that...
by notsheigetz
Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Pope Francis and a Eucharistic Miracle
Replies: 55
Views: 19894

Re: Pope Francis and a Eucharistic Miracle

IMHO, the test of religion should be whether it makes you feel better, not whether it is "true." I didn't choose this path to gain a more comfy life, or to add a religious decoration to my life's living room.  I'm a Christian because I believe the Bible is true. I sometimes wish that I could get ba...
by notsheigetz
Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Police Officer told not to drop off child at school while in uniform
Replies: 18
Views: 8057

Re: Police Officer told not to drop off child at school while in uniform

We're in trouble as a nation because style matter more than substance and because perception drives reality. Why?  Because people won't stop and think-- preferring rather to allow their emotions to rule the day. Damn, I must be getting old. Which side of this debate is the "stop and think" side and...