Search found 190 matches

by LazyInvestor
Thu May 23, 2019 1:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 24423

What have we learned over last 10 years?

This forum has been active for the last 10 years or so. There've been many interesting discussions. I'm curious what new have we learned with respect to the theoretical foundations behind the PP? It seems to me it's standing the test of time despite its lower performance compared to the generally re...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Old HB radio show about Gold
Replies: 14
Views: 4417

Re: Old HB radio show about Gold

This is a critical point. That's why in a number of my previous posts I encouraged non-US investors to stick with a Bogleheads portfolio if they are not willing to run US PP. In recent times, USD was strengthening and gold was not of much help for anyone from Venezuela to Canada. Most of non-US inve...
by LazyInvestor
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European ETF Alternatives
Replies: 10
Views: 11151

Re: European ETF Alternatives

I'd guess these are broker restrictions. Open an account with another and it should work. Be aware of estate taxes since you are buying US-domiciled ETFs. Unfortunately, not broker restrictions, but just a decision by US fund managers not to comply (at least for now) with EU regulation. It seems th...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: European ETF Alternatives
Replies: 10
Views: 11151

Re: European ETF Alternatives

I'd guess these are broker restrictions. Open an account with another and it should work. Be aware of estate taxes since you are buying US-domiciled ETFs.
by LazyInvestor
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:35 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)
Replies: 12
Views: 5543

Re: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)

This seems to be US domiciled ETF. Do they have any equivalent ETF domiciled elsewhere?
by LazyInvestor
Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: In a small country (Sweden) that has severe limitations, what is the "next best" to Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 11126

Re: In a small country (Sweden) that has severe limitations, what is the "next best" to Permanent Portfolio?

For most of my European colleagues who live in high taxation big social welfare countries, I'd suggest to take into account what they have guaranteed from government as their fixed income. When they do this they realize that PP is way too conservative for them. Most of them have quite big chunk of v...
by LazyInvestor
Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Catalonia
Replies: 6
Views: 3248

Re: Catalonia

Seem reasonable. ---------------------- Of course, gold apparently could not care less about what's going on, continuing to drop to nearer to your 1260! What a screwy world we live in. Gold is not supposed to care here. Pay attention to USD in the cases of international geopolitical issues. (Gold c...
by LazyInvestor
Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP
Replies: 12
Views: 6538

Re: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP

Considering all this, I would recommend to take out of the PP equation the the public pensions. Sure, if you are a pessimist wrt future payment of pensions, then by all means run a PP or some other more conservative Bogleheads portfolio. As I discussed in my previous posts, I'd have only US PP beca...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP
Replies: 12
Views: 6538

Re: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP

OK. You're young, at the beginning of your career, living in a country with a very strong social safety net, so you can definitely take on more risk with your investments IMO. If I were you, I'd pay into the retirement fund, and then "aggressively" invest using one of more aggressive Bogleheads-styl...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP
Replies: 12
Views: 6538

Re: Looking for feedback for EU/US PP

I believe an average German has lots of capital in the various current and future social benefits and comparatively quite low savings rate. What I would do in your case is to first calculate how much I have in savings compared to the value of the social security benefits. Then I would decide how ris...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:49 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Europe -- CDs versus T-Bills
Replies: 9
Views: 6680

Re: Europe -- CDs versus T-Bills

What's the reason for such low yields? They seem lower than what they had even during the great depression.

I doubt it's uniform throughout the whole EU (e.g., Greece should be paying more). Why don't you lend your cash to a reasonable larger EU country which pays a more reasonable amount?
by LazyInvestor
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?
Replies: 10
Views: 5988

Re: The year is 1900. What is your "permanent" portfolio?

Talmudic portfolio 1/3 business 1/3 land/real estate 1/3 gold
by LazyInvestor
Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

Yes you are right, I should have mentioned that the Krona devalued significantly, which makes the seemingly fantastic nominal returns of the Icelandic PP in 2008 misleading. The PP didn't make anyone rich in 2008, let's be clear about that: but it would have saved your ass, even with the devaluatio...
by LazyInvestor
Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

It is easy to beat any portfolio by using hindsight to point out how an investor could have done better than any given static, passive portfolio. Not sure how I'd explain it without comparing it to anything. Let me try. It looks like the value of Icelandic currency fell for each 1 unit to 0.4. Icel...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

Are you suggesting that the HBPP does not work as advertised for international investors, then? Harry Browne never suggested that , he always advocated for following the basic PP principles as applied to whatever domestic economy you live and work in. And the PP has a long and storied history of wo...
by LazyInvestor
Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

Gold does indeed act as a "insurance policy" if a currency should fail. The concerns about a currency failing is not new. No this is not the case. HB has clearly specified it works only wrt USD. When there is significant world economy worry then money flows into the world reserve currency USD. Only...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

But how does that fix my (and other people's) worries about the low yield of long-bonds and its associated risks? If you pay even more attention to PP components you'll realize that gold is nothing but a useless metal, equity is an artificially inflated asset to give appearance that economy is supp...
by LazyInvestor
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

I'd just go with something simple like

60% VWRD
40% IEGA

or if you really want some gold:

50% VWRD
10% SGLN
40% IEGA
by LazyInvestor
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

Very discouraging answers... I do have a pension that's indeed about 10K per year. Mortgage on the house is about 50% of the current value. But there's a personal reason I don't want stocks to be a large part of my portfolio: volatility. I'm a contractor, I've got enough risk in my life and I do no...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part
Replies: 59
Views: 31541

Re: Starting EU PP, doubts about the bonds part

I think PP is less than ideal for most Europeans. An average Western European has a solid salary but they tend to pay tons of taxes and have low after tax savings. As such, most Europeans have tons of safety net, including solid pensions. They also tend to own inherited real estate. It is critical t...
by LazyInvestor
Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Starting in Europe, questions
Replies: 19
Views: 10433

Re: Starting in Europe, questions

edit reason: misunderstood the question; it was an irrelevant comment
by LazyInvestor
Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 166
Views: 51742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I appreciate the work you are trying to do on the Bogleheads forum in that thread, but it's a waste of time. I've posted over there (in that thread even), and they are extremely close-minded. It's going to take a real sustained downturn before those guys get over their hubris. I don't mind what the...
by LazyInvestor
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 166
Views: 51742

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Bernstein was right that it's not easy sticking to PP when everyone else around you is getting rich in the equity market heavy portfolios.
by LazyInvestor
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: How Overvalued Are Stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 32242

Re: How Overvalued Are Stocks?

Bogle says expected long term equity returns are ~2% real taking into account overvaluation.

I don't follow this since according to his formula, for example, European market should return the same but if I look at the charts European has under-performed US significantly.
by LazyInvestor
Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 149558

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

What are other reasonable SCV alternatives in a portfolio such as this? For example, plugging in 10% REITS 10% EM gives me pretty much the same results as SCV and it seems more diversified?