Search found 409 matches

by iwealth
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 56
Views: 34967

Re: Minimum time frame for holding PP

How's everyone enjoying their false protection? Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets. That sums it up succinctly, nice job! I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I d...
by iwealth
Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656220

Re: The GOLD scream room

Budd, you've known for years that the PP does not do what you want it to do. You want it to zig while stocks zag on an intraday basis. It does not do that. And it's creating a massive drag on your returns during one of the greatest and longest bull markets in history. Why would you allocate any of t...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 114
Views: 57784

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

I see; so when there’s fear the masses run to BTC. That makes sense now. Can’t tell if you are being serious because nobody said anything close to that. Bitcoin dropped 25% between 2/5 and 2/6 during the most volatile market day in a decade. The masses ran out of bitcoin far faster than any other a...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 114
Views: 57784

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

Let me be clear, I am not advocating buying BTC but merely pointing out on a day where the DOW fell 1000+ points BTC rose 10% while Gold only 0.24% That doesn't seem unusual to anyone on this forum? Think about that for a moment. Techno, not sure what you are talking about but you missed the point ...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 423503

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Sorry this happened to you kbg. This was actually a fascinating case study. Here's what I took away from it: I'm going to use the term "M1/M2" to represent the basket of VIX futures XIV inversely tracks. Intraday XIV only has a hypothetical NAV. CS isn't wheeling and dealing M1/M2 all day long. They...
by iwealth
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 359799

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Good to see iwealth writing again! I think I last saw you write about leaving gold saying you “get stocks”, i.e. understand them and thus presumably were about to put more in them. I’m a bit envious! I’m sticking with the pp, but I would have been fine staying in nearly all stocks in 2010 instead. ...
by iwealth
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 359799

Re: The Bond Dream Room

The technicals don't look good for TLT, but who knows? I'm definitely going to be buying some soon if this continues. I struggle to find a good investment thesis for bonds right now. Wages are rising, inflation next? The economy is humming. Earnings are excellent. Tax reform done. Recession isn't o...
by iwealth
Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350386

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

buddtholomew wrote:Thanks Tyler.
I am trying to identify an asset that correlates well with a rising dollar and so far only UUP ETF appears to meet the requirement.
I have no way of testing this, but I bet you'd be better off shorting a basket of international currencies. Easily done through a brokerage like IB.
by iwealth
Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656220

Re: The GOLD scream room

It was just a rant, btw. 70/30 to 30/70 was just an example. A 60/40 to all cash switch looks great in tests as well. Heck, maybe add 10% gold and do 60/30/10 when bullish switch to 90 cash/10 gold when bearish. The exact allocation isn't important. The goal would be to mitigate risk (loss) during b...
by iwealth
Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656220

Re: The GOLD scream room

More and more lately I've been considering abandoning the idea of risk parity portfolios like the PP and doing something like a 70/30 switch into a 30/70 when indicated by basic mechanical timing signals. I don't believe one can "time the market" from a day-trading perspective, but backtests show it...
by iwealth
Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 26
Views: 16750

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

27, and I also have no idea how I'd have answered some of those questions under different financial circumstances.

17, Budd, sheesh ;)
by iwealth
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329554

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Kbg wrote:and tax treatment is vastly superior in a taxable account
This wouldn't necessarily be true if you only rebalance yearly which I believe you've advocated if running a VP with the 3x ETFs...right?
by iwealth
Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 13% time to cash out?
Replies: 13
Views: 11273

Re: IMPORTANT: Use www.gyroscopicinvesting.com

Does it make sense to cash out with a 13% YTD taxable account based on the fact that historically the HBPP seldom yields over 13%. I am happy with 13% but I would pay a huge tax if I cashed out. I am retired and in the PP for the long run so I would have to buy back in Jan 2017. This means I would ...
by iwealth
Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385527

Re: Figuring Out Religion

People don’t need to feel as though they need to choose between belief in God and holding to scientific truths. There is a better alternative: studying the ever-increasing scientific evidence with an open mind to the very real possibility of God’s existence. https://cccdiscover.com/5-reasons-why-sc...
by iwealth
Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329554

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Good example. AND, you also need to start out when the funds are fresh or split to make them more even. Doing this strategy now with DUST at $5 and NUGT at $154, well, they are already severely unbalanced. Due to the nature of these instruments, this should not matter as long as you buy equivalent ...
by iwealth
Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329554

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Hasn't kbg already shown that for trending non/inversely correlated assets, the decay actually works in your favor? I'd be most worried when all PP assets are in a sideways market. The problem is that these correlations are not consistent and positive correlations between assets can last for extend...
by iwealth
Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329554

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Also keep in mind that a falling 3x leveraged instrument will approach zero rather quickly so if the underlying asset rebounds, you will not participate in proportionate gains. Quick example: If the underlying asset price is 100 and it falls 30% to 70 then rises 50% to 105. The 3x ETF is 100 and it ...
by iwealth
Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385527

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Similar to the last C.S. Lewis quote above, my Pastor said yesterday in his Sermon titled Team God, you are either on Team God/Team Jesus (believers in the promises) or on Team Satan (everyone else). He preached a great sermon on how our current culture tries to say everyone is OK, we are all the s...
by iwealth
Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trading Options with the PP
Replies: 14
Views: 8970

Re: Trading Options with the PP

What about the value of buying put options for your own stock, bond and gold funds, termed a year out? It's not uncommon in PP to have one stinker and two productive assets each year, with cash always being roughly flat. I haven't looked at an option table for years, but do the numbers for buying p...
by iwealth
Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385527

Re: Figuring Out Religion

To the big dismay of my mother, who literally thought my children were damned and were going to grow horns and be terrible people if I did not baptize them (I did not and they are fine). She's learned to live with it as she's gotten older. I also grew up Catholic and parted ways with religion long ...
by iwealth
Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385527

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Forgive my random question, but you are an anomaly to me. In my life, I've had very little exposure to people with true unwavering devotion to faith. If you present enough scenarios, it's usually simple to find the one that breaks the camel's back. You are lucky that what you believe in so unconditi...
by iwealth
Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385527

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Mountaineer,

Sorry if this seems like it's coming out of left field, and perhaps you've addressed it somewhere in this thread, but can you conceive of any event occurring in your life or another's that would change your faith?
by iwealth
Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trading Options with the PP
Replies: 14
Views: 8970

Re: Trading Options with the PP

- If you are forced to buy the stock at $80 you could immediately begin selling covered calls to generate income while trying to get out of the stock. I did this a few weeks ago with GILD... All that said, can anyone think of another downside to the strategy that I'm missing, other than the time co...
by iwealth
Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trading Options with the PP
Replies: 14
Views: 8970

Re: Trading Options with the PP

Hey everyone, Just curious if any of you have used options to manage risk and increase income inside your PP. Since cash is earning 0% right now it looks like selling puts on stocks you wouldn't mind owning could generate a reasonable return of 5-10% per year. That's my first idea, anyone else doin...
by iwealth
Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fudged Numbers Support Claims of Gender Gap in Salaries
Replies: 39
Views: 17612

Re: Fudged Numbers Support Claims of Gender Gap in Salaries

Apparently you have discovered a market anomaly: a profitable opportunity that no one is seizing. In that case, you should have no trouble with the following plan, which will in fact be greatly aided by your gender. Just open your own competing law firm, hiring women only, and pay them 90% as much ...